Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

Political uncertainty in Romania is complicating fiscal consolidation, raising borrowing costs and delaying reforms linked to EU funding while shifts in United States trade and security policy add further challenges to the fiscal and growth outlooks.

Italy’s economy is set to grow more slowly in 2025-26 given US tariffs and delays in recovery-plan investments. Still, reforms and continuing EU-fund deployment should support medium-term growth after 2026.

Three scenarios for the sovereign credit outlook have emerged from the uncertainty over US trade policy – "tariff-light", trade war, or a wider economic and financial crisis including the introduction of US capital controls – says Scope Ratings.

Unless Austria’s government undertakes additional reforms to stabilise and reverse rising public debt, public finances will continue to weaken given the modest economic growth outlook and sustained fiscal pressures.

The balance of risks for the global credit outlook remains negative. The United States government’s wide-ranging new import tariffs have increased the likelihood of domestic recession and exacerbated global economic and financial vulnerabilities.

Scope affirmed the UK’s AA ratings on 28 March and kept the Stable Outlook. But fiscal deterioration and weaker debt sustainability increase risks to the rating, while 10% US tariffs on UK exports and 25% on steel and aluminium harm UK growth.

The impact of higher financial and political volatility on Türkiye’s credit ratings will mostly depend on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response and the consequences of any potential shifts in domestic economic policy.

Germany’s ample fiscal space to finance higher defence spending by issuing debt contrasts with the more constrained public finances in France and the United Kingdom unless both governments make significant budgetary adjustments.

Spain's proposed EUR 83bn debt relief for autonomous communities, equal to 25% of total regional debt, is credit-positive as it will reduce the regions’ debt burden but it risks moral hazard, underscoring the need for financing reform.