Scope Ratings has today changed to Negative from Stable the outlook for Deutsche Bank AG’s long-term ratings – BBB+ Issuer Rating and BBB senior unsecured debt ratings (a complete list of the ratings affected is provided at the end of this press release). The Stable Outlook for Deutsche Bank’s S-2 short-term rating remains unchanged.

Scope’s action on the long-term rating Outlook reflects its view that the road ahead will remain fraught with uncertainties for Deutsche Bank’s multi-year effort to recalibrate its business model away from a still-overwhelming reliance on global wholesale and investment banking activities – especially in secondary markets – for group revenue generation. Added to this are still-emerging headline risks related to Deutsche Bank in the various geographies in which it has been operating.

While changing the rating Outlook to Negative, Scope pointed out that Deutsche’s senior long-term ratings remain firmly in the investment-grade BBB range. The rating agency continues to see the banking group as a major player in Germany’s financial services sector, with continuing material relevance in global markets as well. The agency added that it will keep monitoring the extent to which, under new top management, Deutsche Bank will succeed in building a more sustainable earnings base from core commercial and retail banking together with financial services activities in Germany.

The Outlook was changed to Negative from Stable on the following ratings of Deutsche Bank AG:

BBB+ Issuer Rating
BBB senior unsecured debt ratings
BB+ Tier 2 securities ratings
B AT1 securities ratings

The Stable Outlook for Deutsche Bank’s S-2 short-term ratings remains unchanged.  

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. No cash flow analysis was performed.

Methodology
The methodology used for this rating(s) and/or rating outlook(s) Bank Rating Methodology is available on www.scoperatings.com.
Historical default rates of Scope Ratings can be viewed in the rating performance report on https://www.scoperatings.com/#governance-and-policies/regulatory-ESMA Please also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. A comprehensive clarification of Scope’s definition of default as well as definitions of rating notations can be found in Scope’s public credit rating methodologies on www.scoperatings.com.
The rating outlook indicates the most likely direction of the rating if the rating were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The rating was not requested by the rated entity or its agents. The rated entity and/or its agents did not participate in the rating process. Scope had no access to accounts, management and/or other relevant internal documents for the rated entity or related third party.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the credit rating: public domain, the rated entity and third parties.
Scope considers the quality of information available to Scope on the rated entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the rating or outlook action, the rated entity was given the opportunity to review the rating and/or outlook and the principal grounds on which the credit rating and/or outlook is based. Following that review, the rating was not amended before being issued.

Regulatory Disclosures
This credit rating and/or rating outlook is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH.
Lead analyst Chiara Romano, Senior Analyst
Person responsible for approval of the rating: Samuel Theodore, Group Managing Director
The long-term issuer rating/outlook were first released by Scope on 02.04.2014. The issuer rating/outlook were last updated on 17.11.2017.
The senior unsecured debt rating/outlook were first released by Scope on 02.04.2014. The senior unsecured debt rating/outlook were last updated on 17.11.2017.
The AT1 rating/outlook were first released by Scope on 09.10.2014. The AT1 rating/outlook were last updated on 17.11.2017.
The Tier 2 rating/outlook were first released by Scope on 19.12.2016. The Tier 2 rating/outlook were last updated on 17.11.2017.

Potential conflicts
Please see http://www.scoperatings.com for a list of potential conflicts of interest related to the issuance of credit ratings.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
© 2018 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Analysis GmbH, Scope Investor Services GmbH and Scope Risk Solutions GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstrasse 5 D-10785 Berlin.

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