Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has affirmed BNP Paribas SA (BNPP)’s long-term issuer rating of AA- and preferred senior unsecured debt of AA-, both with Stable Outlook.

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

Business model assessment: Very resilient (low). The issuer rating is anchored by the very resilient (low) business model assessment. With total assets of EUR 2.8trn, BNPP is a pan-European financial conglomerate, one of the largest banking groups globally and a globally systemically important financial institution. Revenues are well-balanced between interest and non-interest income, with 34% of revenues coming from commercial and personal banking activities, 38% from CIB, 18% from specialised business and 13% from insurance and wealth management. BNPP’s broad business and geographic diversification has provided a proven track record of stable and recurrent earnings through the cycle.

Retail banking in the eurozone sits at the core for the group’s business model, although it represents only 48% of total loans, making the balance sheet of the group relatively light in terms of asset risk intensity when compared with peers. The group has been able to strengthen its European market position in CIB, leading in syndicated loans, DCM and bond issuances. In global markets, BNPP has a solid franchise in fixed-income, equity and currency markets.

Operating environment assessment: Supportive (high). The assessment reflects Scope’s blended view of the different markets where BNPP operates. Banking Union member countries such as France, Belgium, and Italy represent the bulk of BNP’s credit exposures. We consider this a structural strength supporting our operating environment assessment for these countries, given the significant strengthening and harmonisation in bank regulation and supervision under the Single Supervisory Mechanism, and the ability of the ECB to act as a lender of last resort, alongside national central banks.

France (Supportive - high) is the core country for the group’s operating environment assessment and represents around 26% of BNPP’s credit exposures. France is the second largest economy in the EU, with total GDP of EUR 3.2trn and GDP per capita of EUR46,200. The economy is diversified and driven by high value-added activities with a sound and resilient banking sector. Scope expects real GDP growth to slow down to 0.7%in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, to reach then the medium-run rate potential of 1.1% on average between 2027 and 2030. Political fragmentation and polarisation have led to government instability in recent years, and to the inability to bring public finances under control.

The banking sector is sizeable and includes four globally systemically important banks. The sector is highly concentrated, with the five largest banking groups accounting for 70% of domestic assets, all with well diversified business models, including retail and commercial banking, CIB, insurance and wealth management. The profitability of the sector has been lagging the levels observed in other EU countries, due to legal limitations slowing down asset repricing and regulated savings weighting on the cost of liabilities. Nevertheless, the sector has somewhat improved its profitability while maintaining strong asset quality.

Belgium (Supportive – High), represents around 11% of BNPP’s credit exposures. Belgium’s economy benefits from its high wealth levels and diversified structure, supported by high value-added services, with strong market access and a sound external position. Significant resilience factors support the Belgian economy, including high household net wealth and a sound household debt structure. Belgium’s GDP per capita of approximately USD 56k is above the EU average. The macroeconomic outlook in Belgium is supportive for banks, despite the ongoing slowdown and the weak fiscal outlook.

The banking sector is consolidated and underpinned by solid fundamentals following extensive restructuring and de-risking since the global financial crisis. The 2026 outlook remains stable, underpinned by solid capitalisation and comfortable liquidity, even as profitability gradually normalises. Risks remain contained, although continued vigilance is warranted regarding exposures in real estate lending. We anticipate a moderate uptick in problem loans in line with rising bankruptcies in Belgium, but from a low level.

Scope arrives at an initial mapping of a based on a combined assessment of the issuer’s operating environment and business model.

Long-term sustainability assessment (ESG factor): Positive (+1 notch). It reflects Scope’s view that BNP is effectively and proactively managing sustainability-related considerations and stands out as a frontrunner in at least one sustainability theme that enhances its credit standing.

ESG considerations are a key strategic focus for BNPP’s due to its relevant position as asset and wealth manager and leading role as global ESG bonds and loans’ issuer. The acquisition of AXA IM supports further its role as a relevant ESG investor, strengthening its asset management footprint globally. The strategic focus to become a reference partner for ESG transition on its CIB business is a clear commitment to support its clients to actively manage transition risks.

Investments in digital capabilities, including the development of its digital bank Hello Bank, highlight the relevance of digital banking for BNPP’s business model. However, in our view, progress in this space is not yet translating in relevant competitive differentiation neither in significant efficiency gains.

The long-term sustainability assessment leads to an adjusted rating anchor of a+.

Earnings capacity and risk exposures assessment: Supportive (+1 notch). The assessment reflects Scope’s view that earnings capacity is stable through economic cycles and provides a strong buffer against losses. Risks are well managed and are highly unlikely to lead to losses capable of undermining the issuer’s viability.

BNPP’s has been able to steadily grow recurring earnings as the group enlarges its footprint outside its core EU markets. While some of its lending activities (consumer, commercial and specialised finance) have a higher risk-return profile compared to traditional retail mortgages, the group has demonstrated an ability to generate a consistent gross revenue stream, with a pre-provision profit in the EUR 14bn to EUR 16bn range for the past decade. Revenues from non-banking activities, such as securities services, insurance and wealth management, that carry almost no asset quality risk, are growing and represent now more than 20% of total revenues. Scope notes that the volatility from revenues related to corporate and institutional banking has been contained and offset by growth from insurance and wealth management.

While return on average RWAs has remained healthy at an average at 1.6% for the past 5 years, BNPP’s profitability has not benefitted from the interest rate cycle as much as some peers with a more traditional commercial banking model, and is expected to display significant stability through the cycle.

The expected improvement on cost efficiency, a key element of the strategic plan and group’s transformation, could provide further improvements in profitability, but in our view, with potential effects to be expected in the medium-long term.

Risk exposures are relatively granular and well diversified. Cost of risk stands below 40bps for most business lines, and NPLs have improved steadily remaining stable at 2.9% as of Q2 2025, the lowest level for the past decade. Personal Finance, the business line which includes consumer credit and displays more volatile credit performance is undergoing a refocusing, including divestments in several countries and reorganisation of the operational model to achieve a structural improvement of the risk profile. Scope believes this will further support the stability of earnings in the medium term.

Financial viability management assessment: Adequate. The assessment reflects Scope’s view that financial viability management provides some buffer and, under a base case scenario, could not imminently push any metric close to minimum requirements or jeopardise the issuer’s financial viability.

The current CET1 ratio of 12.5% compares with a CET1 requirement (including buffers) of 10.5%. The minimum buffer to MDA restrictions is CET 1 level (199 bps), which in our view is tight compared to peers. The group has recently increased its target CET1 ratio to 13%, which will support maintaining an adequate distance to requirements for the period 2026-2027. Scope considers the buffer adequate, based on its large absolute size in nominal terms and the high granularity of risk exposures. The 360bps buffer to TLAC requirements, comprising exclusively subordinated instruments, provides additional protection to the senior portion of the capital structure. The leverage ratio of 4.3% compares with an all-in requirement of 3.85% and is in our view a source of pressure on the group’s capital management, due to volatility from credit equivalent off-balance sheet exposures.

Funding is characterised by a low component of deposits when compared to peers, reflecting its active funding strategy in wholesale markets. Deposits (of which 46% are retail) represent 56% of direct funding, while wholesale funds represent 37% as of Q3 2025. At 109%, the Net Stable Funding Ratio is low relative to peers because of the larger component of short-term wholesale funding vs retails deposits. Given its large use of wholesale funding, funding costs could be subject to some volatility in times of financial distress, but we take comfort on BNPP’s strong track record as a frequent issuer in international financial markets and maintain ready access to capital market funding through the cycle.

Liquidity is adequate considering the group’s orientation to CIB and wealth management. While the LCR ratio stood at 138% as of Sept 2025, relatively low compared with peers, the nominal size of the liquidity reserve, EUR 481bn as of Q3 2025, represents more than half of the group’s deposits base.

One or more key drivers of the credit rating action are considered an ESG factor.

Outlook and rating sensitivities

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that the risks to the current rating are balanced.

The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlooks is:

1. A more conservative capital management policy allowing for larger buffers above minimum regulatory requirements, leading to a positive review of the group’s financial viability management assessment.

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. A deterioration of the group’s earnings generation potential, or a weakening of asset quality, resulting in a downgrade of the earnings capacity and risk exposure’s assessment.
    
2. A significant weakening of the group’s financial viability profile, or a deterioration of funding and liquidity metrics, would put downwards pressure on the financial viability management assessment.

Subsidiaries and affiliates: ratings and Outlooks

BNP Paribas Fortis: AA-/Stable. The rating on BNP Paribas Fortis (BNPF) is aligned to that of its parent, BNP Paribas S.A. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent under a top-down approach.

Scope rates BNPF using a top-down approach because the subsidiary is an essential and integral part of BNP Paribas group, as the arm for the banking operations in Belgium. The assessment reflects BNPF’s inclusion under the resolution perimeter of the group, its full ownership by, and its high level of strategic alignment with the parent. BNPF’s financial interdependence with the group is limited, since the subsidiary is self-funding via customers deposits.

Scope deems the parent's willingness to support BNPF to be 'high'. The assessment incorporates a high operational integration, including IT and support areas, as well as the oversight of the parent on governance bodies. It also considers the fact that BNPF operates under a similar brand and that it is unlikely that there will be significant regulatory restrictions preventing support from flowing, given that both BNPF and its parent are domiciled in the EU. The comparatively high cost of support given BNPF’s size versus its parent has no impact on the assessment.

Scope would upgrade BNPF’s issuer rating in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the likelihood of parent support has decreased.

Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro: AA-/Stable. The rating on Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro (BNL) is aligned to that of its parent, BNP Paribas S.A. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent under a top-down approach.

Scope rates BNL using a top-down approach because the subsidiary is an essential and integral part of BNP Paribas group, as the arm for the banking operations in Italy. The assessment reflects BNL’s inclusion under the resolution perimeter of the group, its full ownership by, and its high level of strategic alignment with the parent. BNL’s financial interdependence with the group is limited, since the subsidiary is self-funding via customers deposits.

Scope deems the parent's willingness to support BNPF to be 'high'. The assessment incorporates a high operational integration, including IT and support areas, as well as the oversight of the parent on governance bodies. While BNL operates under a different brand, we do not consider this a limitation for the assumption of support. Given that both BNL and its parent are domiciled in the EU, it is unlikely that there will be significant regulatory restrictions preventing support from flowing. The comparatively low cost of support given BNL’s size has no impact on the assessment.

Scope would upgrade BNL’s issuer rating in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the likelihood of parent support has decreased.

BNP Paribas Home Loan SFH: AA-/Stable. The rating on BNP Paribas Home Loan SFH. (BNP SFH) is aligned to that of its parent, SG. This is driven by Scope’s view that there is a high likelihood of support from the parent under a top-down approach.

Scope rates BNP SFH using a top-down approach because the entity is considered an integral subsidiary of the group’s refinancing entity for the French home loan business originated under the group’s retail network. The assessment reflects the inclusion of BNP SFH under the resolution perimeter of BNPP, its full ownership by, and its high level of strategic alignment and financial interdependencies with the parent as a covered bond issuer for the group.

Scope deems the parent's willingness to support BNP SFH to be 'high'. The assessment incorporates the subsidiary’s high operational integration with the parent. It also considers the fact that there is a direct linkage to the group’s reputational risk.

Scope would upgrade BNP SFH’s issuer rating in case of an upgrade of the parent. Conversely, the issuer rating could be downgraded if the parent is downgraded, or if Scope believes that the likelihood of parent support has decreased.

Debt ratings

Preferred senior unsecured debt: AA-/Stable. The rating is aligned with the issuer rating and applies to senior unsecured debt ranking above other classes of senior unsecured debt.

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt: A+/Stable. The rating is one notch lower than the issuer rating, reflecting its statutory subordination.

Short-term debt: S-1+/Stable. BNP Paribas S.A.’s short-term credit rating is derived from the long-term issuer credit rating. The rating is consistent with Scope’s long-term/short-term rating correspondence table. The choice of the highest possible short-term rating (S-1+ given the AA- issuer rating) reflects the strength of the liquidity profile of the group and access to central bank funding.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

Please refer to the ‘long-term sustainability assessment’ under the ‘key rating drivers’ section above for the ESG analysis.

All rating actions and rated entities

BNP Paribas SA’s

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt rating: A+/Stable, affirmed

Short-term debt rating: S-1+/Stable, affirmed

BNP Paribas Fortis

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Senior unsecured debt rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

BNP Paribas Home Loan SFH

Issuer rating: AA-/Stable, affirmed

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. No cash flow analysis was performed.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings and Outlooks, (Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, 18 September 2025), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Credit Ratings were not requested by the Rated Entity or its Related Third Parties. The Credit Rating process was conducted:
With Rated Entity or Related Third Party participation       YES
With access to internal documents                                     NO
With access to management                                              NO
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: the Rated Entity, public domain and Scope Ratings’ internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and Outlooks were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and Outlooks are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Carola Saldias, Senior Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Marco Troiano, Managing Director
BNP Paribas SA issuer Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 2 April 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
BNP Paribas SA preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 2 April 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
BNP Paribas SA short-term Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 22 May 2014. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
BNP Paribas SA non-preferred senior unsecured debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 4 March 2020. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
BNP Paribas Home Loan SFH SA Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 10 January 2019. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.
BNP Paribas Fortis SA Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 10 January 2019. The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were last updated on 13 December 2024.
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 12 December 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 13 December 2024.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin. Public Ratings are generally accessible to the public. Subscription Ratings and Private Ratings are confidential and may not be shared with any unauthorised third party.