Les économies mondiale et européenne demeurent résilientes, même en tenant compte du ralentissement mondial modéré de 2025. Mais les risques pesant sur la reprise augmentent, soulignant des perspectives négatives à moyen terme.

The buzz around private credit since First Brands’ bankruptcy shows that investors need to be alert to the risks of engaging with this market. But it is also important not to exaggerate the credit risks or rate of growth of this market.

The global and European economies have been resilient in recent years even accounting for the modest global slowdown of 2025. But risks for the recovery are rising, underscoring a negative medium-run global macro and credit outlook.

Thursday 11 December 2025 - 15:00 (CET)

The cut in minimum Long-Term Funding Ratio (WFD) requirements from 40% to 20% recommended by Poland’s Financial Supervision Authority and the inclusion of capped retail deposits come alongside bold measures to strengthen the covered bond market.

Collections for first 10 months of 2025 are consistent with the negative trend that started in 2023. The split between recovery strategies, meanwhile, has been constant. October collections were in line with September’s, recording a slight decrease of 2%.

Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions continued its shift into positive territory in the third quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since early 2022.

Elevated geopolitical tensions, deeper political polarisation and persistent fiscal challenges outweigh the potential for stronger growth and instances of fiscal resilience, driving our overall negative sovereign credit outlook.

France’s intrinsic resilience underpins our four-notch rating differential with Italy, as similar funding conditions contrast with different budgetary dynamics and governance challenges, although rating convergence is now more likely in the years ahead.

Profitability is set to remain strong in 2026. Moderate loan growth, steady fee expansion and stable costs will support profits. But we are projecting an increase in provisions as default rates normalise, while economic and other risks remain high.