Profitability is set to remain strong in 2026. Moderate loan growth, steady fee expansion and stable costs will support profits. But we are projecting an increase in provisions as default rates normalise, while economic and other risks remain high.

ABN AMRO’s announced acquisition of NIBC Bank carries low execution risk and is marginally supportive of the group’s strategic development and long-term credit profile.

EU banks trail US peers in profitability amid rising compliance costs. So policymakers are pushing to simplify regulation. This could bring positive outcomes but the potential for missteps should not be overlooked.

European banks have little choice but to accelerate investment to adapt to digital payments now that the European Central Bank (ECB) plans a pilot phase for the digital euro in 2027.

Germany’s largest banks are poised for robust operating performance in the quarters ahead, resilience which they will need to absorb the relatively high cost of risk amid lingering concerns about asset quality, says Scope Ratings.

Climate change can materially affect the creditworthiness of all issuer types and asset classes, so we have harmonised our general framework for capturing this risk, which can be applied to produce issuer-specific Key Climate Risk Indicators (KCRIs).

The uncertain political environment is likely to constrain market sentiment in Q4 2025, potentially dampening the earnings momentum French banks built in the first half, supported by strong revenues from retail banking, insurance and wealth management.

Aligning the tracks of Europe’s digital finance landscape will reinforce the euro’s global role, increase resilience against economic fragmentation and enhance European autonomy. Slow movers among European banks could face revenue and funding pressures.

Less dilution of equity capital certificates issued at a discount to book value would support savings banks’ credit profiles, but maintaining the cap on ECC holder representation on supervisory boards could have negative implications.

Corporate NPL ratios remain high, particularly in Germany, France, Austria and Belgium, while geopolitical risks and trade tensions have rendered the economic outlook uncertain. Our baseline of a moderate deterioration in asset quality remains intact.