Les économies mondiale et européenne demeurent résilientes, même en tenant compte du ralentissement mondial modéré de 2025. Mais les risques pesant sur la reprise augmentent, soulignant des perspectives négatives à moyen terme.

The global and European economies have been resilient in recent years even accounting for the modest global slowdown of 2025. But risks for the recovery are rising, underscoring a negative medium-run global macro and credit outlook.

Elevated geopolitical tensions, deeper political polarisation and persistent fiscal challenges outweigh the potential for stronger growth and instances of fiscal resilience, driving our overall negative sovereign credit outlook.

France’s intrinsic resilience underpins our four-notch rating differential with Italy, as similar funding conditions contrast with different budgetary dynamics and governance challenges, although rating convergence is now more likely in the years ahead.

Tuesday, November 25th 2025 - 3:00 PM (CET)

Scope seeks market participants’ feedback on analytical developments

Webinar: Wednesday, November 5th 2025 - 3:00 PM (CET)

The claim that Europe’s gradual economic and geopolitical decline is irreversible is overstated. But it will require a strategic political shift to change the current trajectory.

Climate change can materially affect the creditworthiness of all issuer types and asset classes, so we have harmonised our general framework for capturing this risk, which can be applied to produce issuer-specific Key Climate Risk Indicators (KCRIs).

With only slowly recovering economic growth and structurally high interest costs, Hungary needs sustained fiscal discipline to ensure budget deficits narrow gradually and debt-to-GDP stabilises before and after parliamentary elections due next spring.