Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today affirmed Cassa Depositi e Prestiti S.p.A.’s (“CDP or the Entity”) BBB+ long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in local currency, and revised the Outlooks to Positive, from Stable. Scope has also assigned a BBB+ long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in foreign currency to CDP, with Positive Outlooks. Scope also affirmed CDP’s S-2 short-term issuer rating in local currency, and revised the Outlook to Positive, from Stable. Finally, Scope has assigned a S-2 short-term issuer rating in foreign currency to CDP, with Positive Outlook. The Positive Outlooks are driven by Scope's revision of the Outlook to Positive on the Italian Republic’ ratings of BBB+ on 31 October 2025¹.

The latest information on the rating, including rating report and related methodologies, is available here.

Rating rationale

The BBB+ rating of CDP is aligned with that of the Republic of Italy (BBB+/Positive) and reflects the following assessments:

Strong level of integration with the Republic of Italy: CDP is the Italian National Promotional Institution, with a mission to foster the country’s economic development.

1. CDP is majority-owned and controlled by Italy’s ministry of economy and finance (MEF, 82.77% stake), with the remainder held by banking foundations and treasury shares. The MEF elects most of CDP’s board members and sets the policy regarding ‘separate account’ activities (i.e., management of resources from state-guaranteed postal savings), which are supervised by a Judge of the State Audit Court and a parliamentary committee. CDP retains autonomy in setting strategy within the limits of its by-laws. The ability of the banking foundations to veto resolutions requiring a qualified majority (such as changes in by-laws) ensures CDP can pursue its corporate objectives without excessive political interference. 
    
2. CDP carries out activities of general interest by channeling postal savings towards public administration, infrastructures and enterprises. CDP is also a ‘strategic investor’ in Italian companies of significant national interest. In recent years, CDP’s business scope has broadened. Activities now include technical advisory and third-party funds management, and its toolkit has expanded to private equity, venture capital and private debt financing. CDP plays two roles in Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience plan: as a financing entity, through the allocation of resources for equity and debt financing and funds management, and as an advisor. 
    
3. There is a high degree of financial interdependency between CDP and the Italian state. Most of CDP’s funding comes from state-guaranteed postal savings, in the form of postal passbooks (“libretti postali”) or interest-bearing bonds (“Buoni Fruttiferi Postali”). This funding, which is collected by Poste Italiane finances infrastructures, local public services and supports Italy’s industrial system. CDP is also a meaningful investor in Italian sovereign bonds.
    
   CDP maintains exclusive access to postal savings. In the first half of 2024, CDP and Poste Italiane signed a new postal savings agreement for the period 2024-26. While financial terms have not changed materially, the agreement entails expanding the product and service offering to meet evolving customer needs and increasing investments to improve management services and processes.

High likelihood of exceptional support from the Italian MEF: Scope regards the likelihood of exceptional support to be high, despite the absence of an explicit guarantee on all of CDP’s liabilities. This view is based on CDP’s strategic importance to the Italian state, the lack of credible alternatives, and the severe implications a default would have for the Italian economy and public finances.

Sound stand-alone financial fundamentals: Although CDP does not pursue a profit-maximising strategy, it has achieved solid earnings in recent years (ROE at around 10%), partly thanks to the stream of dividend income from its equity portfolio. Lately, in a higher interest rate environment, profits have increased due to wider commercial spreads. CDP’s asset quality continues to benefit from its material exposure to Italian public entities at both local and central government levels. Finally, CDP manages its funding and liquidity in a similar manner to financial institutions subject to Basel 3 regulations. The bank benefits from a stable flow of postal savings, which are guaranteed by the state, and accounted for more than 82% of total funding as of H1 2025 and from a sizeable cash position.

Key rating drivers

Strong integration with the Republic of Italy. Despite being a joint stock company since 2003, CDP is owned and controlled by Italy’s MEF, which appoints 7 out of 11 board members and approves the business plan. Moreover, with regard to the administration of Separate Account, the five supplementary members are strictly linked with the government, being the general director of the Treasury, the State Account general and 3 representatives from regions, provinces and municipalities. The minority shareholders, holding a share of 15.93%, with their veto power on strategic decisions, contain the potential risk of undue political influence, including the risk of investing in distressed companies.

Scope assesses CDP’s high integration with Italy also on the basis of its strong mandate. By receiving funding mainly through postal savings, CDP provides finance to public sector entities, infrastructures, but also to businesses to foster their expansion in both domestic and international markets, including private equity and venture capital, as well as real assets. Recently, in line with its new strategic plan 2025-2027, CDP has started to provide lending directly to SMEs, further widening CDP’s activities to support Italy’s economy. Moreover, CDP plays an important role as technical advisor for the management of cohesion funds, as well as project implementation regarding the NRRP and to promote international cooperation. All these activities aimed at promoting Italy’s developments and innovation underscore CDP’s highly strategic purpose for Italy and its economic performance.

There is also a high degree of financial interdependency between CDP and the Italian state. Although CDP does not receive direct contributions from the government, it is primarily funded by postal savings, which are a reliable and stable source of funding and are explicitly guaranteed by the state. At the same time, CDP plays a crucial role in supporting the government through its lending activity to the public sector. As of YE 2024, around 90% of CDP group’s loans to customers are related to the government. CDP is also a meaningful investor in Italian sovereign debt. Its debt securities portfolio, which made up around 20% of total assets at the end of June 2025, consists almost entirely of Italian government bonds (EUR 71.85bn). The latter reflects an important and stable source of funding of Italy’s debt, which is not expected to be sold in case of market volatility.

High likelihood of exceptional support. Given CDP’s systemic importance for the Italian economy, public administration, and treasury liquidity, should CDP need extraordinary support, we believe this would be forthcoming. In addition, we would expect support to extend to unguaranteed liabilities if necessary. There are no alternatives to CDP in Italy currently. CDP is a net lender to the Italian state (both central and local administrations). A default of the group would have severe reputational and financial implications for treasury liquidity management, potentially entailing a very large liability by triggering the state guarantee on postal savings.

Strong fundamentals: stable capital level, sustained profitability, strong asset quality, diverse and stable funding

Although CDP does not pursue a profit-maximising strategy, it shows a sound level of profitability, often higher than many Italian and European commercial banks. CDP earnings benefited from (i) privileged access to stable postal savings; (ii) low credit costs; and (iii) dividends from equity stakes. Net income amounted to EUR 1.9bn in 2025 H1, up 8% compared with the same period last year, reflecting higher dividends related to listed equity investments, which more than offset the slight reduction in net interest income, because of a decline in short interest rates. Accounting equity has been fairly stable in recent years, at around 11-12% of total assets net of cash and cash equivalents and other short-term investments.

Moreover, CDP records a solid credit quality, reflecting the relatively low risk of CDP group’s assets (EUR 390.5bn), with more than 60% being linked to the Italian sovereign. Government-related loan exposures accounted for 90% of loans to customers. The level of non-performing loans is immaterial. The debt portfolio is largely held at amortised cost and is comprised almost entirely of fixed rate and inflation-linked government bonds. These bonds form part of the CDP Group’s liquidity reserves and are used to hedge the profitability of postal savings against interest rate volatility.

CDP funding, mainly in the form of postal savings, tends to be typically stable, benefiting from the government guarantee. In addition, its funding through wholesale market issuance to finance the ordinary account continues to receive solid demand from a diverse investor base. CDP’s outstanding bonds, amounting to around EUR 21.9bn as Q2 2025, typically receive strong demand from a diverse investor base. Finally, CDP benefits from money market transactions on behalf of the Italian treasury and has access to ECB funding. All these factors support CDP’s liquidity position and funding flexibility. 

Rating-change drivers

The Positive Outlook reflects Scope’s view that risks to the ratings are tilted to the upside over the coming 12 to 18 months.

Upside scenario for the ratings and Outlooks is:

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks are upgraded.

Downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks are downgraded.
    
2. A material change in the level of integration with the Italian Republic and/or credit support from the guarantee on postal savings.
    
3. A significant and sustained deterioration in the business and/or financial risk profile.

Qualitative Scorecards (QS1, QS2)

Scope applies a top-down approach (QS1) in assessing the creditworthiness of CDP, which takes the public sponsor’s rating (Republic of Italy: BBB+/Positive) as the starting point and then potentially negatively adjusts it based on the assessment of: i) control and regular support; and ii) likelihood of exceptional support (QS2). The approach also includes a supplementary analysis of the entity’s business and financial risk profiles.

The adoption of the top-down approach (QS1) reflects the strong integration between CDP and its public sponsor, the Italian Republic, resulting from: i) a ‘medium’ integration assessment for legal status; (ii) a ‘high’ integration assessment regarding its purpose and activities; iii) a ‘high’ integration assessment for shareholder structure; and iv) a ‘high’ integration assessment on financial interdependencies.

Scope assesses control and regular government support for CDP as ‘medium’ (QS2) reflecting: i) a ‘medium’ assessment of government control over strategic and operational decision-making; ii) a ‘high’ assessment of control over key personnel, governing and oversight bodies; and iii) a ‘medium’ assessment of evidence of financial support.

Scope assesses the likelihood of exceptional support to be ‘high’ (QS2), reflecting: i) a ‘high’ assessment of strategic importance for the public sponsor; ii) a ‘high’ assessment of substitution difficulty; and iii) a ‘high’ assessment of the socio-economic, reputational, and financial default implications in the event of a hypothetical default.

The assessments under QS1 and QS2 result in an indicative rating of ‘bbb+’ for CDP. The supplementary analysis of stand-alone financial fundamentals has not led to any adjustment to the indicative rating, resulting in a final rating of BBB+.

The results were discussed and confirmed by a rating committee.

Environment, social and governance (ESG) factors

Scope considers the following ESG factors in the rating analysis.

Scope's BBB+ rating for the Republic of Italy, CDP’s public sponsor, includes an appraisal of ESG factors, which are weighted at 25% overall per Scope's ‘Sovereign Ratings’ methodology.

Governance factors are relevant to CDP’s rating and are included in the assessment of integration with the Republic of Italy and in the assessment of CDP’s stand-alone profile. These factors are supported by a robust corporate governance structure, and a conservative approach to financial management.

Social factors are included in the assessment of CDP’s strategic relevance. Scope assesses social aspects as relevant and positive for CDP’s ratings, given its mandate to foster Italy’s development, including support local entities, cohesion and promote international cooperation. CDP has been active in issuing social bonds with proceeds from social bonds used to finance projects that have a positive social impact, such as lending to SMEs located in disadvantaged areas, to social housing, and to companies affected by Covid.

Scope also analyses CDP’s environmental policies. CDP is highly committed to play a proactive role to support the green transition in Italy mobilizing resources to finance projects aimed at improving climate change mitigation and adaptation, alongside with a reduction of CO2 related to the direct financing portfolio. Moreover, CDP aims to foster green transition supporting the improvement of the water supply network and reducing hydrogeological risk. In the first half of 2025, CDP allocated EUR 1bn to climate change mitigation and adaptation and issued its second green bond with reporting based on blockchain technology.

Rating Committee
The main points discussed during the rating committee were: i) the level of integration with the public sponsor; ii) the likelihood of exceptional support, and iii) a supplementary analysis of CDP’s fundamentals.

Rating driver references
1. Scope affirms Italy’s credit ratings at BBB+ and revises the Outlook to Positive, 31 October 2025

Methodology
The methodology used for these Credit Ratings and Outlooks, (Government Related Entity Rating Methodology, 3 September 25), is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain and the Rated Entity.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and Outlooks were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and Outlook are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Carlo Capuano, Executive Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Alvise Lennkh-Yunus, Managing Director
The local currency issuer and the senior unsecured debt Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 24 October 2017. The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were last updated on 1 October 2024.
The local currency short-term debt Credit Rating/Outlook was first released by Scope Ratings on 1 February 2018. The Credit Rating/Outlook was last updated on 1 October 2024.
The foreign currency Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 12 November 2025.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
© 2025 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Fund Analysis GmbH, Scope Innovation Lab GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin. Public Ratings are generally accessible to the public. Subscription Ratings and Private Ratings are confidential and may not be shared with any unauthorised third party.