Announcements
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22/9/2023 Research EN
Scope Ratings’ macroeconomic forecasts now available on Macrobond and LSEG Eikon
The presence on Macrobond and Eikon improves investor access to Scope’s economic forecasts for 40 countries, including EU member states, the United States, China, Japan and the UK. Scope has also joined the Reuters consensus forecasting group.
19/9/2023 Research EN
Germany: uneven demographic trends weigh on medium-term growth as near-term downturn worsens
Germany faces a sharp cyclical slowdown and structural limits on growth, given adverse demographic trends, which are playing out unevenly across the country. The federal government has begun reforms, which should be complemented by the Länder.
12/9/2023 Research EN
France: annual spending review is credit positive but no substitute for in-depth reforms
France has reinforced fiscal discipline with the commitment to more regular government-spending reviews, but gains are likely to be modest without deeper reform given upward pressure on social spending, growing investment needs, and rising interest costs.
6/9/2023 Research EN
Spain: political deadlock clouds investment outlook, with risks for growth, fiscal consolidation
Delays in forming a new government in Spain after inconclusive elections in July could slow the deployment of EU funds, an important catalyst for new investment projects, thereby holding back economic growth and pressuring public finances.
1/9/2023 Research EN
China: rising debt, lower growth and financial imbalances test shift to consumption-led economy
The risk of policy mistakes has increased as China’s authorities try to tackle financial imbalances, including high local government debt, while shifting towards a consumption-led growth model through structural reforms.
25/8/2023 Research EN
Türkiye to pursue policy shift with large rate hike but hefty inflation challenge remains
The Turkish central bank’s unexpectedly hawkish shift in policy helps rebuild credibility in inflation targeting but fast-rising consumer prices will test the commitment to the current monetary stance given previous politically motivated reversals.
16/8/2023 Research EN
Greece Q&A: Investment grade is an exceptional achievement but multiple challenges remain
Scope senior writer Keith Mullin interviews Dennis Shen, lead analyst for Greece, after the upgrade of Greece to an investment-grade (IG) rating of BBB-, concerning Greece’s institutional environment, reforms, and challenges for the ratings moving ahead.
4/8/2023 Research EN
Credit Lines: Renewed focus on central bank balance sheets will tighten financial conditions
Peak rates, falling inflation and prospects for a soft landing have led to an easing of financial conditions but the effects of central banks’ balance sheets will burden financial conditions beyond the current rate cycle.
25/7/2023 Research EN
CEE Mid-Year Sovereign Outlook: inflation subsides but economic recovery remains fragile
High headline inflation will continue to decline in the 11 EU countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-11), but tight monetary policy and weak external demand mute the economic recovery.