Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope publicly announces the completion of each monitoring review on its website.

Scope completed a monitoring review for the Republic of Poland (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: A/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-1/Stable) on 14 January 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on www.scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

The Republic of Poland's A credit ratings are supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals, a diversified economy, robust economic growth prospects, and moderate public debt. Well-developed domestic capital markets and a profitable, liquid, and well-capitalized banking system further anchor Poland’s ratings.

In 2024, the Polish government resolved its rule-of-law dispute with the EU, unlocking key funds, which support Poland’s growth outlook. Scope forecasts GDP growth to rise from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, driven by robust private consumption, a strong labour market, and steady absorption of EU funds. In 2024, consumption was the primary growth driver, supported by solid real wage growth. For 2025, Scope expects a significant boost from increased investment, fuelled by EU fund spending, while external demand recovery may remain sluggish, reflecting ongoing weakness in the German economy.

Poland’s ratings are challenged by elevated budget deficits including spending pressures and an increasing debt ratio. Scope forecasts Poland’s general government deficit to decline only gradually from an estimated 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to around 3.0% by 2029, although the consolidation may be lower given election-driven policies and rising military spending. Consequently, Scope expects government debt to increase from an estimated 54.8% of GDP in 2024 to 63.4% by 2029.

Additionally, Scope expects political polarisation to persist, delaying important reforms like judicial changes until after the May 2025 presidential elections. Finally, geopolitical risks stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine, along with persistent social and environmental issues, weigh on Poland’s growth prospects.

The Stable Outlook reflects the agency’s view that risks to the ratings remain balanced.

The ratings and/or Outlooks could be upgraded if, individually or collectively: i) fiscal performance improves, supporting a structurally declining trajectory of the government debt ratio; ii) the economy’s external balance sheet was to further strengthen materially; and/or iii) social and environmental risks are significantly redressed, enhancing long-run sustainable growth.

Conversely, the ratings and/or Outlooks could be downgraded if, individually or collectively: i) weaker budgetary outcomes result in a substantial rise in the public debt trajectory; ii) structurally weaker economic growth, such as that caused by an external shock, significantly undermine Poland’s external-sector risk profile; and/or iii) political polarisation and/or governance challenges curb the government’s ability to implement reforms and/or absorb EU funds.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 29 January 2024) is available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst Jakob Suwalski, Senior Director.

© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin.