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      EU Banks NPL Heatmaps: high corporate NPLs, slow growth, geopolitics to weaken asset quality
      FRIDAY, 09/01/2026 - Scope Ratings GmbH
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      EU Banks NPL Heatmaps: high corporate NPLs, slow growth, geopolitics to weaken asset quality

      The EU NPL ratio continues to be low and stable, but corporate NPLs are elevated in some core countries. At a time of rising geopolitical risk, trade tensions and an uncertain economic outlook, we expect a modest deterioration in asset quality.

      As of Q3 2025 (the latest available EBA data), the consolidated EU NPL ratio remained stable at 1.84% (see heatmap). Quarterly changes at the national level were 3bp-4bp. Germany, France and Belgium continued to experience the largest quarterly increases, while Denmark, Italy and Spain continued their downward trend.

       

      While the corporate NPL ratio remains elevated, it held steady in Q3. However, around half of the EU countries in our sample experienced quarterly deterioration led by France (+10bp), Germany (+8bp) and Austria (+5bp). In contrast Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands saw remarkable reductions of 29bp, 16bp and 10bp respectively. Spain, Denmark and Italy have experienced a gradual improvement in recent years.

      From a sector standpoint, administrative and support services NPLs spiked in Austria and Germany by 370bp and 140bp quarter on quarter respectively, while education sector NPLs in Italy rose by 260bp. NPL ratios in wholesale and retail trade and real estate activities increased marginally.

      NPL ratios in the household sector remained broadly stable, with most countries in our sample experiencing little change, except for Denmark, which saw a notable improvement of 11bp in the quarter and 31bp in the past 12 months (Heatmap 3).

      Download the EU banks NPL Heatmap report.
       

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