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2/6/2023 Research EN
Germany: economy to rebound in 2024 on government, consumer spending after stagnation this year
Germany's economy will return to modest growth in the second half of this year helped by increased public spending, but elevated inflation and volatile net exports will ensure the recovery remains weak at least until 2024.
1/6/2023 Research EN
French banks: sound credit profiles resilient against tighter financial conditions
Pressure on French banks’ core profitability from tighter credit conditions is not denting their credit profiles. The recent round of results was solid and the prospect of better macroeconomic conditions in Europe is credit positive for the rest of 2023.
30/5/2023 Research EN
Italian NPL collections: fewer DPOs, note sales pull down Q1 volumes
March Italian NPL collections increased by 33% on the month but were 23% and 28% lower than March 2021 and 2022, respectively. Meanwhile, first quarter 2023 volumes were 16% below the average of the same period of the previous two years.
30/5/2023 Research EN
Turkey: Erdoğan’s re-election limits prospects for tackling economic challenges, unorthodox policies
Turkey’s economy remains exposed to a disorderly adjustment following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s election victory, putting pressure on the lira and the country’s external accounts if unsustainable economic policies persist.
26/5/2023 Research EN
Spain’s environmental governance challenge: regional elections take place amid rising climate risk
Spain is among the most environmentally exposed EU countries, needing to invest heavily to enhance climate resilience and meet climate commitments, but upcoming regional elections could complicate coordination of local, regional and national policies.
25/5/2023 Research EN
The Wide Angle – Bank resolution: living wills should come with marriage contracts
With yet another reassuring set of results behind them, Europe’s large banks look remote from resolution so now is a good time to reassess whether the existing resolution framework is still capable of delivering what it is expected of it.
25/5/2023 Research EN
Spain’s regional elections offer chance for economic, fiscal reform; political fragmentation a risk
Regional elections in Spain (A-/Stable) this Sunday will be crucial in determining how regional governments navigate complex economic and budgetary challenges, with important national implications given the regions’ ample political and fiscal autonomy.