Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Poste Italiane S.p.A. (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: BBB+/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-2/Stable) and for the perpetual subordinated 8-year non-call hybrid securities issued by Poste Italiane S.p.A. (BBB-/Stable) on 10 July 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

The BBB+ rating of Poste Italiane S.p.A. (Poste) reflects the entity’s strong integration with its public sponsor, the Republic of Italy (BBB+/Stable). This results from: i) significant ownership ties, with the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) holding 64.26% of the capital and exerting legal control and oversight over Poste’s activities and finances; ii) Poste’s contribution to government policies as Italy’s universal postal provider and operator of the largest service distribution network; and iii) material financial interdependencies between Poste and the sovereign.

Scope further acknowledges several supportive factors: i) Poste’s management of government-guaranteed postal savings and deposits bolsters the entity’s financial stability; ii) the dominant market position as provider of diverse services through the nation’s most extensive distribution network allows Poste Italiane to play a vital role in supporting Italy’s socio-economic development and innovation and; iii) Poste is the sole entity offering postal saving products issued by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP, BBB+/Stable) and guaranteed by the Italian State, significantly enhancing the likelihood of exceptional support in a timely manner, if needed. At the same time the MEF, as the primary shareholder, receives annual dividends from Poste.

Scope also acknowledges Poste Italiane’s strong standalone fundamentals.

The business risk profile of Poste is characterised by: i) its dominant market position offering distinctive products and services, notably in mail, parcel, and distribution, alongside the financial services sector; and ii) a diversified business structure ensuring relatively constant revenue streams and robust operational performance. This enables Poste to navigate various market trends while maintaining sustained operating performance and profitability.

Latest developments reflect the company’s solid fundamentals as net profit reached a record-high in 2024 of EUR 2bn, increasing from EUR 1.9bn in 2023. The Insurance Services segment remained the most profitable (around EUR 1bn net profit in 2024), while the Mail, Parcel and Distribution business reached for the first time last year a positive adjusted EBIT¹ of EUR 104m. This was due to strong growth in international parcel business, growing contract and healthcare logistics, as well as the increase in mail fees. The EBITDA margin also remained solid and stable at around 28% on average over 2022-24. The business risk profile is further bolstered by conservative cost management, with personnel expenses declining to around 41% of net operating revenue in 2024, down from 59% in 2016.

Moreover, the financial risk profile is excellent due to Poste Italiane’s conservative financial management practices, low financial debt – at around EUR 2bn at the end of 2024 – low cost of funding, favourable debt profile, a significant portion of fixed interest rate debt, a favourable maturity profile and no exposure to foreign currency risks. The funding base is also very supportive, with around 63% of total debt consisting of loans with the EIB (up from 42% in 2023), followed by bonds (25%) and CEB loans (12%). This is further supported by ample liquidity buffers, access to external credit lines, and robust cash flow generation from operational activities.

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that risks to the ratings are balanced over the next 12 to 18 months.

Upside scenario for the long-term ratings and Outlooks is:

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks were upgraded.

Downside scenarios for the long-term ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks were downgraded.
    
2. There were legal changes leading to a significantly lower integration with the national government, for example via material divestment.
    
3. A significant and sustained deterioration in the business and/or financial risk profile.

1. Excluding systemic charges related to insurance guarantee fund and extraordinary costs and proceeds.

The methodologies applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Government Related Entities Methodology, 10 December 2024; General Corporate Rating Methodology, 14 February 2025) are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Alvise Lennkh-Yunus, Managing Director
                  
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