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Rating action

Scope has today downgraded the issuer rating of closed-end investment company UAB Atsinaujinančios Energetikos Investicijos (hereafter referred to as ‘AEI’) to C from B-. Scope has also downgraded the senior unsecured debt rating to CC from B. Both ratings remain under review for a developing outcome.

The issuer rating has been downgraded and maintained under review for a developing outcome, reflecting AEI’s exceptionally weak liquidity position as its ongoing initiatives to refinance the bond maturing in December 2025 (ISIN LT0000405938, hereafter also referred as ‘EUR 2021/2025 bond’) may prove insufficient to meet its obligations. Still, there are some chances that the company will receive sufficient liquidity from a multi-fold package of fundraising initiatives that would ensure the timely repayment of the bond’s outstanding volume.

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

On 03 November 2025, AEI announced that it had completed a partial exchange tender offer for its EUR 2021/2025 bond, with investors replacing their positions with EUR 2025/2026 or EUR 2025/2027 bonds. After the completion of abovementioned transaction, the bonds maturing in December 2025 remained with an outstanding amount of EUR 44.5m.

On the same date, AEI also announced that it had finished the process regarding two other issuances aimed at refinancing the EUR 2021/2025 bond, as follows:

• Proceeds of EUR 0.4m from the second tranche of the EUR 2025/2027 bond (out of the EUR 30m issued)
   
• Proceeds of EUR 14.3m from the first tranche of the EUR 2025/2026 bond (out of the EUR 25m issued).

This rating action directly reflects Scope’s assessment that the company’s recent refinancing operations are insufficient to fully address the obligations of AEI’s bond maturing on 14 December 2025 (plus a five day grace period). The rating action takes into account the limited amounts raised in the last refinancing round, which fall significantly short of both the intended issuance volume and the total outstanding balance of the EUR 2021/2025 bond. The company’s cash balance of about EUR 8.8m as of Q3 2025 and the proceeds from the above-mentioned new debt placements are not sufficient for a full refinancing. Furthermore, Scope views the remaining time until the EUR 2021/2025 bond’s maturity as particularly constrained, further limiting AEI’s ability to secure alternative funding sources for a comprehensive refinancing.

While AEI has envisaged additional options to raise funds through various channels (e.g. asset disposals that have already been concluded, further capital market and/or bank financing, and private placements with investors), AEI is strongly dependent on the timely execution of these options with no negative surprises. There is significant uncertainty surrounding the timing and volume of these measures, which makes it difficult to determine whether there will be sufficient funds to repay the outstanding debt in full by December 2025. This significantly increases the risk of default should AEI’s fundraising activities prove unsuccessful or insufficient.

As such, the rating action is entirely driven by the assessment of the liquidity profile and overall financial risk profile.

Business risk profile: B (unchanged). AEI’s business risk profile remains unchanged since Scope’s June 2025 Rating Action.

Financial risk profile: C (revised from CCC). AEI’s credit profile deterioration is driven by the inadequate liquidity position, signalling the limited time until the maturity date of the EUR 2021/2025 bond approaches.

Liquidity: inadequate (-4 notches, revised from -2 notches). Scope applies a negative 4-notch adjustment within the financial risk profile to reflect the very high refinancing risk associated with the bond maturing in December 2025, driven by the AEI’s inability thus far to raise sufficient funds for full refinancing.

Scope views AEI’s liquidity concerns as heightened following the capital market transactions conducted in November 2025 that raised funds to partially refinance the EUR 2021/2025 bond. Although approximately one month remains until the maturity date, during which AEI could pursue alternative funding sources, Scope considers a full successful refinancing highly uncertain due to the limited timeframe and significant under-subscription of the recently placed bond tranches.

Supplementary rating drivers: credit-neutral (unchanged). Supplementary rating drivers have no impact on the rating.

Under review for a developing outcome

The under-review status for a developing outcome reflects the potential rating development over the next few weeks during the company’s ongoing refinancing efforts, which may lead to a Default situation but could also result in a full and timely refinancing. While Scope acknowledges that AEI still has time to find alternative options to fund the remaining portion of the 2021/2025 bond, it sees the successful full refinancing severely at risk due to the high execution risk. Scope will closely monitor developments relating to the debt refinancing and resolve the under-review status as soon as sufficient transparency regarding the success of the ongoing refinancing phase has been achieved.

The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

1. Successful execution of the refinancing plan, providing overall full coverage of upcoming debt maturities in December 2025.

The downside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

1. Failure to obtain necessary funding to refinance debt maturities in December 2025.

Debt rating

Scope has downgraded the senior unsecured debt rating to CC from B, following the downgrade on the underlying issuer rating. The debt rating remains one notch above the issuer rating reflecting Scope’s ‘above average’ recovery expectation in a hypothetical default scenario in December 2025. This is underpinned by the company’s asset base and reported total asset value which is considerably higher than the total debt exposure and which provide an above average recovery even in the case of heavy discounts on valuations in the case of a liquidation of the fund.

In a liquidation scenario, project debt (bank loans) to the SPVs owned by portfolio companies and to which AEI has provided shareholder loans will be recovered first. Remaining proceeds from the disposal of operational and unfinished renewable energy power plants could be used to redeem the shareholder loans, which would support the recovery of senior unsecured debt at holding company level.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

All of AEI’s investments are channelled into portfolio companies that operate renewable energy assets in Lithuania and Poland, markets which are chronically short of electricity generation capacities and have a significant annual electricity generation deficit (net importers). Such a portfolio exposure has attracted money flows with regards to green bond funding or the direct equity contributions that supported AEI’s growth and investment ambitions.

All rating actions and rated entities

UAB Atsinaujinančios Energetikos Investicijos

Issuer rating: C/Under review for a developing outcome, downgrade

Senior unsecured debt rating: CC/Under review for a developing outcome, downgrade

*All credit metrics refer to Scope-adjusted figures.

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. Scope Ratings performed its standard cash flow forecasting for the company.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings, (General Corporate Rating Methodology, 14 February 2025; Investment Holding Companies Rating Methodology, 16 May 2025), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings' internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Miguel Pinto, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Sebastian Zank, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 20 June 2022. The Credit Ratings were last updated on 18 June 2025.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use/exclusion of liability
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