Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope publicly announces the completion of each monitoring review on its website.

Scope completed the monitoring review on the Kingdom of Morocco (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: BB+ and Stable Outlook; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-3 and Stable Outlook) on 13 January 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on www.scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

Morocco’s BB+ long-term credit ratings are supported by: i) sound and credible economic institutions, including enhanced monetary and budgetary governance frameworks, supporting macro-economic stability and effective policy making; ii) good market access and strong funding flexibility, underpinned by the access to domestic and international capital markets as well as official-sector financing, alongside a favourable debt structure; and iii) structural reforms, anticipated to be sustained under the envisioned New Development Model.

Conversely, credit challenges associate with: i) the moderate levels of wealth and modest economic diversification; ii) elevated public debt coupled with rising spending pressures and elevated contingent liabilities for the sovereign; and iii) meaningful social risks underpinned by poor employment outturns and elevated inequalities.

Economic growth decelerated to an estimated 2.5% last year due to the effects of adverse weather conditions on agricultural-sector output. Even so, non-agricultural sectors performed well, reflecting strong tourism- and manufacturing-sector activities, driven by resilient foreign demand. Scope anticipates growth to recover to 4.4% this year before 3.2% in 2026, underpinned by robust domestic demand, amid growing household incomes, expanding welfare protection programmes and sustained foreign direct investment inflows.

Morocco’s budget deficit is estimated to have declined moderately to 4.0% of GDP last year (down 0.4pps from the previous year), as the positive effects of strong revenue growth have been largely offset by the pressures from public-sector wages and social transfers. The general government deficit is seen narrowing gradually over the forthcoming years, reaching 3.4% of GDP by 2026. Ongoing reform momentum ought to support budgetary consolidation, notably the phasing out of fuel subsidies and the streamlining of the value-added tax framework, although there are risks that completion of the social protection reform results in some slippage on spending. The general government debt ratio is forecast declining to around 66.8% by end-2026, from an estimate of 68.5% at the end of last year.

The Stable Outlook represents the opinion that risks for the ratings are balanced.

The long-term ratings/Outlooks could be upgraded if, individually or collectively, Morocco’s: i) fiscal outlook were to improve, as an example due to a widening of the tax base and the elimination of subsidies bringing about budgetary consolidation; ii) external-sector resilience improves substantially, for instance through tangible progress in the transition towards a flexible exchange rate regime; and/or iii) economic outlook improved, as an example due to structural reforms enhancing trend growth.

Conversely, the long-term ratings/Outlooks could be downgraded if, individually or collectively, Morocco’s: i) public finances weakened, for instance due to a rising interest-payment burden, overly loose fiscal policies or the crystallisation of contingent liabilities; ii) external position worsened, as an example due to weakening of official-reserves stocks or balance-of-payment pressures; and/or iii) social risks and/or geopolitical tensions escalated, affecting policy credibility or impacting political and/or macro-economic stability.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 29 January 2024) is available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst Dennis Shen, Senior Director

© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin.