Italian banks face relatively low asset-quality risks from new US tariffs, although second-round effects could impact profitability.

European bank earnings will remain resilient in 2025, although we expect net interest margins to shrink. Given the low visibility around the impact of trade wars and geopolitics and the uncertain economic environment, risks remain skewed to the downside.

Higher mortgage rates have increased pressure on housing affordability. Longer fixed-rate mortgages periods limit the risk of shocks to the banking system and support the resilience of euro-area mortgage markets.

Competitive pressures have intensified but we still expect French banks’ profits to grow this year, supported by retail and corporate and investment banking. But profitability still lags EU peers, as large operating structures weigh on cost efficiency.

Wednesday, July 23rd 2025 - 3:00 PM (CEST)

Santander’s acquisition of TSB from Banco de Sabadell reflects a broader trend among EU banks of strengthening core markets via acquisitions, while for Sabadell, it represents a renewed focus on its domestic market.

The credit outlook for Spanish non-financial corporates is markedly favourable compared with the rest of Europe but the shallowness of domestic debt capital markets remains an obstacle for investment and growth at smaller companies, says Scope Ratings.

The methodology is now final following a call-for-comments period and will apply to all issuer and debt ratings of chemicals companies. The methodology might have a positive impact of one notch for one rated entity.

The methodology is now final and applies to all issuer and debt ratings of European retail and wholesale companies. The update refines Scope’s analytical approach and may have some negative impact on the current ratings of two issuers.

Les économies américaine et européenne connaîtront une croissance plus lente que prévue en 2025, contribuant à un ralentissement de la croissance économique globale. Les perspectives de l’économie mondiale restent orientées à la baisse, selon Scope Group.