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      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      19/2/2024 Research EN

      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      The EU’s revised fiscal rules are inadequate with respect to high green, digital and defence investment needs and would result in significant fiscal adjustments and cuts in public investment at a time when the economic growth outlook is already weak.

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      12/2/2024 Research EN

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      Germany’s energy-intensive industries, low investment, ageing population, weak growth and geopolitical vulnerabilities, rather than high government debt, represent long-term challenges to its AAA credit rating – hence the need to reform the debt brake.

      Hungary: credit ratings constrained by uncertainty over EU funds, elevated public debt

      6/2/2024 Research EN

      Hungary: credit ratings constrained by uncertainty over EU funds, elevated public debt

      Lingering uncertainty regarding the inflow of substantial EU funds and still-elevated public debt are the main constraints on Hungary's credit ratings otherwise supported by the economy’s strong investment-led growth.

      European Sub-Sovereign Outlook: risks balanced as crisis support eases, growth recovers

      5/2/2024 Research EN

      European Sub-Sovereign Outlook: risks balanced as crisis support eases, growth recovers

      Germany’s Länder have rushed to tap bond markets in early 2024, tapping strong investor demand for European sub-sovereign debt, reflecting the turning interest-rate cycle but also the broadly balanced risks facing issuers across the region this year.

      France: cabinet reshuffle reinvigorates government; rebuilding reform momentum remains difficult

      30/1/2024 Research EN

      France: cabinet reshuffle reinvigorates government; rebuilding reform momentum remains difficult

      French President Emmanuel Macron’s change of prime minister confirms the difficulty of securing parliamentary approval for further reforms. Any loss in momentum risks leaving some of France’s key credit challenges unaddressed.

      Scope publishes updated sovereign methodology following call for comments

      29/1/2024 Research EN

      Scope publishes updated sovereign methodology following call for comments

      Scope Ratings has updated its Sovereign Rating Methodology following the call for comments period, which concluded on 14 January 2024. The changes to the revised methodology could impact about seven sovereign ratings assigned by Scope.

      African sovereigns: Morocco is better placed than South Africa to tackle economic challenges ahead

      24/1/2024 Research FR

      African sovereigns: Morocco is better placed than South Africa to tackle economic challenges ahead

      Morocco is emerging from the Covid and inflation shocks in a stronger fiscal and economic position than South Africa, even though both middle-income, non-investment grade sovereigns had similar strengths and weaknesses pre-Covid, says Scope Ratings.

      CEE Sovereign Outlook: Recovering growth, diverging fiscal paths, and persistent geopolitical risks

      17/1/2024 Research EN

      CEE Sovereign Outlook: Recovering growth, diverging fiscal paths, and persistent geopolitical risks

      We are projecting a rebound in CEE growth from an expected, weak 0.7% in 2023 to 2.5% this year and 3% in 2025. Growth will be driven by lower inflation and higher real wages. The contribution of exports will be limited owing to weak external demand.

      Türkiye’s economic and financial risks eased by recent shift towards policy normalisation

      17/1/2024 Research EN

      Türkiye’s economic and financial risks eased by recent shift towards policy normalisation

      The shift of Türkiye’s monetary policy after the general elections last year has reduced the risks of a deeper balance-of-payments and/or financial crisis. If sustained and carefully managed, current policy would improve longer-run credit fundamentals.

      Sovereign Outlook: Soft landing, turn of the global rate cycle balance fiscal and geopolitical risks

      15/12/2023 Research EN

      Sovereign Outlook: Soft landing, turn of the global rate cycle balance fiscal and geopolitical risks

      Scope’s baseline for 2024 is for a soft landing for the global economy, a turn of the global rate cycle, fiscal pressure from an ageing population, green transition and defence needs, and ongoing geopolitical risk.