French banks have underperformed EU peers on profitability in 2024, mainly due to slower balance-sheet repricing. We expect revenue growth in 2025, but political uncertainty will weigh on market confidence and could delay the recovery in lending volumes.

Savings bank consolidation has accelerated in 2024. With integration risks and capital impacts well controlled, this is positive from a credit risk perspective given economies of scale, stronger market positions, and business and regional diversification.

UniCredit is pursuing growth both nationally and internationally. If its bid for Banco BPM is successful, it will rebalance the group’s exposure to the Italian market while reshaping the domestic competitive landscape.

Tuesday, 3 December 2024, 15:30 CET

Spanish banks enjoyed a strong Q3 driven again by high interest margins and low provisions. The challenge now is to return to steady loan growth while generating more commissions as interest margins shrink. Extension of the bank tax could erode profits.

Italian banks have revised their 2024 earnings forecasts after strong nine-month results underpinned by resilient net interest income, a rebound in fees, and solid credit quality. Lenders are now focused on stabilising profits through the rate cycle.

Homeowners in some European markets prefer floating-rate mortgages while others prefer longer-dated fixed interest rates. Given that borrowing costs are all linked to the same ECB rates, this is somewhat counter intuitive.

The recent UK Court of Appeal ruling in favour of consumers on undisclosed commissions on car finance is expected to have a moderate impact on UK banks rated by Scope, reducing profits at some banks but not posing systemic risk.

With sovereign credit quality reflecting fiscal and economic challenges, the Draghi report offered valuable insights into how to address some structural issues facing the euro area. But the report was notably silent on the contribution of covered bonds.

DNB’s acquisition of Carnegie, subject to regulatory approval, marks a strategic move that strengthens the Norwegian lender’s business model while opening up growth opportunities in the Nordic region.