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Scope downgrades Ukraine’s long-term issuer rating in foreign currency to SD
Rating action
Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today downgraded Ukraine’s long-term issuer rating in foreign currency to selective default (SD), from C. Similarly, Ukraine’s long-term senior unsecured debt-category rating in foreign currency has been downgraded to SD, from CC. No Outlook is assigned on long-term issuer ratings in selective default. The long-term issuer and senior-unsecured debt ratings in local currency have been affirmed at CCC, maintaining Stable Outlooks. Additionally, the Agency has affirmed short-term issuer ratings of Ukraine in local- and foreign-currency at S-4, maintaining Stable Outlooks.
The rated Eurobond instruments (as listed within the rating announcement) have been downgraded to C*, from CC. The C ratings of the rated Eurobonds are thereafter placed under review for downgrade. The long-term domestic debt instrument ratings of Ukraine in local- and in foreign-currency are affirmed at CCC, and Stable Outlooks are unchanged.
The downgrade of Ukraine’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt-category ratings in foreign currency to selective default reflects moratorium of Eurobond-debt payments in force since 1 August pending approval of a Eurobond restructuring agreement placed to bond holders on 9 August. A February-2026 Eurobond not rated by the Agency had a coupon payment due 1 August 2024 following conclusion of an earlier two-year debt-servicing suspension. This payment was bypassed as anticipated and not made whole within the 10-day grace concluding 10 August. As such – consistent with Scope’s credit rating announcement dated 10 May 2024, this failure to meet the payment obligation constitutes a selective default on long-term foreign-currency debt, as Ukraine has unilaterally suspended debt payment.
The downgrade of Eurobond instrument ratings to C reflects the high likelihood of near-term restructuring of and the anticipated losses for the rated Eurobond securities. Scope debt-instrument ratings are evaluated on the expected loss given default. The placement of the C Eurobond ratings under review for downgrade represents expectation of the securities near term entering a rating in default – furthermore considering the average to moderately-below-average losses that investors may incur during this debt restructuring, compared against historical averages observed in sovereign debt restructurings.
On 22 July 2024, the Government of Ukraine reached an agreement in principle on debt restructuring with the members of an Ad Hoc Creditor Committee representing holders of >20% of aggregate Eurobond principal. The Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation were launched on 9 August 2024 – opening the voting for bond holders. Bond holders have until 27 August to vote, with the Eurobond restructuring targeted for settlement 30 August 2024 or shortly thereafter.
The affirmation of the long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in local currency and of the long-term domestic-debt instrument ratings in local- and foreign-currency at CCC and maintenance of the Stable Outlook reflect exclusion of the domestic debt from external debt restructuring. Nevertheless, risks for the domestic debt remain given a challenging debt-sustainability outlook even following external commercial and bilateral-official debt restructuring.
The affirmation of the short-term issuer ratings at S-4 in local- and in foreign-currency represents exclusion of short-term debt by original maturity from the Eurobond restructuring. Outstanding Ukrainian short-term debt in foreign currency – such as outstanding domestic short-term debt in foreign currency (in dollar and in euro) – continues to be fully serviced.
Download the rating report.
Key rating drivers
Ukraine unilateral suspension of debt service following the conclusion of the two-year bilaterally-agreed debt-servicing suspension on 31 July 2024. The downgrade of long-term issuer ratings in foreign currency to selective default reflects the moratorium on Eurobond debt servicing since 1 August 2024.
Before the conclusion on 31 July 2024 of the 2022-24 debt-servicing suspension of Eurobond debt, Ukraine approved a law1 last month imposing a temporary ban of Eurobond-debt payments for effect from 1 August until as late as 1 October of this year until a Eurobond restructuring has been concluded and voted into force. The February-2026 Eurobond had a coupon payment due 1 August 2024. This payment was bypassed as anticipated – as Ukraine plans appropriately not to service legacy Eurobond securities so long as the Eurobond restructuring remains subject to completion and the moratorium signed last month is in effect. The payment was not made whole within the associated 10-day grace. This is considered a selective default through Ukraine having unilaterally suspended debt payment.
Agreement in principle for debt restructuring has been achieved and voting process for bond holders planned for conclusion late this month. The Eurobond restructuring is targeted to enter into effect 30 August 2024 (or shortly thereafter).
The Government of Ukraine announced on 22 July 20242 achievement of an agreement in principle with members of an Ad Hoc Creditor Committee representing holders of more than 20% of aggregate Eurobond principal. This agreement – achieved following the second round of concerted negotiations – outlines the restructuring terms of thirteen Ukrainian Eurobonds alongside of a single sovereign-guaranteed Eurobond of the roads-operator Ukravtodor.
The proposed agreement forgoes USD 8.67bn of claims and enables Ukraine to save USD 22.75bn in debt payments by 20333. The agreement was endorsed by the International Monetary Fund as compatible with debt-sustainability objectives outlined under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Group of (G-7) Creditors of Ukraine. It includes the exchange of the fourteen legacy Eurobonds for two new bond “parts” each having four bond series having lengthened maturities, principal reductions and varying grace periods followed by step-ups of coupon payments. The final two bond series of the second part (or Bond B) furthermore can add further principal by 2029 if Ukraine out-performs specific economic performance benchmarks (which could hypothetically reduce the aggregate write-off for consenting bond holders from 37% to as low as 25%). Ukraine has launched parallel debt-restructuring negotiations with the holders of sovereign-guaranteed Ukrenergo notes (due 2028), GDP-warrant securities (maturing 2041) and varying external commercial loans not rated by Scope but relevant for the long-term issuer rating in foreign currency.
The Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation for the Eurobond restructuring were launched 9 August 20244. Bond holders have until 27 August to vote. Those who agree by 23 August may see effectively just a 35.75% write-off after considering the (early) consent payment (and possibility of reduction to 23.75% if Ukrainian nominal output significantly out-performs). Non-consenting bondholders face a deeper write-off of 49.65% (if the restructuring gets voted through even absent their ‘yes’ votes that is). In net-present-value (NPV) terms, the NPV haircut is around 50% on the securities (excluding the contingent added principal on final two series of Bond B).
Results of the exchange offer are to be announced on 28 August or shortly thereafter with restructuring taking effect on or after Friday, 30 August. As such, Ukraine’s long-term ratings in foreign currency may be upgraded from the selective-default grade as early as 30 August. Shortly following this date, the maturity of the 1-September-2024 Eurobond as well as the due date of further Eurobond coupon payments are due by 1 September – incentivising settlement of the agreement ahead of this date. Nevertheless, even following upgrade of the long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from default, this rating is seen staying low as Ukraine negotiates restructuring of complementary external commercial claims separately over the forthcoming months.
The completion of the Eurobond restructuring requires a minimum of two-thirds of bond holders of the aggregate principal of each series of notes and at least half of the bonds of each series incorporated to approve the agreement. Under the sovereign-rating methodology, execution of the agreement is considered a “distressed debt exchange”.
The long-term debt-sustainability outlook remains challenging even after Eurobond restructuring, so long as war continues. There is expected to be a near-term improvement of the Agency’s long-run debt-sustainability outlook because of the Eurobond debt restructuring agreement. Nevertheless, the debt-sustainability outlook remains challenging.
Assuming the Eurobond debt restructuring currently being considered (shaving around 5.3pps from general government debt/GDP from a 37% write-off), debt-to-GDP is nevertheless forecast to rise to around 92.2% of GDP by end-2024 and remain slightly under 100% of GDP over the forecast horizon to 2029. This reflects a rise from an estimated 84.4% of GDP as of end-2023 and 48.9% as of 2021 before escalation of the war. Ongoing challenges reflect higher government deficits than forecast amid rises of military expenditure against an expanded conflict, weaker assumptions on economic recovery and inflation, and more-significant currency depreciation assumed this year. The government plans to raise and broaden war and excise taxes, while selling state assets and reducing spending.
Under the fourth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of Ukraine5, IMF pre-restructuring baseline scenarios forecast debt reaching 97.3% of GDP by end-2024 before – and more optimistically than Scope assumptions – declining to 73.5% by end-2033. The IMF assumes the war winds down by end-2024.
Under forecasting of the Agency – debt sustainability stays challenging even following completion of the Eurobond debt operation and scheduled restructuring of some of the legacy bilateral official debt by 2027. Under the third review of the EFF6, the IMF outlined goals for the Eurobond restructuring: i) public debt ought to reach 65% of GDP by 2033; ii) gross government financing needs should average 8% of GDP during the “post-programme” period (2028–33); and iii) as complementary objectives, public debt should be reduced to 82% of GDP by 2028 and achieve debt-service flow relief on external debt obligations of 1–1.8% of GDP a year. Based on such objectives, additional restructuring of Eurobond debt is not ruled out under any scenario of extended conflict.
Challenges for the post-restructuring ratings of external commercial debt reflect furthermore most Ukrainian debt service remaining on domestic debt instruments, which are not up for re-profiling so long as the war continues under an intense phase. The majority of remaining debt service and about half of the aggregate principal of Ukrainian debt is furthermore today linked to multi-lateral loans, where multi-lateral institutions do not participate under debt relief. Resultantly, the 15% of Ukrainian debt (as of end-2023) and declining segment representing Eurobond securities may remain sub-ordinated even following completion of the restructuring.
Domestic-debt ratings helped by resilient domestic financial system and foreseen remaining excluded from debt restructuring. The banking system has been so far resilient, supporting the domestic-debt ratings especially.
Although capital adequacy (tier 1 capital ratio) has recently declined to 12.0% of risk-weighted assets by February 2024, from 14.9% as of October-2023 highs, and non-performing loans are elevated, risks around dollarisation (33% of banking-system deposits and 25% of loans being denominated in foreign currency as of June of this year) and profitability (above pre-invasion levels) have each eased to a degree from 2022 peaks.
The domestic debt has been appropriately excluded from debt restructuring. The domestic sector is fundamental for filling a remaining financing gap for war, reconstruction and humanitarian spending requirements – especially given slowdown of international financing, and this dependence on the domestic banks (and especially state-owned banks) is seen as important not to jeopardise. This is furthermore as Ukraine wants to prudently sustain the elimination of monetary financing of the sovereign since January 2023 – placing greater pressure on the domestic banking system as purchasers since then to fund war and reconstruction in hryvnia. The significantly-increased holdings of the central bank of the domestic government debt (holding around 40% of hryvnia debt currently) since the war escalated furthermore complicates any contemplation around domestic bond restructuring.
Nevertheless, medium- to long-run, given the challenging debt-sustainability outlook, there remain relevant vulnerabilities for the domestic debt – captured by the CCC ratings. Near-term funding stresses have eased moderately following approval of USD 61bn of American financing of Ukraine, although disbursements of said funds remain slow. The EU last week disbursed a EUR 4.2bn tranche from a separate EUR 50bn facility for Ukraine.7
*NB. Scope debt-instrument ratings are evaluated on loss-given-default bases, while issuer and debt-category ratings are evaluated on the probability of default.
Outlook and rating sensitivities
There is no Outlook assigned on the foreign-currency issuer rating at the selective-default grade.
The rated Eurobond instruments are expected to enter a rating in default near term.
The upside scenario for the long-term issuer rating in foreign currency is:
-
The Eurobond restructuring is successfully concluded and enters into effect and the Eurobond-payment moratorium is lifted.
The Stable Outlook on the domestic debt ratings represents the consideration that risks for the ratings are balanced over the forthcoming 12 to 18 months.
Upside scenarios for the domestic debt ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):
-
Security risks were to be significantly reduced;
-
The government’s debt-sustainability outlook were to meaningfully improve; and/or
- Banking-system risks ease.
The downside scenario for the domestic debt ratings and Outlooks is if:
- The likelihood were to increase of the re-profiling of the domestic debt, such as under a scenario of the war worsening for Ukraine and/or the debt-sustainability outlook remaining impaired even following comprehensive external liability restructuring.
Sovereign Quantitative Model (SQM) and Qualitative Scorecard (QS)
Scope’s SQM, which assesses core sovereign credit fundamentals, signals a first indicative credit rating of ‘b+’ for Ukraine. Under Scope’s sovereign methodology, the indicative rating receives: 1) no positive adjustment from the methodological reserve-currency adjustment; and 2) a three-notch negative adjustment from the methodological political-risk quantitative adjustment, reflecting the presence of war on sovereign territory. On this basis, a final SQM quantitative rating of ‘ccc’ is reviewed by the analyst-driven Qualitative Scorecard (QS) and can be changed by up to three notches up or down depending on the size of qualitative credit strengths or weaknesses of the sovereign compared against those of an SQM-assigned peer group of sovereign states.
Scope identified the following QS relative credit strength of Ukraine: i) monetary policy framework; ii) debt profile and market access; iii) current account resilience; iv) financial sector oversight and governance; and v) financial imbalances. Conversely, the following relative credit weaknesses have been identified under the QS: i) macro-economic stability and sustainability; ii) long-term debt trajectory; iii) environmental factors; iv) social factors; and v) governance factors. On the aggregate, the QS generates no net adjustment for the final indicative credit rating. So, aggregate adjustments signal a long-term issuer credit rating in local currency of CCC for Ukraine.
A final three-notch negative adjustment is applied for Ukraine’s long-term issuer rating in foreign currency by additional considerations, reflecting two rating notches for an expectation of completion of Eurobond debt restructuring over the forthcoming weeks. Finally, one rating notch represents selective default on long-term debt denominated in foreign currency – specifically adoption of the debt moratorium since 1 August 2024 on the servicing of Eurobond securities and associated bypassed payment on the February-2026 Eurobond since 1 August 2024. This results in a final SD long-term foreign-currency issuer rating for the borrower.
A rating committee has discussed and confirmed these results.
Environment, social and governance (ESG) factors
Scope explicitly factors in ESG issues in its ratings process vis-à-vis the sovereign-rating methodology’s stand-alone ESG sovereign-risk pillar, which holds a significant 25% weighting under the quantitative model (SQM) and 20% weight under the methodology’s qualitative overlay (QS).
With respect to environmental risks – Ukraine scores poorly under the SQM on carbon emissions per unit of GDP (a proxy variable for “transition costs” in achieving a greener economic model long run) although Ukraine scores comparatively well on greenhouse gas emissions per capita. Ukraine scores near a global median on the degree of exposure and vulnerability to natural-disaster risk – as measured by the ND-GAIN index. The sovereign’s marks are furthermore very strong under the SQM regarding the ecological footprint of consumption compared against the country’s available biocapacity. Under the methodology, environmental objectives and challenges are furthermore considered by the analyst under the QS via an assessment of ‘weak’ for Ukraine on the ‘environmental factors’ QS sub-category compared against Ukraine’s sovereign peer group. Ukraine ranked an improved 41st on the 2024 Environmental Performance Index from 180 countries.8 Ukraine plans to cut emissions while growing the economy, reducing poverty and simultaneously combatting aggression from neighbouring Russia – aiming to curtail greenhouse gas emissions from 62% under 1990 levels as of 2019 to 65% below 1990 levels by 2030, thereafter achieving full climate neutrality not later than 2060. However, the war is triggering sizeable, long-lasting environmental damage and an increase of the carbon footprint because of the use of weapons, contributing to elevating greenhouse gas emissions.
Socially-related credit factors are likewise captured by the SQM and the QS qualitative overlay. Under the SQM, Ukraine receives a middle-of-the-road score on income inequality (as captured by the ratio of the income share of the bottom 50% of the population), moderate marks on labour-force participation, and relatively weak scoring with respect to the old-age dependency ratio. In addition, the comparatively modest GDP per capita as a lower-middle-income economy is captured by the SQM. A long-run decline of the working-age population undermines economic growth potential (estimated at 2.5% a year). Under the assessment of Ukraine’s ‘social factors’ QS analytical category, Scope evaluates this qualitative analytical category as ‘weak’ on balance compared against Ukraine’s sovereign peers.
Finally, under governance-related factors captured by the SQM, Ukraine scores under the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs) represent a credit-rating constraint. Nevertheless, between 2015 and 2021, given meaningful institutional reforms, percentile ranks had improved across WGI categories – although scores except on control of corruption have declined since 2022 compared against 2021 due to effects of the Russian full-scale invasion. This WGI evaluation includes the three-notch downside adjustment for the SQM indicative rating based on the political-stability WGI category. In a separate assessment of ‘governance factors’ under the QS, Scope evaluates this qualitative analytical category as ‘weak’ against ‘ccc’ indicative sovereign peers of Ukraine.
Rated Eurobond securities downgraded to C:
ISIN | Instrument | Coupon | Maturity
XS1303925041 and US903724AR33 | USD 1.34bn 7.75% notes | 7.75% | Sep-26
XS1303925470 and US903724AS16 | USD 1.33bn 7.75% notes | 7.75% | Sep-27
XS2015264778 and XS2015265072 | EUR 1bn 6.75% notes | 6.75% | Jun-28
XS1303926528 and US903724AT98 | USD 1.32bn 7.75% notes | 7.75% | Sep-28
XS1303927179 and US903724AU61 | USD 1.31bn 7.75% notes | 7.75% | Sep-29
XS1902171757 and US903724BV36 | USD 1.6bn 9.75% notes | 9.75% | Nov-30
XS2010028699 and US90372UAR59 | USD 1.75bn 6.876% notes | 6.876% | May-31
XS2010033343 and XS2010033186 | EUR 1.25bn 4.375% notes | 4.375% | Jan-32
XS2010030836 and US903724BY74 | USD 2.6bn 7.253% notes | 7.253% | Mar-35
Rating committee
The main points discussed by the rating committee were: i) ban on Eurobond-debt payments from 1 August and missed payment on the February-2026 Eurobond; ii) Eurobond debt-exchange agreement and the relevant restructuring timetable; iii) war and debt-sustainability outlooks; iv) short-term ratings; v) future ratings migration; and vi) sovereign peers considerations.
Rating driver references
1. Government of Ukraine: Statement of the Ministry of Finance on the adopted draft Law which enables the Government to suspend payments under state and state-guaranteed external debt instruments
2. Ukraine, represented by the Minister of Finance of Ukraine: Ukraine reaches agreement with bondholders (on London Stock Exchange) – 22 July 2024
3. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine: Ukraine Announces Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation for Existing Eurobonds – 9 August 2024
4. Ukraine, represented by the Minister of Finance of Ukraine: Launch of Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation (on London Stock Exchange) – 9 August 2024
5. International Monetary Fund: Ukraine – Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
6. International Monetary Fund: Ukraine – Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
7. Council of the European Union: Council gives green light to first payment of nearly €4.2 billion under the Ukraine Facility
8. Yale University: 2024 Environmental Performance Index
Methodology
The methodology used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks, (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 29 January 2024), is available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The model used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks is (Sovereign Quantitative Model Version 3.0), available in Scope Ratings’ list of models, published under https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on https://www.scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at https://www.scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.
Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Credit Ratings were not requested by the Rated Entity or its Related Third Parties. The Credit Rating process was conducted:
With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation YES
With access to internal documents NO
With access to management YES
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain and the Rated Entity.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks were not amended before being issued.
Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and/or Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Dennis Shen, Senior Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Dr Giacomo Barisone, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 28 January 2022. The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were last updated on 10 May 2024.
As a "sovereign rating" (as defined in EU Credit Rating Agency (CRA) Regulation 1060/2009 "EU CRA Regulation"), the ratings of Ukraine are subject to certain publication restrictions set out in Art. 8a of the EU CRA Regulation, including publication in accordance with a pre-established calendar (see "Publication Calendar 2024: Sovereign, Sub-Sovereign and Supranational Ratings" published on 30 April 2024 on www.scoperatings.com). Under the EU CRA Regulation, deviations from the announced calendar are allowed only in limited circumstances and must be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasons for deviation. In this case, the deviation was due to selective default on long-term debt in foreign currency following a debt-servicing moratorium since 1 August 2024 and conclusion of an associated grace of the February-2026 Eurobond – an event that Scope has highlighted previously would see a rating change. In addition, the Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation under Eurobond restructuring were presented to bond holders on 9 August 2024 for voting over the coming weeks. This event has prompted publication of this credit-rating action on a date deviating from previously-scheduled release dates per Scope’s sovereign release calendar.
Potential conflicts
See www.scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.
Conditions of use/exclusion of liability
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