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      France: government collapse raises fiscal, political uncertainties

      5/12/2024 Research EN

      France: government collapse raises fiscal, political uncertainties

      The collapse of the French government will delay near-term fiscal consolidation and far-reaching reforms. France’s institutional safeguards should prevent a budget stalemate, but prolonged political gridlock could be credit negative.

      Sovereign Outlook 2025: robust fundamentals, rising fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainty

      5/12/2024 Research EN

      Sovereign Outlook 2025: robust fundamentals, rising fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainty

      Normalising global economic fundamentals partially offset rising fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainty in 2025, ensuring a balanced overall sovereign credit outlook, says Scope Ratings.

      Ukraine: geopolitical events likely to increase role of supranational institutions

      28/11/2024 Research EN

      Ukraine: geopolitical events likely to increase role of supranational institutions

      Developments in Ukraine amid possible shifts in US foreign, defence and energy policy will be pivotal in determining European supranationals’ strategies and disbursements next year.

      Webinar: Trump 2.0 and the outlook for sovereign, bank and corporate credit

      22/11/2024 Research EN

      Webinar: Trump 2.0 and the outlook for sovereign, bank and corporate credit

      Tuesday, 3 December 2024, 15:30 CET

      Supranational Outlook 2025: credit quality remains strong amid rising geopolitical challenges

      21/11/2024 Research EN

      Supranational Outlook 2025: credit quality remains strong amid rising geopolitical challenges

      The credit rating Outlooks for supranational institutions and multilateral development banks (MDBs) rated by Scope remain Stable, signalling that risks facing the high-rated issuers are balanced going into the new year despite geopolitical uncertainties.

      France’s credit strengths balance increasingly challenging fiscal, political outlooks

      14/11/2024 Research EN

      France’s credit strengths balance increasingly challenging fiscal, political outlooks

      As challenging as France’s fiscal and political outlooks are, the country’s underlying credit strengths include a favourable profile of government debt – for which there is ample investor appetite – a resilient economy and well-capitalised banks.

      Germany: stable government needed to address shifts in US policy and raise growth outlook

      7/11/2024 Research EN

      Germany: stable government needed to address shifts in US policy and raise growth outlook

      Germany needs a stable and reform-oriented government to respond to the impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s potential policy shifts that will impact Germany’s trade, fiscal and defence policies.

      US: clear Trump victory raises medium-term credit risks despite reduction of near-term uncertainty

      7/11/2024 Research EN

      US: clear Trump victory raises medium-term credit risks despite reduction of near-term uncertainty

      Donald Trump’s emphatic victory in the US presidential elections is net credit negative for the US in the medium term by raising financial risks although nearer-term implications for the economy are more mixed.

      UK: budget aims for growth but easing of fiscal rules raises credit concerns

      1/11/2024 Research EN

      UK: budget aims for growth but easing of fiscal rules raises credit concerns

      The UK budget sets an ambitious growth-oriented approach, but questions remain over its ability to meaningfully boost long-run economic growth. The easing of budgetary constraints and reduced monetary flexibility pose credit challenges.

      United States: debt-ceiling crises and fiscal imbalances cloud outlook despite strengths

      28/10/2024 Research EN

      United States: debt-ceiling crises and fiscal imbalances cloud outlook despite strengths

      Public finances in the US remain the main macro-economic challenge, which, in the context of the country’s flawed fiscal framework and political polarisation, will continue to deteriorate, but to different degrees depending on the election outcome.