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Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the case of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macroeconomic or financial market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit ratings’ performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodologies, including key rating assumptions and model. Scope publicly announces the completion of each monitoring review on its website.

Scope has completed the monitoring review of the rating for the EUR 556.4m senior notes, issued by Gode Wind 1 Investor Holding GmbH, maturing in 2026.

The credit rating remains as follows:

Senior notes: EUR 556.4m maturing in 2026: BBB+

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated rating history can be found on www.scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

The rating reflects a total expected loss (EL) of 0.03% over the life of the loan to maturity (equivalent to a 0.74-year constant-exposure expected risk horizon). We have calculated an expected impairment likelihood of 0.19% for the project (rated instrument), which corresponds with a probability of default strength of bbb- in Scope’s idealised PD curve. The total (average) expected recovery rate on the project’s credit impairment events is 84.05%.

Key drivers are the low risks during operation, particularly given the experienced sponsors and operator, good technical track record, and strong operational visibility until debt maturity in June 2026. TRIG's agreed partial sale to Equitix does not change our sponsor risk assessment. Projected coverage ratios are at the lower end of Scope’s expectations, but this is mitigated by the robust revenue generation, with very limited merchant power price exposure until the notes’ maturity, the low regulatory risk, and the substantial size of the debt service reserve amount relative to the outstanding debt. The project features a fully amortising debt profile followed by a long remaining useful technical asset life.

The project’s actual electricity generation, including compensated curtailment volumes in 2024, was 4% above the Scope’s rating case primarily thanks to strong wind conditions in the first half of the year. Uncompensated revenue events (grid outages up to certain thresholds and negative price events) were broadly in line with our rating case (3.6% actual vs. 3.5%). Turbine availability was slightly below our rating case assumption, but performance remains adequate. Overall revenues were slightly above the Scope rating case expectations. The actual historic DSCR for 2024 was 1.22x, reflecting satisfactory performance, broadly in line with our rating case projection of 1.21x. The initial accelerated feed-in tariff of 194 EUR/MWh stepped down to the lower extended tariff of 154 EUR/MWh in May/June 2024.

Scope has updated the rating case forecast to reflect revised inflation projections and a slightly slower decline path in the electricity price forecast (unchanged long-term price assumptions from 2030). For the 12-month backward-looking DSCR, the minimum is 1.08x and the average is 1.19x. The minimum of 1.08x occurs in the period ending June 2025 and is mainly driven by higher than previously expected taxes in the second half of 2024. The low minimum DSCR is a one-off and is offset by an adequate note life coverage ratio (NLCR) of 1.28x and the project life coverage ratio (PLCR) of 1.53x in our rating case. However, taking into account the required debt service reserve amount (provided by an acceptable L/C with a minimum rating requirement of BBB+), the adjusted current NLCR and PLCR are 1.74x and 1.98x, respectively, which are considered robust.

The methodologies applicable for the reviewed rating (General Project Finance Rating Methodology, 15 November 2024; Counterparty Risk Methodology, 10 July 2024) are available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst Marton Zempleni, Senior Representative

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