Without substantive corrective fiscal measures, the US public debt ratio will reach 133% of GDP by 2030, exceeding our forecasts for France (122%) and the UK (111%), while interest payments will average 12% of revenues, at least twice that of peers.

Nicușor Dan’s victory in Romania’s presidential election eases political tensions and supports EU alignment but addressing the widening fiscal deficit, the weak absorption of EU funds and a backlog of reforms remain stark challenges for the authorities.

The Spanish economy’s growth continues to outpace the euro area’s due to improving labour markets, strong tourism receipts and ample EU funds. Still, further fiscal consolidation and reforms are needed to improve Spain’s resilience to potential shocks.

Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

Political uncertainty in Romania is complicating fiscal consolidation, raising borrowing costs and delaying reforms linked to EU funding while shifts in United States trade and security policy add further challenges to the fiscal and growth outlooks.

Italy’s economy is set to grow more slowly in 2025-26 given US tariffs and delays in recovery-plan investments. Still, reforms and continuing EU-fund deployment should support medium-term growth after 2026.

Three scenarios for the sovereign credit outlook have emerged from the uncertainty over US trade policy – "tariff-light", trade war, or a wider economic and financial crisis including the introduction of US capital controls – says Scope Ratings.

Unless Austria’s government undertakes additional reforms to stabilise and reverse rising public debt, public finances will continue to weaken given the modest economic growth outlook and sustained fiscal pressures.

The balance of risks for the global credit outlook remains negative. The United States government’s wide-ranging new import tariffs have increased the likelihood of domestic recession and exacerbated global economic and financial vulnerabilities.

Scope affirmed the UK’s AA ratings on 28 March and kept the Stable Outlook. But fiscal deterioration and weaker debt sustainability increase risks to the rating, while 10% US tariffs on UK exports and 25% on steel and aluminium harm UK growth.