Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today assigned an issuer rating of BBB+ to National Bank of Greece (NBG), with Stable outlook. Scope has also assigned ratings to NBG’s senior unsecured and Tier 2 debt. The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.

Key rating drivers

Business model assessment: Consistent (High). The issuer rating is anchored by the Consistent (High) business model assessment. NBG is one of the four systemic banks in Greece, with total assets of EUR 77bn as of September 2025. It benefits from a strong market position, particularly in retail, which gives it access to a large and inexpensive deposit base.

In line with its commercial banking focus, the group derives around 80% of its revenues from net interest income, although it has taken steps to increase revenues from fee-generating operations. Reflecting the structure of the Greek banking market, the loan book is weighted towards business customers, which can result in relatively high cyclicality of revenue and earnings. Geographic diversification is mostly restricted to small subsidiaries in North Macedonia and Cyprus.

Scope does not anticipate any changes to the group’s business model in the near future. Having sold its legacy NPEs over the past five years, the group is now focused on credit growth, increasing its market shares across sectors, and enhancing its penetration in wealth management, bancassurance, and payments. Its 2025-27 business plan projects further investment in digital transformation and the workforce. Meanwhile, around EUR 2bn of excess capital gives the group the option to explore M&A opportunities.

Operating environment assessment: Moderately supportive (High). The group is based in Greece (Moderately supportive high). Greece is a small economy within the EU, with a GDP per capita well below the euro area average. Scope acknowledges the reduction in the country’s public-debt ratio and general government deficit on the back of sustained economic growth, elevated inflation, and primary budget surpluses. However, the high level of public debt may still constrain the Greek government from providing support to the economy during downturns in the context of the rigid European fiscal framework. The banking sector is dominated by four banks, including NBG, which have significantly reduced NPEs since 2018 and now exhibit solid financial metrics.

Greece is part of the European Banking Union, which has brought about a significant strengthening and harmonisation in bank regulation and supervision under the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism, which we consider to be supportive of financial stability. The European Central Bank also shares with national central banks the role of lender of last resort, which limits illiquidity risks to the banks.

Scope arrives at an initial mapping of bbb- based on a combined assessment of the issuer’s operating environment and business model.

Long-term sustainability assessment (ESG factor): Neutral. The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the issuer is embracing changes to ensure the long-term sustainability of its business model. Progress made may be tangible but does not warrant further credit differentiation.

Scope recognises NBG’s commitment to improving the long-term sustainability of its business through significant investments in IT. The group’s multi-year overhaul of its core banking system, due to end in Q1 2026, should bolster operational resilience and cyber security, while improving efficiency. Over the past years, NBG’s digital offering has expanded to meet customers’ growing preference for online channels. As of September 2025, the group can boast a leading market position in digital banking, underpinned by 3.2m of active users (+ 30% since FY 2021) and market shares above 30% in credit cards and consumer loans digital sales.

As one of the leading Greek financial institutions, NBG plays an important role in the country’s green transition. Since 2020, it has issued three green bonds for a cumulative value of EUR 1.9bn for sustainable energy financing. As part of the Net Zero Banking Alliance, the group issued a transition plan for six sectors, including oil & gas, power generation, and commercial real estate.

The long-term sustainability assessment leads to an adjusted rating anchor of bbb-.

Earnings capacity and risk exposures assessment: Supportive (+1). The assessment reflects Scope’s view that earnings capacity is stable through economic cycles and provides a strong buffer against losses. Risks are well managed and are highly unlikely to lead to losses capable of undermining the issuer’s viability.

NBG’s strong profitability is driven by structurally high net interest margins on the back of leading market shares in a concentrated sector and relatively inexpensive deposit funding. Paired with robust loan growth, high net interest margins allow the group to maintain a cost/income ratio below 40% despite comparatively low fee-income contribution and sizeable investments in IT. Cost of risk is on a downward trajectory (41 bps in 9M 2025), reflecting a clean balance sheet and normalising default rates.

In 2026 and 2027, Scope expects NBG’s return on risk-weighted assets to remain high, at around 3% (3.1% in the first nine months of 2025), assuming ECB rates do not fall and the Greek economy continue to expand at a robust rate. The main downside risks to Scope’s base-case projections are exogenous shocks, including spillovers from a trade war and geopolitical events, and the potential for heightened volatility in the financial markets.

Having continued to reduce the stock of legacy NPEs over the past two years, NBG can now boast a clean balance sheet. For YE 2027, the group targets a gross NPE ratio of around 2% (2.5% in Q3 2025), supported by low new inflows of deteriorated loans and improving recovery rates.

Scope notes that the NBG's loan growth is concentrated in the corporate segment, where competition from both Greek and international banks is increasing. Signs of excessive risk taking, or that concentration risk has grown disproportionately, could weigh negatively on the assessment.

NBG has a concentrated exposure to the domestic sovereign (rated BBB/Positive by Scope) through government bonds (equivalent to 102% of the group’s Tier 1 capital at Q3 2025) and deferred tax credits (DTCs). However, Scope considers this exposure to be manageable in the context of NBG’s large capital resources. In a stress scenario, Scope estimates that the group could withstand losses of more than 35% on its sovereign bond portfolio, including DTCs, and still retain its regulatory viability. Further, the majority of the Greek government bond portfolio is held at amortised cost, which limits the sensitivity of NBG’s capital position to bond price volatility. In line with Scope’s Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, the rating on the issuer is not mechanically capped at the level of the sovereign.

Financial viability management assessment: Comfortable (+1 notch). The assessment reflects Scope’s view that the issuer’s maintains comfortable buffer to relevant regulatory requirements and Scope expects it to continue to do so. The issuer’s financial viability is largely resilient to tail-risk events.

Through earnings retention, NBG has established one of the strongest capital positions among its rated peers. As of September 2025, the group’s CET1 ratio was 19%, 940 bps above the minimum requirement. Although DTCs, a legacy of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, still represent 44% of total CET1 capital, NBG has announced plans to accelerate their amortisation to nil by 2032-34 (rather than the initially planned date of 2042). This has significantly reduced regulatory risk, which Scope already considered to be low. Scope expects the group’s capital position to remain strong through 2025-27, with a CET1 ratio above 18% after pay-outs.

The assessment also takes into account NBG’s robust deposit base and improving access to the bond market. Customer deposits, most of which are highly granular and stable, account for 90% of the group’s funding. Consequently, the group’s loan-to-deposit ratio remains low at 64%, albeit growing. Other than customer deposits, the use of alternative funding sources is primarily confined to bond issuance for MREL purposes. Liquidity ratios compare favourably with those of peers and remain among the highest in Europe.

One or more key drivers of the credit rating action are considered an ESG factor.

Outlook and rating sensitivities

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that the risks to the current rating are balanced.

The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlooks is:

1. Balanced and prudent growth in Greece and abroad, either organically or through acquisitions, could improve the business model assessment.

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. Material reduction in earnings capacity, which could be driven by lower interest rates and/or increased competition, leading to a less favourable assessment of earnings capacity and risk exposures.
    
2. A significant deterioration in asset quality, or evidence of excessive growth in highly cyclical sectors, could lead to a lower earnings capacity and risk exposures assessment.
    
3. Erosion of the group’s capital position, potentially due a severe credit deterioration or a more aggressive pay-out policy, triggering a negative revision of the financial viability management assessment.

Debt ratings

Preferred senior unsecured debt: BBB+/Stable. The rating is aligned with the issuer rating and applies to senior unsecured debt ranking above other classes of senior unsecured debt.

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt: BBB/Stable. The rating is one notch lower than the issuer rating, reflecting statutory subordination.

Tier 2 debt: BB+/Stable. The rating is three notches below the issuer rating, in line with our standard approach for Tier 2 debt instruments, without additional notching.

Short-term debt: S-2. NBG’s S-2 short-term credit rating is derived from the long-term issuer credit rating. The rating is consistent with Scope’s long-term/short-term rating correspondence table. The choice of the highest possible short-term rating (S-2 given the BBB issuer rating) reflects the group’s ample liquidity metrics, maintained over time, and access to central bank facilities if needed.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors

Please refer to the ‘long-term sustainability assessment’ under the ‘key rating drivers’ section above for the ESG analysis.

All rating actions and rated entities

National Bank of Greece SA

Issuer rating: BBB+/Stable, new rating

Preferred senior unsecured debt rating: BBB+/Stable, new rating

Non-preferred senior unsecured debt rating: BBB/Stable, new rating

Tier 2 debt rating: BB+/Stable, new rating

Tier 2 debt rating assigned to instruments XS2790334184, XS2595343059

Short-term debt rating: S-2, new rating

Global Medium Term Note Programme of EUR 5bn: Senior unsecured (preferred): BBB+/Stable, new rating; Senior unsecured (non-preferred): BBB/Stable, new rating. Tier 2 debt: BB+/Stable, new rating

Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. No cash flow analysis was performed.

Methodology
The methodology used for these Credit Ratings and Outlooks, (Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, 18 September 2025), is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings’ internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and Outlooks were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and Outlooks are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Alessandro Boratti, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Marco Troiano, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 12 February 2026.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
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