The latest information on the rating, including rating reports and related methodologies, is available on this LINK.

Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today affirmed its B+/Stable issuer rating on MARSO Kft. Scope has also affirmed its BB- rating on the company’s senior unsecured (guaranteed) debt instrument (ISIN HU0000359393).

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

Business risk profile: B+ (unchanged). MARSO’s profitability has historically supported its business risk profile. However, external and structural pressure on margins has resulted in a sustained decline in EBITDA performance. In 2024, economic headwinds, oversupply from manufacturers’ excess inventories, and the growing presence of low-cost Asian tyre products negatively impacted both revenue and profitability. Additionally, the inclusion of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) fees in pricing further weighed on margins. The Scope-adjusted EBITDA margin* declined to 4.8% in 2024 from 5.4% in 2023. It is forecast to fall slightly further in 2025, with a gradual recovery toward 5% expected by 2027 supported by easing salary cost pressures, although margins are expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

MARSO’s business risk profile remains underpinned by its leading market position, strong supplier relationships with a significant share of exclusivity-based contracts, and moderate profitability. It is constrained by the company’s small scale, intense competition, and limited geographic and product diversification.

Financial risk profile: BB- (unchanged). The continued decline in EBITDA, which began in 2023 and persisted into 2024, is expected to adversely affect MARSO’s credit metrics in 2025 and 2026. From FY 2024 onward, Scope has applied a 100% haircut to the company’s cash balance when calculating adjusted debt. This reflects the non-permanent nature of cash holdings due to high intra-year absorption linked to MARSO’s seasonal inventory build-up in Q3, financed through cash reserves and short-term credit facilities. These adjustments, combined with depressed EBITDA, resulted in a debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.9x in 2024. However, deleveraging is expected to be supported by stable EBITDA and the absence of major capital expenditures prompting new debt additions. The ratio is therefore projected to improve to around 4.0x by 2026.

MARSO’s financial risk profile continues to benefit from relatively strong EBITDA interest coverage (9.3x in 2024), underpinned by a predominantly fixed-rate debt structure. Funds from operations/debt (18% in 2024) and cash flow coverage (3% in 2024) are expected to remain stable assuming no significant shifts in working capital.

Liquidity: adequate (unchanged). MARSO’s liquidity assessment is supported by its solid cash position (HUF 4bn projected at end-2025) and access to committed, undrawn credit facilities (HUF 425m projected at end-2025). Coupled with positive free operating cash flow generation, Scope estimates this will be sufficient to cover 2026 debt maturities totalling HUF 310m. The company has already refinanced its significant 2025 maturities, further reinforcing its adequate liquidity position. Scope notes, however, that interim cash levels are subject to volatility due to the highly seasonal nature of the business, particularly around inventory build-up in Q3. Despite this, liquidity remains adequate, as inventories are considered a potential secondary source of liquidity.

Scope highlights the fact that MARSO’s senior unsecured (guaranteed) debt instrument (ISIN HU0000359393) has a covenant requiring the accelerated repayment of the outstanding nominal debt amount (HUF 3.6bn) if the debt rating of the bond stays below B+ for more than two years (grace period) or drops below B- (accelerated repayment within 10 business days after public announcement). Such a development could adversely affect the company’s liquidity profile. The rating headroom to entering the grace period is one notch.  Scope therefore sees no immediate risk of the rating-related covenant being triggered. 

Supplementary rating drivers: credit-neutral (unchanged). The ratings are unaffected by supplementary rating drivers.

Outlook and rating sensitivities

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s expectation of an EBITDA margin above 4% and a relatively stable debt profile over the next 18 months despite ongoing economic headwinds, which are likely to weigh on MARSO’s operating profitability and credit metrics in 2025 and beyond. This is supported by the debt/EBITDA ratio remaining within the 4–6x range. The Outlook also incorporates continued intra-year volatility in working capital and net debt, driven by the seasonal nature of the issuer’s business. The Outlook further takes into account Scope's expectation that MARSO will continue to have access to external financing to cover intra-year working capital swings.

The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

1. Debt/EBITDA improving to below 4.0x on a sustained basis.

The downside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

1. Debt/EBITDA moving close to or above 6.0x.

Debt rating

In December 2019, MARSO issued a HUF 3.6bn senior unsecured (guaranteed) debt instrument (ISIN HU0000359393) through the Hungarian central bank’s Bond Funding for Growth Scheme. The bond is guaranteed by Marso Holding Kft., which belongs to the same corporate group as MARSO. The bond proceeds were used for warehouse capex. The bond has a tenor of 10 years and a fixed coupon of 2.3%. Bond repayment is in three tranches starting from 2027, with 33.3% of the face value payable yearly. Bond covenants in addition to the rating deterioration covenant include non-payment, insolvency proceedings, cross-default, pari passu, negative pledge, change of control and dividend payment covenants.

Scope’s recovery analysis indicates an ‘above-average’ recovery in a hypothetical default scenario in 2026. This is based on the issuer’s liquidation value, assumed outstanding senior secured debt of HUF 2.0bn and a guarantee of HUF 1.2bn to Marso Holding Kft with available credit lines fully drawn. The recovery analysis allows for a one-notch uplift from the underlying issuer rating, leading to the debt rating of BB-.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

Overall, ESG factors have no impact on this credit rating action.

All rating actions and rated entities

MARSO Kft.

Issuer rating: B+/Stable, affirmation

Senior unsecured (guaranteed) debt instrument (ISIN HU0000359393) rating: BB-, affirmation

*All credit metrics refer to Scope-adjusted figures.

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. Scope Ratings performed its standard cash flow forecasting for the company.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlook, (General Corporate Rating Methodology, 14 February 2025; Retail and Wholesale Rating Methodology, 25 June 2025), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Credit Ratings were not requested by the Rated Entity or its Related Third Parties. The Credit Rating process was conducted:
With the Rated Entity or Related Third Party participation        YES
With access to internal documents                                             YES
With access to management                                                     YES
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings' internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Dániel Szebényi, Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Philipp Wass, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 7 October 2019. The Credit Ratings/Outlook were last updated on 19 September 2024.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use/exclusion of liability
© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin. Public Ratings are generally accessible to the public. Subscription Ratings and Private Ratings are confidential and may not be shared with any unauthorised third party.