Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for the Swiss Confederation (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: AAA/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-1+/Stable) on 2 September 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

Switzerland’s AAA ratings are underpinned by: i) its wealthy and well-diversified economy, highly skilled labour force and institutional strengths, including a stable, consensus-oriented and effective policy framework, which underpin a high degree of economic resilience; ii) strong fiscal fundamentals, driven by a strong commitment to longer-term debt sustainability and stringent, constitutionally-anchored budgetary rules, in addition to favourable financing conditions; and iii) a significant net external asset position and the safe-haven status of the Swiss franc.

Challenges include: i) a highly concentrated and very large banking sector in relation to GDP, posing potential contingent liability risks to public finances; ii) imbalances in the real estate market with elevated vulnerabilities in the residential real estate market that might further increase in the current interest rate environment, posing a moderate risk of market correction, and iii) uncertainties related to the evolving US-Swiss trade arrangement, with US tariffs on Swiss goods currently set at 39%, which, if sustained, would impact competitiveness and economic growth.

These risks are mitigated by the significant wealth of Swiss households, as well as by the effective financial policy making, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority’s prudent supervisory framework and continuous work on improving financial stability regulation. In addition, Scope expects the Swiss authorities to find a more favourable trade agreement with the US administration over the coming months.

Following economic growth of 1.4% in 2024 (not adjusted for sports events), Scope expects growth to remain below its long-term average and reach 0.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, dampened by higher tariff rates and continued uncertainty. In May, inflation turned negative for the first time since the Covid-pandemic, leading the SNB to cut interest rates to zero in June. Scope expects inflation to remain comparatively low but within the target range with 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, in line with SNB projections assuming an unchanged 0.0% policy rate.

Finally, Scope expects public finances to remain robust, with a projected fiscal surplus of 0.14% on average over 2025-2030. Despite latest adjustments to the relief package 27, expected savings still amount to almost CHF 2.5bn in 2027 and CHF 3bn in 2028, supporting a structurally balanced budget. As a result, Scope projects general government debt-to-GDP to gradually decline to 32% by 2030 from 38% in 2024.

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s assessment that risks to the ratings are balanced.

Downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. financial stability risks materialised with significant negative implications for the economic growth and public finance outlook; and/or
    
2. the economic outlook worsened materially.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 27 January 2025) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Elena Klare, Analyst
 
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