Bolt-on acquisitions and investments will improve the group’s diversification and consolidate its pan-European market position, but transformational deals remain complex and subject to political barriers.

With inflation under control, Bulgaria is on track to adopt the euro in January 2026, a development which would support the stability of the highly euroised economy, improve monetary-policy flexibility and enhance the sovereign’s capital-market access.

Scope Ratings has published an update to its Supranational Rating Methodology, with non-material changes. No outstanding ratings are impacted.

Portugal likely faces another minority government after an inconclusive snap parliamentary election which risks complicating policy making, including fiscal and economic reforms.

Italian banks are among the most profitable in Europe and the outlook is favourable, even if we anticipate lower profits in coming quarters. M&A may reshape the sector, though execution risks are rising.

Without substantive corrective fiscal measures, the US public debt ratio will reach 133% of GDP by 2030, exceeding our forecasts for France (122%) and the UK (111%), while interest payments will average 12% of revenues, at least twice that of peers.

Nicușor Dan’s victory in Romania’s presidential election eases political tensions and supports EU alignment but addressing the widening fiscal deficit, the weak absorption of EU funds and a backlog of reforms remain stark challenges for the authorities.

Operating environment assessments, the starting point for the analytical process, reflect regulatory and supervisory convergence. Ratings are determined by economic, sector and bank-specific factors. Despite uncertainties, the picture is resilient.

Italian NPL collections in March rose 45% month on month, consistent with previous years. But while monthly volumes bounced back from a poor February, they were still 43% below the three-year March average.

The Spanish economy’s growth continues to outpace the euro area’s due to improving labour markets, strong tourism receipts and ample EU funds. Still, further fiscal consolidation and reforms are needed to improve Spain’s resilience to potential shocks.