Announcements
Drinks
1/7/2024 Research EN
Structured Finance Activity Report: negative ratings drift continues to recede
The persistent negative rating drift in place between the fourth quarter of 2021 and third quarter of 2023 continues to recede. The upward shift is mainly due to reduced rating pressure on CRE/CMBS and secured NPL transactions.
27/6/2024 Research EN
Senior noteholder losses on Maroon unlikely to trigger domino effect in European CMBS
Losses to senior noteholders of the Elizabeth Finance 2018 CMBS resulting from the sale price of the properties securing the Maroon loan was an idiosyncratic outcome. It may not be a unique outlier but will not trigger wider market turbulence.
19/6/2024 Research EN
Global economic update: soft landing reinforces prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates
A sustained period of higher interest rates will present a challenge for many borrowers worldwide, as economies adapt to a new era of comparatively tight monetary policy amid a recovery in growth and enduring inflation.
19/6/2024 Research EN
Italian NPL collections: extrajudicial proceeds on seasoned transactions projected to fall sharply
Italian NPL collections of EUR 185m in April 2024 were 13% down month-on-month and below the average of April collections in the last two years. The most seasoned transactions show a significant decline in DPOs and notes sales.
29/5/2024 Research EN
Italian NPL collections: worst Q1 in three years
Q1 Italian NPL volumes were the lowest since 2021, 19% below the 2022/2023 average, while March 2024 collections were 36% below the average of the past two years even though there were more transactions (44) than in the two previous years (41 and 43).
21/5/2024 Research EN
Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations
With our negative CRE outlook persisting and the collateral values of CRE loans volatile, covenant breaches are also driving up NPLs. Regulators are seeking to address value volatility, but Pfandbriefe are shielded because of cover-pool eligibility caps.
13/5/2024 Research EN
German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern
EU supervisors remain concerned that banks’ real-estate exposure is vulnerable, and US contagion risk is an issue. But while German banks’ CRE portfolios are unlikely to have endangered the safe-haven status of Pfandbriefe, office exposure is a worry.