Geopolitical risks are moving towards the top end of large banks’ worries but pinpointing them with any degree of accuracy remains elusive. The thing that key financial actors are longing for: the “business as usual” of efficient global markets open and eager for competition against a non-conflictual political backdrop could be behind us for a generation, writes Sam Theodore. It’s a longing as unrealistic as banks’ “back to normal” expectations of solid double-digit ROEs right after the GFC.

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