Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has taken the following rating actions on the instruments issued by Ibla S.r.l.:

Class A (ISIN IT0005342891), EUR 11.2m outstanding: upgraded to A_SF from BBB+_SF

Class B (ISIN IT0005342909), EUR 9.0m outstanding: affirmed at B_SF

Class J (ISIN IT0005342917), EUR 3.5m outstanding: not rated

Transaction overview

The transaction is a static cash securitisation of an Italian non-performing loan (NPL) portfolio originated by Banca Agricola Popolare di Ragusa S.C.p.A. worth around EUR 349m by gross book value. The issuer acquired the portfolio on the transfer date, 9 August 2018. At closing, the pool was comprised of both secured (67.2%) and unsecured (32.8%) loans extended to companies (74.4%) and individuals (25.6%). Secured loans are backed by residential and non-residential properties (57.8% and 42.2% of property value, respectively). Almost all properties are located on the island of Sicily.

The structure comprises three classes of notes with fully sequential principal amortisation: senior class A, mezzanine class B, and junior class J. The class B margin ranks senior to class A principal at closing, but will be subordinated if the cumulative amounts collected are around 15% below the level indicated in the servicer’s business plan, or if the present value cumulative profitability ratio falls below 85%. The class B base rate is permanently subordinated to class A principal. Class J principal and interest are subordinated to the repayment of the senior and mezzanine notes.

The transaction is currently serviced by Phoenix Asset Management as special servicer, with doNext S.p.A. (formerly Italfondiario S.p.A.) acting as the master servicer. BNP Paribas SA (formerly BNP Paribas Securities Services SCA) serves as the account bank, while Banca IMI S.p.A. acts as the interest rate cap counterparty.

Relevant changes to the key transaction features

Class A coverage has significantly strengthened since closing. The gross coverage ratio (calculated as expected recoveries divided by senior notes’ outstanding principal amount) has increased to 316.5% from 218.2% at closing, under the B case.

The servicer’s cumulative collection ratio is 64.7%, currently below the trigger for the subordination of mezzanine notes interest margin payments.

There have been no significant changes to Scope’s assessment of counterparty risk.

Rating rationale

The rating action follows: i) the periodic re-assessment of the transaction´s key rating drivers, ii) a review of its key assumptions, considering the observed performance of the collateral and Scope’s economic outlook, and iii) any material changes to the key transaction features (portfolio composition, structural features, counterparties).

The rating upgrade is primarily driven by significant overperformance in terms of timing of collections relative to Scope’s initial assumptions. Class A notes have amortised by 86.8%, significantly ahead of expectations. In addition, unsecured positions have overperformed Scope’s initial projections, positively contributing to the transaction’s overall credit profile.

Key rating drivers

Scope has changed its assessment of one of the key rating drivers disclosed in the initial rating action release dated 6 September 2018. Scope no longer considers seasoned unsecured portfolio as a negative rating driver, given that this portion of the portfolio has materially outperformed Scope’s initial expectations. The other key rating drivers remain unchanged.

None of the key rating drivers are ESG related.

Key analytical assumptions¹

• Rating-conditional lifetime gross recovery rates
   
• Rating-conditional recovery timing vectors

The analytical assumptions incorporate the transaction’s historical performance and peer transaction benchmarks. They may also reflect qualitative judgments based on various factors, including (a) the servicer’s recovery strategies, (b) Scope’s macroeconomic expectations, and (c) the credit committee’s outlook for the asset class over the transaction’s remaining lifetime.

Updates to these assumptions and other parameters are provided under the section ‘Quantitative analysis’.

Key performance metrics

As of the last collection date, aggregate gross collections were EUR 106.8m, which represents 65% of the original business plan expectations. The breakdown of collections is as follows: judicial proceeds (56.2%), discounted pay-off proceeds (38.5%), credit sales proceeds (3.8%), and other sources (1.5%).

The most recent business plan update projects gross recoveries to be 16.4% below initial expectations and reflects a more back-loaded recovery profile than initially anticipated. The net present value cumulative profitability ratio, computed for closed positions, stands at 125.3%, while the cumulative collection ratio stands at 64.7%.

Key data sources

Scope’s review was based on servicer, investor and payment reporting as of October 2025 payment date. Scope also considered the macro-economic and NPL sector context reflected in the 2025 structured finance outlook.

Rating-change drivers

A change to the key quantitative assumptions based on observed performance or new data sources, significant changes to the key transaction´s features, and a change in Scope’s credit views regarding the key rating drivers could impact the ratings.

Sensitivity analysis

This analysis is solely intended to illustrate the sensitivity of the credit rating to the assumed parameters and, all else being equal, does not reflect expected or likely scenarios.

• 10% haircut to gross recoveries: one notch for class A, two notches for class B
   
• One-year increase of recovery lag: one notch for class A, one notch for class B

Quantitative analysis

The following key quantitative parameters have changed since closing:

• Lifetime recovery rate at B case has been revised to 36% from 38% at closing, based on a weighted average life of 1.67 years.
   
• Recovery expenses have been updated to 14% of expected gross recoveries from 9% at closing.
   
• Rating conditional interest rate vectors: as disclosed in Scope´s General Structured Finance Rating Methodology.

Rating driver references
1. Transaction reporting (Confidential)

Stress testing
Stress testing was performed by applying Credit-Rating-adjusted recovery rate assumptions.

Cash flow analysis
Scope Ratings performed a cash flow analysis of the transaction with the use of Scope Ratings’ Cash Flow Model Version 2.2 incorporating relevant asset assumptions and taking into account the transaction’s main structural features, such as the instruments’ priority of payments, the instruments’ size and coupons. The outcome of the analysis is an expected loss rate and an expected weighted average life for the instruments based on the generated cash flows.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings, (Non-Performing Loan ABS Rating Methodology, 1 August 2025; Counterparty Risk Methodology, 30 June 2025; General Structured Finance Rating Methodology, 13 February 2025), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The model used for these Credit Ratings is (Cash Flow Model Version 2.2), available in Scope Ratings’ list of models, published under scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity, the Rated Entities’ Related Third Parties, third parties and Scope Ratings’ internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Scope Ratings has received a third-party asset due diligence assessment/asset audit at closing. The external due diligence assessment/asset audit was considered when preparing the Credit Ratings and it has no impact on the Credit Ratings.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Elom Kwamin, Senior Analyst
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Benoit Vasseur, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings were first released by Scope Ratings on 6 September 2018. The Credit Ratings were last updated on 3 April 2023.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
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