La révision de la perspective est motivée par la révision de la perspective associée à la notation AA- de la République française.

The Outlook revision is driven by the Outlook revision to Negative on the French Republic’s AA- ratings.

CADES’ ratings are aligned with the French sovereign ratings, driving the Outlook change.

Les notations de la CADES sont alignées sur celles de l'État français, ce qui explique le changement de perspective.

Poland’s structurally embedded spending increases and wider budget deficits highlight its fiscal vulnerabilities as institutional gridlock hampers any durable adjustment. Yet resilient growth and EU financial support are containing debt-servicing costs.

Almost EUR 1.9bn has been repaid from 13 securitised CRE loans in 2025. This is below EUR 7.1bn of issuance, but the decrease in delinquent loans from 37% in 2024 to 21% offers some comfort around the performance and fundamentals of underlying properties.

August collections fell 53% from July, a sharper decline than the 42% of the previous three years. August always suffers seasonal effects of Italy’s national holidays but August 2025 collections were the lowest since this report's inception in 2020.

Corporate NPL ratios remain high, particularly in Germany, France, Austria and Belgium, while geopolitical risks and trade tensions have rendered the economic outlook uncertain. Our baseline of a moderate deterioration in asset quality remains intact.

The latest government shutdown in the United States occurred as a result of policy disagreements between Republicans and Democrats on issues such as healthcare, but it reflects the country’s deepening political polarisation.

Following MPS’s acquisition of Mediobanca and BPER’s takeover of BPSO, we expect Banco BPM to play a more active role in Italy’s banking consolidation wave, which is being driven by financial as well as strategic and political factors.