Scope Ratings requests comments on proposed revisions to its Sovereign Rating Methodology by 27 February 2026. The revised methodology is not expected to affect sovereign ratings assigned by Scope.

Thursday 29 January 2026 - 15:00 (CET)

Tensions over Greenland and growing political crosswinds in Europe are weighing on the region’s medium-term sovereign outlook despite resilient fundamentals while confidence in the US outlook is eroding amid rising concerns over policy reliability.

JD.com’s arrival in European consumer goods retail sets an important precedent for the sector and represents a further shift in commercial spheres of influence in the region.

Resilient profitability, solid asset quality and capital buffers make for a balanced base case for European banks. Alongside stable expected collateral performance, most covered bond programmes can withstand issuer downgrades of up to three notches.

Scope Ratings has published the performance overview of notes issued by Marzio Finance, a EUR 10bn securitisation programme backed by ‘cessione del quinto’ and ‘delegazione di pagamento’ (CQS) loans originated by IBL Banca.

Geopolitical tensions, continued political uncertainty in France, and poor operating efficiency may cloud the outlook for French banks in 2026 in an otherwise supportive operating environment where stable interest rates favour improved profit margins.

The Trump administration’s escalation of political pressure on the Federal Reserve underlines the White House’s increasingly unconventional policy approach which has placed pressure on the long-standing checks and balances of US governance.

Collections in November 2025 were around 40% below the three-year average for the month, and 3% lower than October. In absolute EUR terms, volumes received between September and November were stable in a narrow range.

The EU NPL ratio continues to be low and stable, but corporate NPLs are elevated in some core countries. At a time of rising geopolitical risk, trade tensions and an uncertain economic outlook, we expect a modest deterioration in asset quality.