The Israel-Iran truce fails to permanently reduce geo-political uncertainties weighing on an already subdued economic outlook for Europe, exposed to continued volatility in energy prices, but the crisis’s impact on Europe’s economy is limited for now.

Poland’s polarised politics and institutional tensions are hindering reforms while wide budget deficits and rising structural spending are curbing fiscal space. Still, EU funds and investment inflows continue to underpin the economy’s robust fundamentals.

Les économies américaine et européenne connaîtront une croissance plus lente que prévue en 2025, contribuant à un ralentissement de la croissance économique globale. Les perspectives de l’économie mondiale restent orientées à la baisse, selon Scope Group.

The US and European economies will expand more slowly in 2025 than previously forecast, contributing to more moderate global economic growth, with risks for the global economy and global credit risk skewed to the downside, Scope Group says.

Greece’s favourable debt profile is a core credit strength but relying less on official-sector borrowing and more on market-based funding is vital to improve liquidity, deepen the pool of domestic investors and safeguard long-term debt sustainability.

Scope’s economists have been recognised by Focus Economics for a record 28 analyst awards for 2025, exceeding the previous high in 2024.

With inflation under control, Bulgaria is on track to adopt the euro in January 2026, a development which would support the stability of the highly euroised economy, improve monetary-policy flexibility and enhance the sovereign’s capital-market access.

Scope Ratings has published an update to its Supranational Rating Methodology, with non-material changes. No outstanding ratings are impacted.

Portugal likely faces another minority government after an inconclusive snap parliamentary election which risks complicating policy making, including fiscal and economic reforms.

Without substantive corrective fiscal measures, the US public debt ratio will reach 133% of GDP by 2030, exceeding our forecasts for France (122%) and the UK (111%), while interest payments will average 12% of revenues, at least twice that of peers.