Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has affirmed Credit Agricole SA (CASA)’s issuer rating of AA- and preferred senior unsecured debt rating of AA-, with a Stable Outlook.

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is detailed at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

The ratings assigned to Credit Agricole S.A. are based on the credit fundamentals of the consolidated Credit Agricole Group (CA Group or the group), including the regional banks.

Business model assessment: Very resilient (low). The issuer rating is anchored by the group’s very resilient (low) business model assessment. With EUR 2.5trn in total assets as of Q3’25, CA Group is one of the largest banking groups in Europe and a globally systemically financial institution. It is a well-diversified European banking group, with a leading retail and commercial banking franchise in France, complemented by a leading European asset management arm and a well-established insurance unit. Lending activities (47% of total assets) generate around 51% of revenues, CIB around 22%, wealth management and asset gathering activities 12%, insurance 8% and specialised services 7%. The mix of activities allows for a balanced risk profile, combining a large, stable and mostly secured retail loan book that represents almost 50% of the total loan book, with potentially more cyclical corporate lending and investment banking activities.

In comparison to other large and diversified European banking groups, CA Group is more reliant on its home market, that represents around 62% of on and off-balance sheet exposures. The ACT 2028 plan includes, among its strategic objectives, an increase of non-domestic revenues to about 60% of the total. The group has a material commercial banking operation in Italy, whose strategic relevance is proven by successive bolt-on acquisitions in the country and by the recent increase in its stake in Banco BPM.

Operating environment assessment: Supportive (high). This assessment reflects Scope’s blended view of the different markets where Credit Agricole SA. operates.

France (Supportive - high) represents 62% of credit exposures. France is the second largest economy in the EU, with total GDP of EUR 3.2trn and GDP per capita of EUR46,200. The economy is diversified and driven by high value-added activities with a sound and resilient banking sector. Scope expects real GDP growth to slow down to 0.7%in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, to reach then the medium-run rate potential of 1.1% on average between 2027 and 2030. Political fragmentation and polarisation have led to government instability in recent years, and to the inability to bring public finances under control.

The banking sector is sizeable and includes four globally systemically important banks. The sector is highly concentrated, with the five largest banking groups accounting for 70% of domestic assets. Sector’s profitability has been lagging the levels observed in other EU countries, due to legal limitations slowing down asset repricing and regulated savings weighting on the cost of liabilities. Nevertheless, the sector has somewhat improved its profitability while maintaining strong asset quality.

France is part of the European Banking Union, which has brought a significant strengthening and harmonisation in regulation and supervision under the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism, which we consider to be supportive of financial stability. The European Central Bank also shares with national central banks the role of lender of last resort, providing liquidity to the financial sector.

Scope arrives at an initial mapping of ‘a’ based on a combined assessment of the issuer’s operating environment and business model.

Long-term sustainability assessment (ESG factor): Positive (+1 notch). It reflects Scope’s view that the issuer is effectively and proactively managing sustainability-related considerations and stands out as a frontrunner in at least one sustainability theme that enhances its credit standing.

The group’s asset management and insurance subsidiaries maintain strong expertise and strategic focus in areas such as green bonds and sustainable investments. The group is committed to play a relevant role in climate change adaptation to support its customers, also due to the relevance of the agricultural and agri-food industry sector in France. Scope considers that the focus on sustainability provides a competitive edge for the group’s wealth and asset management activities.

Digital capabilities are also part of the strategic objectives to strengthen its banking franchise and are now a key objective of the 2028 strategy. The group aims for new growth opportunities in Europe leveraging on digital solutions to specialised markets such as the agricultural market. We expect these initiatives to strengthen the franchise with revenue generation and efficiency gains that could materialise in the long-term.

The group’s overall governance structure is well managed but complex, combining a broad business diversification and a cooperative structure. In addition, the group’s commitment to support regional development based on its cooperative regional structure plays a relevant role in terms of social impact.

The long-term sustainability assessment leads to an adjusted rating anchor of a+.

Earnings capacity and risk exposures assessment: Neutral. The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the group’s earnings capacity may fluctuate over economic cycles but is sufficient to cover expected losses. Asset quality is broadly in line with peers. Risks are unlikely to generate losses capable of undermining the issuer’s viability.

Profitability has historically been relatively stable but at the lower range compared to peers (return on average RWAs c. 1.6% for the period 2021-2025). Earnings capacity is showing a positive trajectory for the 9M’25 due to higher results from CIB, asset & wealth management and insurance, as well as due to the gradual repricing on loans and decrease of funding costs that is finally providing upside on net interest margins for the retail portfolio. However, the large component of French mortgage loans weights on the ability to adjust margins limiting the potential for faster repricing.

CA Group’s risk exposures are well balanced comprising a granular retail and commercial loan portfolio and a well-diversified corporate loan portfolio. Cost of risk at group level is relatively stable and stood at 29bps in Q3 25. Asset quality is a strength, with a non-performing loan ratio at 2.2% at the end of Q3 2025, which we consider strong as the loan portfolio is mainly composed by mortgage loans (45%), followed by corporate loans (33%), consumer finance (8%) and SMEs loans (5%). Scope considers that risks arising from sector concentrations are not material, as the loan book is well balanced. Given the group’s organic growth strategy and focus on retail commercial banking, Scope does not expect significant changes in the loan portfolio composition in the near-term.

Financial viability management assessment: Comfortable (+1 notch). The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the bank maintains a comfortable buffer above relevant regulatory requirements and Scope expects it to continue to do so. The issuer’s financial viability is largely resilient to tail-risk events.

The group’s prudential metrics are robust. CET 1 ratio as of Sept 2025 stood at 17.6%, a buffer of 768bps above SREP requirement, and closely aligned with the CET1 target of above 17%. The confirmation of the target level for CET 1 at 17% for the period 2026-2028 provides comfort on the conservative approach for capital management. Distance to MDA restrictions is also comfortable, both in terms of buffer to requirements and in absolute amount. The lowest distance to requirements is on the leverage ratio, with 214bps above requirement, equivalent to EUR 47bn, which remains at the upper range compared to peers.

CA Group benefits from a stable and granular base of customer deposits that represent more than two-thirds of total funding and of which 65% are retail deposits (individuals, SMEs and regulated passbooks). Wholesale funding (30% of direct funding and EUR 322bn as of Q3 2025) is very stable and mainly composed by senior preferred debt (51% of the total), followed by senior secured including covered bonds (30% of the total). Liquidity is adequate and supported by a large liquidity reserve of EUR 488bn and a LCR at 135% at group level.

One or more key drivers of the credit rating action are considered an ESG factor.

Outlook and rating sensitivities

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that the risks to the current rating are balanced.

The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlooks is:

1. Further improvements in profitability while maintaining good asset quality and preserving a low overall risk profile, could lead to a more favourable earnings capacity and risk exposure assessment.

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. A material deterioration in asset quality deteriorates materially, with increasing provisions undermining the group’s capacity to generate earnings, could lead to a downgrade of the earnings capacity and risk exposure assessment.
    
2. A more aggressive capital management policy, targeting a significant reduction in capital targets and regulatory buffers, that could result from an increase in RWA should the group accelerates growth in riskier business segments, or significantly expand the scope of its international operations, could lead to a downgrade of the financial viability management assessment.

Subsidiaries and affiliates: ratings and Outlooks

Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH SA: AA-/Stable.

The rating on Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH (CA SFH) is aligned to that of its parent, CASA. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent under a top-down approach.

Scope rates CA SFH using a top-down approach because the entity is considered an integral subsidiary of the group’s refinancing entity for the French home loan business originated under the group’s retail network. The assessment reflects the inclusion of CASFH under the resolution perimeter of CASA, its full ownership by, and its high level of strategic alignment and financial interdependencies with the parent as a covered bond issuer for the group.

Scope deems the parent's willingness to support CA SFH to be 'high'. The assessment incorporates the subsidiary’s high operational integration with the parent. It also considers the fact that there is a direct linkage to the group’s reputational risk.

Scope would upgrade CA SFH’s issuer rating in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the likelihood of parent support has decreased.

Credit Agricole Public Sector SCF SA: AA-/Stable.

The rating on Credit Agricole Home Loan SCF (CA SCF) is aligned to that of its parent, CASA. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent under a top-down approach.

Scope rates CA SCF using a top-down approach because the entity is considered an integral subsidiary supporting the group’s refinancing strategy via covered bonds with collateral from the public sector loans originated by CASA. The assessment reflects the inclusion of CA SCF under the resolution perimeter of CASA, its full ownership by, and its high level of strategic alignment and financial interdependencies with the parent as a covered bond issuer.

Scope deems the parent's willingness to support CA SCF to be 'high'. The assessment incorporates the subsidiary’s high operational integration with the parent. It also considers the fact that there is a direct linkage to the group’s reputational risk.

Scope would upgrade CA SCF’s issuer rating in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the likelihood of parent support has decreased.

CA Auto Bank SpA: A+/Stable.

The rating on CA Auto bank SpA (CAAB) is one notch below that of its parent, CASA. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent under a top-down approach.

Scope rates CAAB using a top-down approach because CAAB is considered an integral subsidiary of CASA. The assessment reflects CAAB’s status as a material subsidiary within the group’s resolution perimeter, its full ownership by CASA, and its high level of strategic alignment with the parent. The rationale for the notch differential is driven by the full independency in funding managed by CAAB, mostly due to the differences in the maturity profile of its loan portfolio (short-medium term auto loans) and business model.

Scope deems the parent's willingness to support CAAB to be 'high'. The assessment incorporates CAAB’s high operational integration, including IT and support areas, as well as the participation of the parent company’s representatives in CAAB’s governance bodies. It also considers the fact that CAAB operates under a different brand and that it is unlikely that there will be significant regulatory restrictions preventing support from flowing, given that both CAAB and its parent are domiciled in the EU. The comparatively low cost of support given CAAB’s size has no impact on the assessment.

Scope would upgrade CAAB’s issuer rating in case of an upgrade of the parent or from a strengthening of the level of integration with the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the likelihood of parent support has decreased

Debt ratings

Preferred senior unsecured debt: AA-/Stable. The rating is aligned with the issuer rating and applies to senior unsecured debt ranking above other classes of senior unsecured debt.

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt: A+/Stable. The rating is one notch lower than the issuer rating, reflecting its statutory subordination.

Short-term debt: S-1+/Stable. The short-term credit rating is derived from the long-term issuer credit rating. The rating is consistent with Scope’s long-term/short-term rating correspondence table. The choice of the highest possible short-term rating (S-1+ given the AA- issuer rating) reflects the strength of the liquidity profile of the group and access to central bank funding.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

Please refer to the ‘long-term sustainability assessment’ under the ‘key rating drivers’ section above for the ESG analysis.

All rating actions and rated entities

Credit Agricole SA

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A+/Stable, affirmed

Short-term debt rating: S-1+/Stable, affirmed

Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH:

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Credit Agricole Public Sector SCF

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

CA Auto Bank SpA

Issuer rating: A+/Stable, affirmed

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A+/Stable, affirmed

CA Auto Bank, Irish branch

Issuer rating: A+/Stable, affirmed and publication status changed from “Subscription” to “Public”

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. No cash flow analysis was performed.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings and Outlooks, (Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, 18 September 2025), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Credit Ratings were not requested by the Rated Entity or its Related Third Parties. The Credit Rating process was conducted:
With Rated Entity or Related Third Party participation         YES
With access to internal documents                                        NO
With access to management                                                  NO
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: the Rated Entity, public domain and Scope Ratings’ internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and Outlooks were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and Outlooks are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Carola Saldias, Senior Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Marco Troiano, Managing Director
Credit Agricole SA’s issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 2 April 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
Credit Agricole SA’s preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 2 April 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
Credit Agricole SA’s short-term Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 22 May 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
Credit Agricole SA’s non-preferred senior unsecured debtCredit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 6 March 2020. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH’s issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 4 February 2019. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
Credit Agricole Public Sector SCF’s issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 4 February 2019. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
CA Auto Bank SpA’s Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 17 May 2019. The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were last updated on 13 December 2024.
CA Auto Bank, Irish branch Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 5 March 2025.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin. Public Ratings are generally accessible to the public. Subscription Ratings and Private Ratings are confidential and may not be shared with any unauthorised third party.