Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today affirmed the AA long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings of Österreichischer Rundfunk Stiftung öffentlichen Rechts (ORF) in both local and foreign currency and revised the Outlooks to Negative from Stable. Scope has also affirmed the short-term issuer ratings in local and foreign currency at S-1+ with Stable Outlooks.

The latest information on the rating, including rating reports and related methodologies, is available here.

Summary and Outlook

The revision of the Outlook on ORF’s ratings to Negative from Stable is driven by the revision of the Outlook to Negative on Austria’s AAA sovereign ratings on 7 July 2023¹. This revision underscores the close relationship between ORF's creditworthiness and the creditworthiness of the Austrian government. Scope classifies ORF as a government-related entity (GRE) because of its substantial strategic, operational and financial ties with the federal government of Austria.

ORF's AA rating reflects the following supportive factors: i) the public-service mandate to provide broadcasting in Austria according to the ORF Act (ORF-G) and the strategic role to its public sponsor; ii) stable revenues through programme fees (ORF-levy from 2024); iii) market leader position in Austria; and iv) conservative financial management with high equity and moderate levels of indebtedness.

However, the rating also takes into account several challenges: i) an evolving behaviour among users, especially regarding online and streaming activities; ii) declining advertising revenues; and iii) cost increases and associated cost saving efforts until 2026, as demanded by the federal government.

The Austrian lower chamber of parliament passed a comprehensive amendment to the ORF-G on 5 July 2023. Even though the upper chamber of parliament did not approve the amendment on 12 July 2023, Scope expects that the law will take effect from 2024. This amendment reorganises ORF’s financing from 2024 by replacing previously collected programming fees with an obligatory ORF-levy. The amendment also imposes new requirements on ORF, including on transparency and on advertising activities in the radio and online segments, and widens ORF’s room for manoeuvre in the online segment (“Digitalnovelle”). The amendment to the ORF-G had been demanded by the Austrian Constitutional Court in June 2022 in order to close the so-called streaming gap, i.e. the consumption of ORF programmes online without paying programme fees.

Overall, Scope assesses the impact of the amendments to the ORF-G on ORF's AA-rating as broadly neutral. The new financing model continues to ensure that a large share of ORF’s revenues remain stable and anchored by federal law, which forms the basis for fulfilling its public-sector mandate. ORF’s total revenue should be positively impacted by the change, albeit moderately, despite a reduction of the ORF-levy to EUR 15.30 per household, from EUR 18.59 for the programme fee (TV and radio combined), due to the expected increase in the catchment area. To enable a reduced ORF-levy, ORF is undertaking cost savings totalling EUR 315m until 2026, which Scope considers ambitious but achievable. The amount of EUR 15.30 is comparable to the level in the UK for the BBC (GBP 159 a year, about EUR 15.25 a month) and are below EUR 18.36 a month in Germany.

The amended ORF-G also allows ORF to enhance its presence in the online segment, where previous provisions in the ORF-G were very restrictive. This should allow ORF to further pursue its ongoing strategy to complement traditional TV and radio channels more comprehensively with online-only and online-first programmes and more attractive online platforms, channels and apps. The increase in TV, radio and online production demanded by the federal government and simultaneous envisioned cost savings should be achievable with expected efficiency gains.

The Negative Outlook reflects Scope’s assessment that the risks ORF faces are tilted to the downside over the next 12 to 18 months.

The ratings could be downgraded if: i) the rating of the Republic of Austria were downgraded; and/or ii) there were unfavourable legal changes to ORF’s financing model; and/or iii) Scope observed a significant and sustained deterioration in the business and/or financial risk profile.

The ratings/Outlooks could be upgraded if: i) the Outlook on the Austrian sovereign rating were upgraded; ii) there were legislative changes leading to significantly stronger financial and/or operational linkages with the federal government; and/or iii) Scope observed significant and sustainable improvements in the business and/or financial risk profile.

Rating rationale

The Outlook revision on ORF’s ratings to Negative reflects the recent revision of the Outlook to Negative on Austria’s AAA-sovereign ratings. This is driven by ORF’s high level of integration with the Republic of Austria (AAA/Negative), given close strategic, operational and financial ties, and Scope’s application of the top-down rating approach under its rating methodology for Government-related Entities. The starting point and rating anchor of this approach is the AAA rating of the federal government.

The activities of ORF as a public service broadcaster in Austria are of strong public interest. The purpose and activities of ORF are regulated by federal law in the ORF-G and include the provision of broadcasting with TV and radio in Austria. The public-service nature of this mandate and legislative competence at the federal level have been anchored in the Austrian Federal Constitutional Law since 1974. To fulfil its public-service mandate, ORF operates four nationwide TV programmes and 12 radio programmes. The public-service mandate also includes the operation of a teletext service and online services.

Scope expects that ORF's activities will expand significantly into the online segment under the provisions of the amended ORF-G. However, the traditional TV and radio offering will remain a focus, with the exception of the sports channel, which can be distributed online from 2027.

Integration with the federal government is also strengthened by the federal government’s high influence over the composition of ORF’s highest governing body, the Foundation Council (“Stiftungsrat”). It acts as the governing and supervisory body and is similar to the supervisory board of a public limited company. Among other things, it sets the overall strategy, determines the level of programme fees and appoints the Director General, as well as directors and regional directors. Of the 35 members, 15 are appointed directly by the federal government. In addition, the federal government appoints the members of KommAustria, the supervisory authority over ORF. KommAustria's competences include reviewing the admissibility of new offerings and programme fee increases (also applicable to ORF-levies from 2024), as well as financial control over ORF.

A second driver for ORF’s AA-ratings is the financing model via programme fees. These make up over 60% of annual revenues and ensure that ORF is sufficiently financially equipped to fulfil its public-service mandate. The level of the programme fee is set by the “Stiftungsrat” at least every five years and is based on the projected net costs of fulfilling the public-service mandate over a five-year financing period. The programme fee for television reception facilities including radio (combi) was last increased in February 2022 by 8%, or on average EUR 1.38, and amounts to EUR 18.59 per month on average until the end of 2023.

Scope assesses the change in financing via ORF-levies from 2024 as largely neutral for ORF, despite a lowered amount of EUR 15.30, from EUR 18.59. This reduction is broadly revenue-neutral due to an enlarged group of households and businesses that have to pay the levy. In addition, expected cost savings until 2026 to which ORF has committed itself to, should also ensure financial sustainability. The financing model via ORF-levies will help stabilise revenues in the long term, as this eliminates previous risks that arose due to the deregistration of users and the associated loss of revenues. Another important aspect of the new ORF-levy is that it will not include value added tax (VAT), in contrast to the current programme fee. This means that ORF can no longer offset payable VAT with VAT collected on programme fees from 2024. However, the amended ORF-G contains provisions that ensure that ORF is compensated for this financial loss, subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions.

Another rating driver supporting the AA rating is ORF’s high strategic relevance.

ORF and its programmes enjoy a high level of coverage and trust in Austria. Approximately 95% of Austrians (16+) use ORF programmes at least rarely, and surveys confirm that Austrians trust ORF the most among all Austrian media. In the crisis years since 2020, ORF has been able to expand its market share, and broadcasts on the ongoing crises (Corona pandemic, war in Ukraine, inflation and energy shocks) were highly demanded. ORF also fulfils the purpose of representing regional interests for the federal states through regional studios that operate their own radio channels and contribute to nationwide programmes.

ORF fulfils a unique role in the TV and radio market in Austria. It does not operate on a profit-maximising basis and competes with private and other German-language public broadcasters such as ARD/ZDF. Specifications of § 4 ORF-G ensure that ORF’s programmes distinguish themselves from purely commercial ones, e.g. by providing cultural content and comprehensive informational services for the general public on all important political, social, economic, cultural and sporting issues.

Market leadership, high levels of trust, national representation for federal states, and established production and distribution structures make substitutability of ORF very difficult, and the continued existence and sufficient financial means of ORF are thus of high public interest. Scope deems the willingness to provide direct financial assistance in exceptional circumstances as ‘medium’, and, similarly, assesses a hypothetical default as having negative reputational consequences for the federal government which in turn increases the likelihood of support if ever needed, supporting the AA-rating.

Finally, the AA-ratings take into account Scope’s assessment of the ORF’s business and financial risk profiles, which do not further change the rating derived under the top-down approach.

ORF's business profile benefits from its dominant position as market leader in TV and radio broadcasting, a high reputation and adequate profitability and earnings, which are secured by the programme fees financing model (ORF-levy from 2024). Moderate risks exist due to declining advertisement revenues. In addition, dynamically changing usage of media, especially among younger viewers, leads to a decreasing relevance of linear TV and radio channels. Finally, cost increases and the associated cost saving strategy of ORF are challenges.

Scope considers the risks to ORF's financial profile as low. ORF has a high equity ratio of around 20% and its conservative financial management results in moderate debt levels with long maturities, fixed-rate coupons and no foreign-currency risks. Furthermore, ORF has comfortable liquidity buffers and benefits from predictable operating cash flow through income from programme fees. At the same time, Scope sees moderate risks in the investment portfolio, which is subject to valuation changes.

Qualitative Scorecards QS1, QS2

Scope applies a ‘Top-Down’ approach (QS1) in assessing the creditworthiness of ORF, which takes the public sponsor’s rating (Republic of Austria: AAA/Negative) as the starting point and then adjusts it downwards, based on the assessment of i) Control and regular support; and ii) Likelihood of exceptional support (QS2). The analysis also includes a supplementary analysis of the entity’s business and financial risk profiles.

The adoption of the top-down approach (QS1) reflects a strong level of integration between ORF and its public sponsor resulting from: i) a ‘High’ integration assessment for Legal status, ii) a ‘Medium’ integration assessment regarding ORF’s Purpose & activities; and iii) a ‘High’ integration assessment on Financial interdependencies. Given the independent special ownership structure, Scope does not assess Shareholder structure in line with its methodology.

Scope assesses Control and regular support for ORF as ‘Medium’ (QS2) as a result of: i) ‘Medium’ government control over Strategic and operational decision making; ii) ‘High’ control over its Key personnel, governing & oversight bodies; and iii) ‘Medium’ Ordinary financial support.

Scope assesses the Likelihood of exceptional support at ‘Medium’ (QS2), reflecting: i) a ‘Medium’ assessment for Strategic importance for the public sponsor; ii) ‘Medium’ Substitution difficulty; and iii) ‘Medium’ assessment on the political and reputational Default implications in the event of a hypothetical default.

The assessments under QS1 and QS2 result in an indicative rating of AA for ORF. A supplementary analysis of standalone business and financial risks does not lead to any adjustment of the indicative AA rating.

Factoring of Environment, Social and Governance (ESG)

Scope considers the following ESG factors in the rating analysis.

First, Scope's AAA rating for the Republic of Austria, ORF’s public sponsor, includes an appraisal of ESG factors, which are weighted at 25% overall per Scope's ‘Sovereign Ratings’ methodology.

Governance factors are relevant to ORF's rating and are included in the assessment of integration with the Federal Government of Austria and in the assessment of ORF’s stand-alone profile. These factors are supported by the high quality of management and governance structures, and sound and conservative liquidity and financial management.

Social factors are included in the assessment of ORF's strategic relevance. Since ORF, as a public service broadcaster in Austria, emphasises content on the promotion of democracy, European identity, information, culture and sport, equal rights and equality, in comparison to purely commercial programmes by competitors, Scope assesses social aspects as relevant and positive for ORF’s ratings.

In the rating process, Scope also analyses ORF's environmental management, which did not play a direct role in this rating action, however. In its broadcasting programme, a special programme called ‘Mother Earth’ offers content on the topic of sustainability and thus raises awareness among users. ORF's own sustainability programme includes sustainability goals, such as climate neutrality by 2040 and a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% compared to 2005-levels. ORF site at Küniglberg was renovated or newly built according to high energy efficiency standards. In its annual sustainability reports, ORF comprehensively reports on sustainability indicators. Finally, ORF’s recently updated asset management of provisions held for pension liabilities includes a comprehensive ESG strategy to monitor and minimise the CO2 emissions of the invested portfolio.

Rating committee
The main points discussed during the rating committee were: i) the reform to the ORF Act; ii) integration with the public sponsor, iii) control and regular support assessments, iv) likelihood of exceptional support, and v) factors under the supplementary analysis and business and financial risk profiles.

Rating driver references
1. Scope revises Austria's Outlook to Negative from Stable, affirms ratings at AAA
 
Methodology
The methodology used for these Credit Ratings and Outlooks, (Government Related Entities Rating Methodology, 13 July 2023), is available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on https://www.scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at https://www.scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and Outlooks are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Julian Zimmermann, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Alvise Lennkh-Yunus, Executive Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 9 September 2022.

Potential conflicts
See www.scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest related to the issuance of Credit Ratings.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
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