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      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      22/5/2024 Research EN

      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      With better-than-expected operating conditions, 2024 looks favourable for Italian banks. However, latent risks persist, as evidenced by developments around eco tax credits.

      United Kingdom: rising debt a key long-term rating risk

      22/5/2024 Research EN

      United Kingdom: rising debt a key long-term rating risk

      The UK likely faces rising public-debt levels after forthcoming general elections, given a lack of priority to change policy. Even though the UK benefits from among the world’s most-significant debt tolerance, rising debt poses a long-term rating risk.

      Italy: tax breaks, investment delays, rising debt-to-GDP increase the need for fiscal consolidation

      17/5/2024 Research EN

      Italy: tax breaks, investment delays, rising debt-to-GDP increase the need for fiscal consolidation

      Italy’s government needs to devise and implement a credible, medium-term fiscal consolidation plan to stabilise public debt given the challenges of high interest costs, excessive past tax incentives, and delays in growth-enhancing recovery plan spending.

      Scope publishes updated supranational methodology and calls for comments

      10/5/2024 Research EN

      Scope publishes updated supranational methodology and calls for comments

      Scope Ratings requests comments on its Supranational Rating Methodology by 10 June 2024. The proposed changes to the methodology are not expected to have an impact on outstanding supranational ratings assigned by Scope.

      Webinar: Economic opportunities and challenges in CEE and European bank strategies in the region

      24/4/2024 Research EN

      Webinar: Economic opportunities and challenges in CEE and European bank strategies in the region

      May 16, 2024 15:30 (CEST)

      Euro area sovereign credit: some ratings under pressure as fiscal challenges mount

      23/4/2024 Research EN

      Euro area sovereign credit: some ratings under pressure as fiscal challenges mount

      Euro area governments unable to put in place consistent medium-term fiscal plans face credit-rating pressure even though reducing public borrowing is possible, including for highly indebted countries.

      Germany: rating outlook stable despite near-term economic stagnation and fiscal challenges

      22/4/2024 Research EN

      Germany: rating outlook stable despite near-term economic stagnation and fiscal challenges

      After five years of near-zero cumulative growth since the pandemic, Germany’s economic recovery is unlikely to accelerate without adequate policy reform and an increase in net investment, supported by its significant fiscal space.

      Middle-east crisis: geopolitics remains a downside risk for the global economic and credit outlook

      17/4/2024 Research EN

      Middle-east crisis: geopolitics remains a downside risk for the global economic and credit outlook

      A full-scale Middle-East conflict is unlikely but any further escalation of tensions would have significant adverse consequences for commodity markets and inflation, affirming geopolitical developments as a core credit challenge globally.

      Japan: improved inflation and positive effects for debt sustainability underpin Stable Outlook

      9/4/2024 Research EN

      Japan: improved inflation and positive effects for debt sustainability underpin Stable Outlook

      Japan’s sovereign Outlook was revised to Stable from Negative on 22 March due to higher inflation and its positive effects on debt sustainability. Very high levels of public debt, weak growth and rising ageing-related costs remain constraining factors.

      Türkiye: opposition victory makes continuation of policy normalisation more likely

      5/4/2024 Research EN

      Türkiye: opposition victory makes continuation of policy normalisation more likely

      The setback for Türkiye’s ruling AKP party in local elections could support a continued restrictive monetary policy stance as persistent high inflation, an important credit weakness, was a key driver of the electoral outcome.