Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for the State of the Netherlands (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: AAA/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-1+/Stable) on 2 April 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

The Netherlands’ AAA/Stable ratings are supported by a wealthy, diversified and competitive economy alongside a resilient financial system. In addition, the Netherlands benefits from the economy’s strong external position, moderate level of general government debt, and from European Union and euro area memberships. Following a modest 0.1% growth in 2023, economic output improved in 2024, with GDP increasing by 0.9%. Growth was driven by a gradual recovery in exports, higher government consumption, and stronger private demand supported by low inflation and persistently strong nominal wage growth. Scope expects real GDP growth to remain solid at 1.7% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, supported by strengthening purchasing power and household consumption, as well as rising public investments.

Increasing global tariffs and trade tensions present a significant challenge, likely to slow economic growth in the Netherlands due to its trade-driven economy and deep integration into international supply chains.

The fiscal deficit in 2024 was lower than expected at 1.1% of GDP, as stronger economic growth led to higher tax revenues, while government investment spending remained lower than anticipated. Scope expects the fiscal deficit to widen to 1.8% of GDP this year and 2.5% of GDP in 2026 as the government faces higher public spending on interest, healthcare, social security services and investment needs particularly related to defence, climate change and infrastructure. As a result, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is seen increasing gradually from 43.3% in 2024 to around 47% by 2029.

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s assessment that risks to the ratings are balanced.

The ratings/Outlooks could be downgraded if, individually or collectively: i) the fiscal outlook were to deteriorate significantly, including an increasing public debt trajectory over the long term; and/or ii) a global or regional shock causes a significant drop in output and/or accentuated risk to the Netherlands’ financial stability.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 27 January 2025) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Alessandra Poli, Analyst

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