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      France: higher-than-expected 2023 deficit tests ability to achieve fiscal targets

      28/3/2024 Research EN

      France: higher-than-expected 2023 deficit tests ability to achieve fiscal targets

      France faces important fiscal, social and political hurdles to finding additional savings in the next four years, challenging the timely execution of its medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy ahead of the 2027 elections.

      Georgia ratings constrained by geopolitical sensitivities, institutional risks

      27/3/2024 Research EN

      Georgia ratings constrained by geopolitical sensitivities, institutional risks

      Georgia’s recently-affirmed sovereign ratings are anchored by a robust public-debt structure, declining government debt and strong growth. Still, heightened geopolitical risk and persistent domestic institutional challenges are core rating constraints.

      Portugal’s government formation to test political stability, economic and fiscal prospects

      22/3/2024 Research EN

      Portugal’s government formation to test political stability, economic and fiscal prospects

      Inconclusive elections in Portugal, marked by an extreme right-wing party’s emergence as the third largest in parliament, have led to a minority coalition administration taking office. Finding consensus on reforms and fiscal policies will be challenging.

      Egypt: devaluation, financial support mitigate near-term risks, but challenges remain

      18/3/2024 Research EN

      Egypt: devaluation, financial support mitigate near-term risks, but challenges remain

      Egypt has improved its near-term finances by attracting foreign investment, devaluing the pound and securing more IMF support, but converting those gains into more sustainable long-term economic policy remains central for reversing the rating trajectory.

      Spain’s fiscal challenges persist amid political impasse; weak productivity remains economic concern

      13/3/2024 Research EN

      Spain’s fiscal challenges persist amid political impasse; weak productivity remains economic concern

      Spain's polarised national politics, evident in the lack of consensus for approving this year’s budget, could compromise the country's robust economic growth momentum. Enhancing productivity is crucial to offset rising welfare spending and pension costs.

      Italy: partial privatisations would reduce debt-to-GDP only at the margin; deeper reforms required

      6/3/2024 Research EN

      Italy: partial privatisations would reduce debt-to-GDP only at the margin; deeper reforms required

      Italy’s public debt of around 137% of GDP is unlikely to decline despite expected primary budget surpluses from 2025 and planned asset sales, underpinning the need for deploying EU funds successfully and containing state spending to reduce public debt.

      Continued debt reduction and structural reforms crucial for Greece’s sovereign-rating trajectory

      5/3/2024 Research EN

      Continued debt reduction and structural reforms crucial for Greece’s sovereign-rating trajectory

      Further upside for Greece’s credit rating hinges on robust nominal economic growth, deeper fiscal consolidation, more reform of the country’s banking system and structural economic reform compensating for years of public and private under-investment.

      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      19/2/2024 Research EN

      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      The EU’s revised fiscal rules are inadequate with respect to high green, digital and defence investment needs and would result in significant fiscal adjustments and cuts in public investment at a time when the economic growth outlook is already weak.

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      12/2/2024 Research EN

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      Germany’s energy-intensive industries, low investment, ageing population, weak growth and geopolitical vulnerabilities, rather than high government debt, represent long-term challenges to its AAA credit rating – hence the need to reform the debt brake.

      Hungary: credit ratings constrained by uncertainty over EU funds, elevated public debt

      6/2/2024 Research EN

      Hungary: credit ratings constrained by uncertainty over EU funds, elevated public debt

      Lingering uncertainty regarding the inflow of substantial EU funds and still-elevated public debt are the main constraints on Hungary's credit ratings otherwise supported by the economy’s strong investment-led growth.