The latest information on the rating, including rating reports and related methodologies, is available on this LINK.

Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (‘Scope’) has affirmed the BBB- issuer rating on Hungarian oil and gas incumbent MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyrt. (MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas plc or MOL) and has revised the Outlook to Stable from Positive. The S-2 short-term debt rating and BBB- senior unsecured debt rating have been affirmed.

The change in Outlook to Stable from Positive reflects Scope’s view that leverage is likely to increase driven by decreasing commodities price and the impact of the fire at the Danube refinery in October 2025 but also reflects Scope’s expectation of an unchanged exposure to potential energy supply disruptions from Russia.

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

Business risk profile: BB+ (unchanged). MOL’s business risk profile reflects its integrated business model, its competitive downstream portfolio and exposure to the regulated gas transportation business (midstream). Challenges include its dominant exposure to volatile energy prices, refining and petrochemical margins, small upstream operations, moderate geographical diversification, significant dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies, potential changes in environmental regulation and demand patterns (ESG: credit-negative environmental and social risk factors), ongoing regulatory interventions as well as some uncertainty regarding its ownership of the oil and gas company INA-Industrija nafte d.d.

MOL is working on the diversification of oil supplies and made some progress in 2025. However, the pace of infrastructure upgrades remains slow, and the company now expects them to be completed in 2026. Scope also notes that, in August 2025, MOL concluded an oil trading agreement with Kazakhstan's national oil company, KazMunayGas (KMG), and strengthens the security supply for the Central and Eastern European region. The European Union has expressed some worries about the supply security in case of lower exposure to Russia.

MOL’s profitability remains solid overall. Despite further moderation in energy prices and still challenging petrochemical markets, the overall Scope-adjusted EBITDA margin* is likely to benefit from a gradual reversal of regulatory interventions and Scope expects it to stabilise around 12%.

Financial risk profile: BBB+ (unchanged). MOL’s financial risk profile remains supported by strong leverage and very strong interest cover and is constrained by a moderate cash flow cover.

Due to moderating commodity prices and margins, ongoing regulatory intervention, high income tax, dividend payments and the lower expected production following the fire at the Danube refinery, MOL’s leverage as measured by debt/EBITDA is likely to remain close to 2x in the next couple of years mitigated by a relatively solid cash generation. Scope expects the interest cover to remain at a comfortable level of well above 10x, mainly due to a moderate level of interest-bearing debt with largely fixed interest rates. Free operating cash flow/debt, additionally affected by significant investment spending and working capital swings, is likely to remain below 10%, which provides limited room for deleveraging.

Liquidity: adequate (unchanged). MOL’s liquidity remains adequate supported by available cash and cash equivalents of around HUF 355bn as of June 2025, committed undrawn credit lines of around HUF 1tn (maturing over 2026-2028) and positive free operating cash flow, except in 2027.

Supplementary rating drivers: credit-neutral (unchanged). Scope has made no rating adjustments related to financial policy, governance and structure, parent support, or peer group considerations.

One or more key drivers of the credit rating action are considered an ESG factor.

Outlook and rating sensitivities

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s expectation of robust operating performance despite some moderation in commodity prices, which are still seen as supportive to keeping debt/EBITDA within a range of 1.5x to 2.0x over the next few years. The Outlook also reflects MOL's status-quo exposure to energy supply disruptions from Russia.

The upside scenarios for the ratings and Outlook are (collectively):

1. Improving credit metrics, e.g. debt/EBITDA below 1.5x on a sustained basis
    
2. Decreasing vulnerability to energy supply cuts from Russia (remote)

The downside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

1. Deterioration in credit metrics, e.g. debt/EBITDA above 2.5x on a sustained basis

Debt ratings

The rated debt is issued by MOL Nyrt. and its financing subsidiary MOL Group Finance Zrt. Debt issued by the financing subsidiary benefits from an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee by MOL Nyrt.

Senior unsecured debt is rated BBB-, the same level as the issuer rating.

The short-term debt rating of S-2 reflects MOL’s underlying issuer rating of BBB-/Stable and is backed by the company’s solid short-term liquidity cover and conservative liquidity management. The rating is further supported by well-established banking relationships.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

MOL’s operations are exposed to the risk of adverse changes in environmental regulation (e.g. the European Green Deal) and demand patterns (e.g. a growing number of electric cars and reduced plastic use) for its main products, such as crude oil, natural gas and fuels. The company started addressing these issues by transitioning from fuels to chemicals and from fuel retailing to consumer goods and mobility services, as outlined in its long-term strategy in October 2016.

In November 2025, MOL presented an updated annual management guidance, which provided a more refined view on key directions, increased focus on sustainability and circular economy while addressing energy supply security concerns. Specifically, MOL plans to reduce group-level emissions (scope 1 and 2) by 25% by 2030 compared to 2019 and aspires to achieve emission neutrality by 2050 (scope 1, 2 and 3). The company wants to significantly increase its EU taxonomy-aligned investments and focus on waste integration and utilisation; recycling; carbon capture, utilisation and storage; advanced biofuels; and potentially hydrogen-related opportunities. MOL plans to spend USD 5bn (or more than 40% of total capex) on strategic/transformational projects over the next six years, including supply security, petchemisation and low carbon initiatives. As part of this strategy, MOL is developing the waste management business and started reporting it as a separate segment from 2024 onwards. We note, however, that the relevant projects could only be meaningful in the credit rating assessment once relevant cash flows reach a critical size, which is likely only in the medium or long term.

All rating actions and rated entities

MOL Nyrt

Issuer rating: BBB-/Stable, Outlook change

Short-term debt rating: S-2, affirmation

Senior unsecured debt rating: BBB-, affirmation

MOL Group Finance Zrt

Issuer rating: BBB-/Stable, Outlook change

Short-term debt rating: S-2, affirmation

Senior unsecured debt rating: BBB-, affirmation

*All credit metrics refer to Scope-adjusted figures.

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. Scope Ratings performed its standard cash flow forecasting for the company.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlook, (General Corporate Rating Methodology, 14 February 2025; Oil and Gas Rating Methodology, 19 December 2024), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings' internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Anne Grammatico, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Sebastian Zank, Managing Director
The MOL's Nyrt. Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 3 May 2021. The Credit Ratings/Outlook were last updated on 14 March 2024.
The MOL's Group Finance Zrt. Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 20 March 2023. The Credit Ratings/Outlook were last updated on 14 March 2024.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use/exclusion of liability
© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin. Public Ratings are generally accessible to the public. Subscription Ratings and Private Ratings are confidential and may not be shared with any unauthorised third party.