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Rating action

Scope has today affirmed the issuer rating of closed-end investment company UAB Atsinaujinančios Energetikos Investicijos (hereafter referred to as ‘AEI’) at C. Scope has also affirmed the senior unsecured debt rating at CC. Both ratings remain under review for a developing outcome.

The rating affirmation and continued under-review status for a developing outcome, reflect AEI’s very weak liquidity position as its ongoing initiatives to refinance the bond maturing in December 2025 (ISIN LT0000405938, hereafter also referred as ‘EUR 2021/2025 bond’) may prove insufficient to meet its obligations. Nevertheless, there remains a possibility that the company will obtain approval for its proposed restructuring proposal for the EUR 2021/2025 bond and thereby avoid a potential default.

The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

On 14 November 2025, AEI announced a proposal to the EUR 2021/2025 bond’s noteholders regarding new refinancing initiatives of the bonds maturing in December 2025. The proposal consists of the following:

1. Prolongation the original maturity date from 14 December 2025 to 15 June 2026.
    
2. Increase of the interest rate from 5.00% to 8.50% per annum, as from 15 December 2025 and until the new maturity date of 15 June 2026.
    
3. Introduction of a call option for AEI to redeem part or all of the notes on any day before the new maturity date at 100% of the nominal value, plus accrued interest.

Moreover, AEI stated that the outstanding balance on the EUR 2021/2025 bond was EUR 44.8m and that the company had secured roughly EUR 22m which would be used to partially repay the outstanding notes. Furthermore, AEI informed the noteholders that it intends to pay all accrued interest on 15 December 2025, and pro-rata redeem all holders 50% of the nominal value of the notes.

This rating action reflects Scope’s assessment of AEI’s bond restructuring proposal, whose execution would unlikely constitute a Selective Default under Scope’s Credit Rating Definitions. While Scope views the proposed refinancing as a measure of forced debt restructuring to avoid likely default, AEI’s proposal does not entail less favourable terms or a loss of value relative to the original conditions of the EUR 2021/2025 bond. Should noteholder approval be secured, this could provide some – but only temporary relief on the company’s liquidity – and avert default in the very short term. However, it remains uncertain whether all necessary noteholder consents will be obtained, leaving a significant default risk if the company’s initiative proves unsuccessful or insufficient.

Business risk profile: B (unchanged). AEI’s business risk profile remains unchanged since Scope’s June 2025 Rating Action.

Financial risk profile: C (unchanged). AEI’s exceptionally weak credit profile is driven by the inadequate liquidity position, signalling the limited time until the maturity date of the EUR 2021/2025 bond approaches.

Liquidity: inadequate (-4 notches, unchanged). Scope applies a negative four-notch adjustment within the financial risk profile to reflect the very high refinancing risk associated with the bond maturing in December 2025, driven by AEI’s inability thus far to raise sufficient funds for full refinancing and requirement for a bond restructuring.

Supplementary rating drivers: credit-neutral (unchanged). Supplementary rating drivers have no impact on the rating. However, Scope highlights inconsistencies in AEI’s published information regarding the EUR 2021/2025 bond and its refinancing plans. Additionally, Scope views negatively AEI’s strategy of resorting to last-minute refinancing attempts for the debts maturing in December 2025, rather than implementing more timely and transparent alternatives.

Under review for a developing outcome

The under-review status for a developing outcome reflects the potential rating development over the next few weeks during the Company’s ongoing refinancing efforts, which may lead to a Default situation but could also result in a full and timely refinancing. While Scope acknowledges that AEI’s latest proposal to noteholders, if fully approved, could provide a viable option to refinance the remaining portion of the 2021/2025 bond, it sees the successful full refinancing severely at risk due to the high execution risk. Scope will closely monitor developments relating to the debt refinancing and resolve the under-review status as soon as sufficient transparency regarding the success of the ongoing refinancing phase has been achieved.

The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

• Successful execution of the restructuring plan and other refinancing measures.

The downside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:

• Failure to execute the refinancing plan for the debt maturing in December 2025.

Debt rating

Scope has affirmed the senior unsecured debt rating at CC, following the affirmation on the underlying issuer rating. The debt rating remains one notch above the issuer rating reflecting Scope’s ‘above average’ recovery expectation in a hypothetical default scenario in December 2025. This is underpinned by the company’s asset base and reported total asset value which is considerably higher than the total debt exposure and which provide an above average recovery even in the case of heavy discounts on valuations in the case of a liquidation of the fund.

In a liquidation scenario, project debt (bank loans) to the SPVs owned by portfolio companies and to which AEI has provided shareholder loans will be recovered first. Remaining proceeds from the disposal of operational and unfinished renewable energy power plants could be used to redeem the shareholder loans, which would support the recovery of senior unsecured debt at holding company level.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

All of AEI’s investments are channelled into portfolio companies that operate renewable energy assets in Lithuania and Poland, markets which are chronically short of electricity generation capacities and have a significant annual electricity generation deficit (net importers). Such a portfolio exposure has attracted money flows with regards to green bond funding or the direct equity contributions that supported AEI’s growth and investment ambitions.

All rating actions and rated entities

UAB Atsinaujinančios Energetikos Investicijos

Issuer rating: C/Under review for a developing outcome, affirmation

Senior unsecured debt rating: CC/Under review for a developing outcome, affirmation

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. Scope Ratings performed its standard cash flow forecasting for the company.

Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlook, (Investment Holding Companies Rating Methodology, 16 May 2025; General Corporate Rating Methodology, 14 February 2025), are available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participate in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings' internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting the Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Miguel Pinto, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Sebastian Zank, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 20 June 2022. The Credit Ratings/Outlook were last updated on 14 November 2025.

Potential conflicts
See www.scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use/exclusion of liability
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