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      Egypt: devaluation, financial support mitigate near-term risks, but challenges remain

      18/3/2024 Research EN

      Egypt: devaluation, financial support mitigate near-term risks, but challenges remain

      Egypt has improved its near-term finances by attracting foreign investment, devaluing the pound and securing more IMF support, but converting those gains into more sustainable long-term economic policy remains central for reversing the rating trajectory.

      Spain’s fiscal challenges persist amid political impasse; weak productivity remains economic concern

      13/3/2024 Research EN

      Spain’s fiscal challenges persist amid political impasse; weak productivity remains economic concern

      Spain's polarised national politics, evident in the lack of consensus for approving this year’s budget, could compromise the country's robust economic growth momentum. Enhancing productivity is crucial to offset rising welfare spending and pension costs.

      Italy: partial privatisations would reduce debt-to-GDP only at the margin; deeper reforms required

      6/3/2024 Research EN

      Italy: partial privatisations would reduce debt-to-GDP only at the margin; deeper reforms required

      Italy’s public debt of around 137% of GDP is unlikely to decline despite expected primary budget surpluses from 2025 and planned asset sales, underpinning the need for deploying EU funds successfully and containing state spending to reduce public debt.

      Continued debt reduction and structural reforms crucial for Greece’s sovereign-rating trajectory

      5/3/2024 Research EN

      Continued debt reduction and structural reforms crucial for Greece’s sovereign-rating trajectory

      Further upside for Greece’s credit rating hinges on robust nominal economic growth, deeper fiscal consolidation, more reform of the country’s banking system and structural economic reform compensating for years of public and private under-investment.

      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      19/2/2024 Research EN

      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      The EU’s revised fiscal rules are inadequate with respect to high green, digital and defence investment needs and would result in significant fiscal adjustments and cuts in public investment at a time when the economic growth outlook is already weak.

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      12/2/2024 Research EN

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      Germany’s energy-intensive industries, low investment, ageing population, weak growth and geopolitical vulnerabilities, rather than high government debt, represent long-term challenges to its AAA credit rating – hence the need to reform the debt brake.

      Hungary: credit ratings constrained by uncertainty over EU funds, elevated public debt

      6/2/2024 Research EN

      Hungary: credit ratings constrained by uncertainty over EU funds, elevated public debt

      Lingering uncertainty regarding the inflow of substantial EU funds and still-elevated public debt are the main constraints on Hungary's credit ratings otherwise supported by the economy’s strong investment-led growth.

      European Sub-Sovereign Outlook: risks balanced as crisis support eases, growth recovers

      5/2/2024 Research EN

      European Sub-Sovereign Outlook: risks balanced as crisis support eases, growth recovers

      Germany’s Länder have rushed to tap bond markets in early 2024, tapping strong investor demand for European sub-sovereign debt, reflecting the turning interest-rate cycle but also the broadly balanced risks facing issuers across the region this year.

      France: cabinet reshuffle reinvigorates government; rebuilding reform momentum remains difficult

      30/1/2024 Research EN

      France: cabinet reshuffle reinvigorates government; rebuilding reform momentum remains difficult

      French President Emmanuel Macron’s change of prime minister confirms the difficulty of securing parliamentary approval for further reforms. Any loss in momentum risks leaving some of France’s key credit challenges unaddressed.

      Scope publishes updated sovereign methodology following call for comments

      29/1/2024 Research EN

      Scope publishes updated sovereign methodology following call for comments

      Scope Ratings has updated its Sovereign Rating Methodology following the call for comments period, which concluded on 14 January 2024. The changes to the revised methodology could impact about seven sovereign ratings assigned by Scope.