Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions continued its shift into positive territory in the third quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since early 2022.

Elevated geopolitical tensions, deeper political polarisation and persistent fiscal challenges outweigh the potential for stronger growth and instances of fiscal resilience, driving our overall negative sovereign credit outlook.

France’s intrinsic resilience underpins our four-notch rating differential with Italy, as similar funding conditions contrast with different budgetary dynamics and governance challenges, although rating convergence is now more likely in the years ahead.

Profitability is set to remain strong in 2026. Moderate loan growth, steady fee expansion and stable costs will support profits. But we are projecting an increase in provisions as default rates normalise, while economic and other risks remain high.

Tuesday, November 25th 2025 - 3:00 PM (CET)

ABN AMRO’s announced acquisition of NIBC Bank carries low execution risk and is marginally supportive of the group’s strategic development and long-term credit profile.

Scope has published the annual update of its General Project Finance Rating Methodology. The changes are mainly editorial and aimed at providing further clarity and ensuring consistency with Scope’s other rating methodologies and rating definitions.

EU banks trail US peers in profitability amid rising compliance costs. So policymakers are pushing to simplify regulation. This could bring positive outcomes but the potential for missteps should not be overlooked.

Scope seeks market participants’ feedback on analytical developments

European banks have little choice but to accelerate investment to adapt to digital payments now that the European Central Bank (ECB) plans a pilot phase for the digital euro in 2027.