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29/11/2023 Research EN
United Kingdom: higher taxes or growth needed to reach fiscal targets given spending pressures
The UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to rise above official forecasts given continued pressure for more welfare and government spending unless future governments raise tax revenues, reduce the welfare state or significantly improve growth prospects.

20/11/2023 Research EN
EU sovereign debt: climate but especially demographics present important long-term risk
Climate and demographic risks have an important if moderate impact on medium-term public debt trajectories for most EU countries but become increasingly credit relevant and mutually reinforcing in the long run, says Scope Ratings.

20/11/2023 Research EN
Commerzbank's updated strategy promises profitable future; implementation will be challenging
Commerzbank’s new three-year growth plan is reliant on durably favourable interest rates, ambitious revenue gains in private and corporate banking, plus benign banking-sector competition and buoyant activity in Germany, leaving room for disappointment.

17/11/2023 Research EN
Germany: strict debt-brake application fosters discipline but EUR 300bn investment lag remains
The constitutional court ruling underlines Germany’s strong fiscal framework but complicates the government’s ability to address persistent under-investment, which we estimate at around EUR 300bn over the past decade vis-a-vis AAA-rated economies.

16/11/2023 Research EN
Euro area: a potential oil-price shock could weaken growth, increase inflation and test ratings
A wider Middle East conflict could adversely impact the credit ratings of some euro-area sovereigns if this resulted in higher commodity prices, leading to further monetary policy tightening to tame renewed rises in inflation, and thus weaker growth.

7/11/2023 Research EN
France's fiscal consolidation is challenged by rigid spending, uncertain reform agenda
The French government is counting on an end to emergency support for business and households, more efficient public spending and above-potential GDP growth to reduce public debt more quickly. It is an optimistic plan given challenges ahead.

2/11/2023 Research EN
Portugal’s declining debt and stable politics contrast with Spain, driving yield differential
Spain and Portugal, both rated A-/Stable, have shown strong resilience to the Covid-19 and energy shocks and share promising growth outlooks, but diverging debt-to-GDP trajectories leave Spain more exposed to high interest rates and political uncertainty.

23/10/2023 Research EN
Multilateral development banks: could enhancing almost EUR 1trn in callable capital boost lending?
Western-led multilateral developments banks have close to EUR 1trn in callable capital, a unique but unused source of funding, which, with appropriate enhancements, could help meet the heightened demand for loans on the banks, says Scope Ratings.

19/10/2023 Research EN
Poland: pivotal elections bring a pro-European coalition back to the fore
The Tusk coalition will have beaten the odds if it secures a parliamentary majority. But while a Tusk coalition will face significant governance and budgetary challenges, the change of government supports the country’s credit standing.

19/10/2023 Research EN
EU member states face sustained spending pressures: can EU funding or carbon taxes help?
Extra spending by EU states on interest, pensions and healthcare is limiting funds needed for defence and green investment, testing NATO spending targets and climate goals. Shifting spending to the supranational level and carbon taxes could help.