Rating action

The new instruments rating assigned of BBB- to the EUR 500m senior unsecured bond due in 2019 reflects our senior unsecured debt rating of Deutsche Lufthansa AG. We have likewise assigned our debt instrument rating of BBB- to Lufthansa’s senior unsecured EUR 4.0bn debt issuance program.

Rating rationale

In line with Scope’s corporate ratings methodology, we have assigned a BB instrument rating to Lufthansa’s junior subordinated hybrid bond issued in 2015 (EUR 500m), two notches lower than the issuer rating, reflecting the optional deferability of coupon payments and deep subordination only ahead of common equity.

Rating-change drivers

Positive: Significant deleveraging beyond our base-case, successful reduction of unit costs and structural cost disadvantages, financial credit metrics sustainably below 1.5x (SaD/EBITDA).

Negative: Sudden and unexpected negative changes to discretionary travel (business and leisure), event risks including natural disasters, terrorist activities, and political unrest, intensifying competition by low-cost carriers, deterioration of SaD/EBITDA to levels of about 2.5x.

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. Scope performed its standard cash flow forecasting for the company.

Methodology
The methodology used for these ratings and rating outlooks Corporate Ratings Methodology are available on www.scoperatings.com.
Historical default rates of Scope Ratings can be viewed in the rating performance report on https://www.scoperatings.com/#governance-and-policies/regulatory-ESMA Please also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. A comprehensive clarification of Scope’s definition of default as well as definitions of rating notations can be found in Scope’s public credit rating methodologies on www.scoperatings.com.
The rating outlook indicates the most likely direction of the rating if the rating were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The rated entity and/or its agents participated in the rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the credit rating: public domain, the rated entity, third parties and Scope internal sources.
Scope considers the quality of information available to Scope on the rated entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the rating or outlook action, the rated entity was given the opportunity to review the rating and/or outlook and the principal grounds on which the credit rating and/or outlook is based. Following that review, the rating was not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
This credit rating and/or rating outlook is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH.
Lead analyst: Werner Stäblein, Executive Director
Person responsible for approval of the rating: Olaf Tölke, Managing Director
The ratings/outlooks were first released by Scope on 04.11. 2016

Potential conflicts
Please see www.scoperatings.com for a list of potential conflicts of interest related to the issuance of credit ratings.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
© 2018 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Analysis GmbH, Scope Investor Services GmbH and Scope Risk Solutions GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstrasse 5 D-10785 Berlin.

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