Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Poland (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: A/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-1/Stable) on 11 November 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

Poland’s A ratings are underpinned by: i) strong macro-economic fundamentals, with robust growth and a solid external position; ii) a credible, rules-based fiscal framework, including a constitutional debt ceiling and automatic correction mechanisms, that are expected to help contain debt over the forecast horizon; iii) a comparatively moderate, albeit rising, public debt burden and deep domestic capital markets; iv) EU membership and access to substantial concessional funding, notably through the NextGenerationEU and SAFE programmes, which reinforce medium-term growth, fiscal resilience, and external stability.

The Polish economy has maintained solid growth and stability through recent shocks. Scope projects GDP growth at 3.5% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, driven by real income gains, firm household demand, and a rebound in investment supported by accelerated EU fund absorption. Poland has increasingly become a regional hub for shared services, IT, and business process outsourcing, boosting value-added exports and diversifying the economy beyond traditional manufacturing. The country’s medium-term growth potential remains high by EU standards at around 3%, sustained by steady productivity gains, rising high-value business service exports, and migration inflows that partly offset demographic pressures. Poland’s solid external position is supported by an improving net investment balance, ample FX reserves, and moderate external debt.

Continued EU funding from NextGenerationEU and the SAFE programme strengthens growth, fiscal resilience, and external stability. Poland has unlocked previously withheld EU funds and is set to receive EUR 59.8bn under the NGEU framework by 2026. Disbursements are expected to peak in 2026, with around EUR 31bn remaining to be absorbed ahead of the programme’s completion deadline. Scope’s baseline assumes full absorption of these funds, despite slower reform progress ahead of the 2027 elections. In addition, given the geopolitical environment and Poland’s substantial increase in defence spending, the country is expected to receive initial disbursements under the SAFE programme from its total allocation of EUR 44bn (around 5% of GDP) in the coming years, further strengthening its macroeconomic and external resilience.

Still, Poland’s fiscal position has deteriorated in recent years due to higher defence and social spending, rising interest costs, and limited fiscal flexibility. However, under current policies and assuming no new revenue or expenditure measures beyond those outlined in the 2026 budget and medium-term fiscal strategy, the deficit is expected to follow a gradual downward trajectory from 2025 onward. The peak of fiscal weakening is likely to occur in 2025, after which moderating inflation (from around 11% in 2023 to below 3% in 2025) will ease automatic wage and pension indexation pressures, contributing to slower expenditure growth. Defence expenditure remains elevated at around 3.4% of GDP (COFOG) and is projected to stabilise, indicating that the peak rearmament impulse is receding and reducing upward pressure on medium-term expenditure dynamics, while the phasing-out of temporary energy and social support measures will further ease fiscal pressures. Recent NBP rate cuts will help curb debt-servicing costs from 2026 onward.

Steady economic expansion, rising wages, solid corporate profitability and improved tax compliance are expected to sustain revenue growth. Nominal GDP growth remains strong, supporting VAT and personal income tax receipts. The continued rise in employment and wages will further strengthen the personal income tax base, while higher profitability and tax-base broadening in the corporate and banking sectors, including through CIT and windfall levies, should bolster overall revenue performance. In parallel, greater EU co-financing under the NGEU and SAFE programmes will shift a larger share of public investment off the domestic budget, easing pressure on national fiscal resources.

These adjustment factors are supported by a credible, rules-based fiscal framework, a still-moderate debt burden, favourable refinancing conditions and deep domestic capital markets. Scope projects public debt to increase from around 60% of GDP in 2025 to around 75% by 2030 on ESA terms, still below the EU average (82% in 2025), and just under the 60% constitutional ceiling under the national definition by the end of the decade. Breaching this ceiling would legally require a balanced budget and halt new borrowing, providing a powerful incentive for early corrective action. As the debt ratio approaches this limit toward the end of the decade, the government, regardless of political composition after the 2027 elections, is expected to tighten fiscal policy to prevent breaching the constitutional threshold. Scope’s baseline assumes that this framework will continue to anchor Poland’s medium-term fiscal policy stance despite ongoing governance challenges. Any developments undermining compliance with the constitutional framework would be viewed as credit negative.

Rating challenges include: i) elevated and persistent fiscal deficits, reflecting strong structural spending pressures and a rigid expenditure composition; ii) a rising public debt trajectory; iii) political polarisation and institutional frictions, which delay fiscal adjustment measures; and iv) exposure to geopolitical risks, which drive higher defence commitments.

The Stable Outlook represents Scope’s view that risks to the ratings over the next 12 to 18 months are balanced.

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):

1. Weaker budgetary outcomes, resulting in a materially higher debt trajectory and interest-burden;
    
2. Heightened political or institutional frictions, which delay reform implementation or restrict effective use of EU and SAFE funds;
    
3. A sustained weakening in economic growth or external competitiveness; and/or
    
4. A weakening of the rules-based fiscal framework, including risks to the debt limit.

Upside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):

1. Durable improvement in fiscal performance, supporting a structurally declining trajectory for the government debt ratio;
    
2. Sustained strengthening of the external balance sheet; and/or
    
3. Tangible progress in addressing long-term social and environmental challenges.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 27 January 2025) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Jakob Suwalski, Executive Director

© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin. Public Ratings are generally accessible to the public. Subscription Ratings and Private Ratings are confidential and may not be shared with any unauthorised third party.