Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has affirmed UniCredit’s issuer rating of A and preferred senior unsecured debt rating of A, both with a Stable Outlook.

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

Business model assessment: Resilient (High). The issuer rating is anchored by the Resilient (High) business model assessment. UniCredit is a large universal banking group with total assets of EUR 881bn as of September 2025. It is one of the few pan-European banks, with a geographic presence that spans Italy, Germany, Austria, and several Central and Eastern European countries. The group enjoys a strong market position in most of its markets: it is the second largest player in Italy, the third largest commercial bank in Germany and Austria’s leading corporate bank.

Compared to some of its international peers, UniCredit lacks in-house asset management product factory, although it distributes third party products. However, management is keen on internalising a progressively higher portion of the value chain, as done for bancassurance with its recent acquisition of the life insurance Italian product factories previously conducted in the form of joint ventures with CNP Assurances and Allianz.

UniCredit’s management team has made it clear that it is open to inorganic growth opportunities that create value for shareholders. Over the past two years, the group has: (i) built up a stake of around 29% in Commerzbank; (ii) entered the Greek market through an investment in and partnership with Alpha Bank; (ii) purchased the Polish tech company Vodeno, enabling the group to return to Poland and; (iv) strengthened its presence in Romania. Scope notes that while all these transactions have not changed the group’s business and credit profile, larger M&A deals could have rating implications, depending on the target and terms.

Operating environment assessment: Supportive (Low). The assessment reflects Scope’s blended view of the different markets where the group operates.

Italy (Supportive Low) is the group’s main market, representing 45% of the group’s revenues in 2024. As the EU’s third largest economy and second largest manufacturer, Italy has had a significant average trade surplus over the past decade. The GDP per capita is EUR 38k, in line with the EU average. Relatively weak public finances, including high government debt of around 137% of GDP in 2024, and elevated annual funding needs, may constrain the government’s ability to deploy countercyclical measures in downturns in the context of the rigid European fiscal framework. At the same time, structural challenges and an ageing and declining working population will continue to weigh on economic growth. In a higher interest rate environment, the banking sector has been performing strongly, with high margins and low cost of risk driving a rebound in profitability since 2022. Following a decade of balance sheet cleanup, asset quality is no longer a credit concern.

Germany (Supportive High) accounts for approximately one-fifth of revenues. It is Europe’s largest economy, with a high level of GDP per capita. The country’s export-oriented manufacturing sector has been facing multiple headwinds, leading to stagnant growth in recent years. From 2026, real GDP growth is expected to recover, supported by public investments. Despite fiscal loosening, Germany’s fiscal space remains intact, with overall manageable fiscal deficits and a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio. The German banking sector is fragmented, with large market shares of cooperative and saving banking groups, and aggregate profitability is low. The national legislative framework is predictable and stable.

Austria (Supportive High) accounts for 10% of the group’s revenues. Austria has a wealthy, diversified and internationally competitive economy. GDP per capita in Austria is much higher than the EU average. The government has a favourable public debt profile and private sector debt is low. However, real GDP growth has largely stagnated between 2023-25, due to subdued external demand, investment activity and private demand. Like in Germany, the Austrian banking system is highly fragmented and overbanked. Nevertheless, the sector remains solid, underpinned by robust capital and liquidity buffers. Strong profits contribute to the sector's increased resistance to heightened geopolitical and credit risks, particularly in the commercial property sector. Compared to historical figures, however, an average NPL ratio is still moderate.

Italy, Germany and Austria are part of the European Banking Union, which has brought about a significant strengthening and harmonisation in bank regulation and supervision under the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism, which Scope considers to be supportive of financial stability. The European Central Bank also shares with national central banks the role of lender of last resort, which limits illiquidity risks to the banks.

Scope arrives at an initial mapping of a- based on a combined assessment of the issuer’s operating environment and business model.

Long-term sustainability assessment (ESG factor): Neutral. The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the issuer is embracing changes to ensure the long-term sustainability of its business model. Progress made may be tangible but does not warrant further credit differentiation.

Digitalisation is at the core of the group’s strategy. Having invested almost EUR 3bn in IT under the previous plan, UniCredit has allocated an additional EUR 2.5bn to establish a unified, scalable technology infrastructure across its European markets. In May 2025, the group announced that it had signed a 10-year agreement with Google Cloud. This collaboration involves the gradual migration of the group’s systems to Google Cloud and the use of various AI tools.

The group’s strategic awareness of environmental issues has increased, as evidenced by the greater scope and more stringent targets included in its business plan. In 2024, the group set new 2030 net zero interim targets for the automotive, oil&gas, steel, shipping, and commercial real estate sectors. In addition, the group remains committed to eliminating exposure to the coal sector by 2028 (i.e. refrain from providing banking services to any coal-related projects).

UniCredit is one of the few remaining EU banks that has not left sanctions-hit Russia, although it has no longer cross-border exposures and has reduced net local loans since March 2022. Scope reiterates that selling the Russian subsidiary would reduce, if not eliminate, any latent risk.

The long-term sustainability assessment leads to an adjusted rating anchor of a-.

Earnings capacity and risk exposures assessment: Neutral. The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the group’s earnings capacity may be variable over economic cycles but is sufficient to cover expected losses. Asset quality is broadly in line with peers. Risks are unlikely to generate losses capable of undermining the issuer’s viability.

Since 2021, the widening of the net interest margin has led to a rapid increase in the group’s profitability. Additionally, credit losses have continued to decline, reflecting strong loan performance and careful origination. Although interest margins have now peaked, the group’s results will now be supported by buoyant fee income and the contributions from recent investments, including from Vodeno/Aion, life insurance in Italy, and the pro-rata earnings of Commerzbank and Alpha Bank. Management commitment to cost discipline and to shift lending towards higher risk-adjusted returns is also driving performance.

Between 2025 and 2027, Scope expects UniCredit’s return on risk-weighted assets to remain above 3% (3.5% in 2024), even assuming modest loan growth (below 1.5%) and a pick-up in cost of risk towards 30bp of loans by 2027. Geopolitics, uncertainty in international trade, and the potential for heightened volatility in the financial markets are the main downside risk to Scope’s base-case projections.

UniCredit’s credit quality remains solid, with a gross non-performing exposure ratio now stable at 2.6%. Besides a few large single-name defaults in the past two years, loan performance has been strong. The group maintains cushion of EUR 1.7bn of unused provisions (management overlays booked since the Covid pandemic) to cover potential unexpected losses.

The group has a concentrated exposure to Italian sovereign debt, which may limit the upside to its rating. The portfolio represents around 100% of Tier 1 capital as of September 2025 (175% at YE 2016). Scope estimates that the group would be able to withstand a write-down on its domestic government bond portfolio of more than 50% and remain prudentially viable. In line with Scope’s Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, the rating on the issuer is not mechanically capped at the level of the sovereign.

Financial viability management assessment: Comfortable (+1 notch). The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the issuer’s maintains comfortable buffers to relevant regulatory requirements and Scope expects it to continue to do so. The issuer’s financial viability is largely resilient to tail-risk events.

UniCredit maintains comfortable capital buffers – 410 bp above minimum requirements – supported by strong earnings generation and the optimisation of risk-weighted assets, partly via SRTs. In line with management strategy, the group has started to reduce excess capital towards its medium-term target range of 12.5-13% through share buybacks, investments and acquisitions; as of September 2025, the CET1 ratio stood at 14.8%.

The group’s funding is well-diversified, with customer deposits representing 54% of total balance sheet. The stock of debt securities is sizeable (11% of total balance sheet), but risks are mitigated by UniCredit’s regular and broad access to the financial markets. Funding is coordinated by the parent, UniCredit SpA, with subsidiaries issuing mainly covered bonds and senior preferred notes. As of September 2025, liquidity and funding metrics were solid.

One or more key drivers of the credit rating action are considered an ESG factor.

Outlook and rating sensitivities

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that the risks to the current rating are balanced.

The upside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. Rebalancing of the group’s operations towards stronger banking environments, either through M&A or organic growth, could lead to an upgrade of the Operating Environment assessment.
    
2. Evidence that the group can maintain strong earnings buffers over the cycle combined with a reduction in the exposure to Italian sovereign risk could lead to an upgrade of the Earnings Capacity and Risk Exposures assessment

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. A significant reduction in capital buffers could lead to a lower Financial Viability Assessment qualifier.
    
2. A material deterioration in the group’s performance, combined with worsening asset quality and higher exposure to the Italian sovereign risk, could lead to a downgrade of the Earnings Capacity and Risk Exposures assessment.

Subsidiaries and affiliates: ratings and Outlooks

UniCredit Bank GmbH: A/Stable

The rating on UniCredit Bank GmbH (HVB) is aligned with that of its parent company, UniCredit SpA. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent company under our top-down approach.

Scope rates HVB using a top-down approach because it is considered an integral subsidiary of the UniCredit group. The assessment reflects HVB’s status as a material subsidiary within the group’s single point of entry resolution perimeter, its full ownership by UniCredit SpA, and its high level of strategic alignment with the parent company. Although funding strategy is coordinated at group level, there is limited financial interdependency between HVB and the parent company.

Scope deems the parent company's willingness to support HVB to be 'high', which underpins the ratings alignment. The assessment incorporates business-related operational links between HVB and the parent company, including in IT and support areas, as well as the participation of the parent company’s representatives in HVB’s governance bodies. It also considers the fact that HVB operates under the same brand and that it is unlikely that there will be significant regulatory restrictions preventing support from flowing, given that both HVB and its parent company are domiciled in the EU. The comparatively high cost of support given HVB’s size has no impact on the assessment.

Scope could review the assessment if the rating of the parent or the support assumptions were to change. Scope would upgrade HVB’s ratings in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the expectation of group support would diminish.

UniCredit Bank Austria AG: A/Stable

The rating on UniCredit Bank Austria AG is aligned with that of its parent company, UniCredit SpA. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent company under our top-down approach.

Scope rates the bank using a top-down approach because it is considered an integral subsidiary of the UniCredit group. The assessment reflects the bank’s status as a material subsidiary within the group’s single point of entry resolution perimeter, its full ownership by UniCredit SpA, and its high level of strategic alignment with the parent company. Although funding strategy is coordinated at group level, there is limited financial interdependency between UniCredit Bank Austria and the parent company.

Scope deems the parent company's willingness to support the bank to be 'high', which underpins the ratings alignment. The assessment incorporates business-related operational links between HVB and the parent company, including in IT and support areas, as well as the participation of the parent company’s representatives in the bank’s governance bodies. It also considers the fact that UniCredit Bank Austria operates under the same brand, the ‘medium’ cost of support in case of need, and that it is unlikely that there will be significant regulatory restrictions preventing support from flowing, given that both the bank and its parent company are domiciled in the EU.

Scope could review the assessment if the rating of the parent or the support assumptions were to change. Scope would upgrade UniCredit Bank Austria’s ratings in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the expectation of group support would diminish.

Debt ratings

Preferred senior unsecured debt: A/Stable. The rating is aligned with the issuer rating and applies to senior unsecured debt ranking above other classes of senior unsecured debt.

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt: A-/Stable. The rating is one notch lower than the issuer rating, reflecting statutory subordination.

Short-term debt: S-1. UniCredit’s short-term credit rating is derived from the long-term issuer credit rating. The rating is consistent with Scope’s long-term/short-term rating correspondence table. The choice of the highest possible short-term rating (S-1 given the issuer rating of A) reflects the strength of the group’s liquidity profile and access to central bank funding.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

Please refer to the ‘long-term sustainability assessment’ under the ‘key rating drivers’ section above for the ESG analysis.

All rating actions and rated entities

UniCredit SpA

Issuer rating: A/Stable, affirmed

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A/Stable, affirmed

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A-/Stable, affirmed

Short-term debt rating: S-1/Stable, affirmed

UniCredit Bank GmbH

Issuer rating: A/Stable, affirmed

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A/Stable, affirmed

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A-/Stable, affirmed

UniCredit Bank Austria AG

Issuer rating: A/Stable, affirmed

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A/Stable, affirmed

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A-/Stable, affirmed

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. No cash flow analysis was performed.

Methodology
The methodology used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks, (Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, 18 September 2025), is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Credit Ratings were not requested by the Rated Entity or its Related Third Parties. The Credit Rating process was conducted:
With Rated Entity or Related Third Party participation   YES
With access to internal documents                                 NO
With access to management                                           NO
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Rating: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings’ internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
The/These Credit Ratings and Outlooks are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Alessandro Boratti, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Rating: Marco Troiano, Managing Director
UniCredit’s issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 11 June 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit’s short-term Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 11 June 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit’s preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 11 June 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit’s non-preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 30 January 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit Bank GmbH’s issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 4 June 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit Bank GmbH’s preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 26 July 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit Bank GmbH’s non-preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 4 June. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit Bank Austria AG’s issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 1 June 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit Bank Austria AG’s preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 1 June 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
UniCredit Bank Austria AG’s non-preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 12 July 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
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