Scope affirmed the UK’s AA ratings on 28 March and kept the Stable Outlook. But fiscal deterioration and weaker debt sustainability increase risks to the rating, while 10% US tariffs on UK exports and 25% on steel and aluminium harm UK growth.

The impact of higher financial and political volatility on Türkiye’s credit ratings will mostly depend on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response and the consequences of any potential shifts in domestic economic policy.

Germany’s ample fiscal space to finance higher defence spending by issuing debt contrasts with the more constrained public finances in France and the United Kingdom unless both governments make significant budgetary adjustments.

Spain's proposed EUR 83bn debt relief for autonomous communities, equal to 25% of total regional debt, is credit-positive as it will reduce the regions’ debt burden but it risks moral hazard, underscoring the need for financing reform.

Germany’s fiscal stimulus to decisively address its longstanding investment gap and immediate security needs could lead to EUR 625bn of new debt over five years, or 13% of GDP. However, sustaining long-term growth potential will require further reforms.

France is heading towards difficult budgetary trade-offs to reconcile the government’s commitment to lower budget deficits while increasing defence spending given the country’s central role in strengthening Europe’s security architecture.

Is Germany at an inflection point? The expected coalition deal between the CDU/CSU and the SPD will set the course for whether Germany can boost defence spending, kick-start growth and restore competitiveness after five years of stagnation.

The outcome of Germany’s election facilitates a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition agreement, though reforms to Germany’s debt brake, needed to help tackle acute security and economic challenges, will remain challenging.

Meeting a proposed NATO defence spending target of 3% of GDP would increase national budget deficits and debt in the EU while weakening sovereign credit profiles, unless member states cut other spending, raise taxes or agree to joint funding of defence.

The UK’s sovereign rating has remained resilient to recent crises, underpinned by the country’s institutional strengths. But greater structural risks in the UK government bond market and a worsening public debt outlook are downside factors.