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      Case for cross-border consolidation remains weak; but domestic deals in Europe have potential

      3/6/2024 Research EN

      Case for cross-border consolidation remains weak; but domestic deals in Europe have potential

      This year has seen a rise in large bank M&A, reigniting speculation that a wave of consolidation may be imminent. The case for large cross-border mergers remains weak but there is potential for domestic activity in Italy, Spain, Germany and the UK.

      Scope Ratings publishes new RMBS rating methodology and calls for comments

      31/5/2024 Research EN

      Scope Ratings publishes new RMBS rating methodology and calls for comments

      The new structured finance methodology is specific to residential mortgage-backed securities, mainly in Europe. Scope is calling for comments until the 1st of July 2024.

      Spanish banks quarterly: profitability better than expected; competitive dynamics shifting

      30/5/2024 Research EN

      Spanish banks quarterly: profitability better than expected; competitive dynamics shifting

      Spanish banks saw record net interest income in Q1 while the cost of deposits likely reached its peak. BBVA’s bid for Sabadell could herald a period of consolidation in a dynamic economy offering growth opportunities that could benefit pricing power.

      Italian NPL collections: worst Q1 in three years

      29/5/2024 Research EN

      Italian NPL collections: worst Q1 in three years

      Q1 Italian NPL volumes were the lowest since 2021, 19% below the 2022/2023 average, while March 2024 collections were 36% below the average of the past two years even though there were more transactions (44) than in the two previous years (41 and 43).

      Scope publishes updated covered bond rating methodology and calls for comments

      27/5/2024 Research EN

      Scope publishes updated covered bond rating methodology and calls for comments

      Scope Ratings requests comments on its Covered Bond Rating Methodology by 27 June 2024. The proposed changes to the methodology are not expected to have an impact on outstanding covered bond ratings assigned by Scope.

      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      22/5/2024 Research EN

      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      With better-than-expected operating conditions, 2024 looks favourable for Italian banks. However, latent risks persist, as evidenced by developments around eco tax credits.

      Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations

      21/5/2024 Research EN

      Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations

      With our negative CRE outlook persisting and the collateral values of CRE loans volatile, covenant breaches are also driving up NPLs. Regulators are seeking to address value volatility, but Pfandbriefe are shielded because of cover-pool eligibility caps.

      BBVA’s Sabadell bid reflects solid prospects for Spanish banking sector

      15/5/2024 Research EN

      BBVA’s Sabadell bid reflects solid prospects for Spanish banking sector

      BBVA’s determination to pursue Banco de Sabadell and Sabadell’s confidence in its standalone strategy align with our view of the supportive banking environment in Spain, which remains an attractive market to deploy capital.

      Bank Capital Quarterly: dealing with the TBTF dilemma

      14/5/2024 Research EN

      Bank Capital Quarterly: dealing with the TBTF dilemma

      Significant efforts have been made since the GFC to improve the supervision of systemically important banks and address the issue of too-big-to-fail. But on this and the effectiveness of AT1s in supporting G-SIB recovery, there is room for improvement.

      German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern

      13/5/2024 Research EN

      German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern

      EU supervisors remain concerned that banks’ real-estate exposure is vulnerable, and US contagion risk is an issue. But while German banks’ CRE portfolios are unlikely to have endangered the safe-haven status of Pfandbriefe, office exposure is a worry.