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      TLTRO repayments – more to come

      22/11/2022 Research EN

      TLTRO repayments – more to come

      Banks are repaying just EUR 296bn of TLTRO funding this week, the low end of expectations, raising the question as to whether the ECB may have to consider other forms of quantitative tightening as it normalises its monetary policy stance.

      Economic performance is the key issue for UK banks; not tax or bonuses

      21/11/2022 Research EN

      Economic performance is the key issue for UK banks; not tax or bonuses

      Following the UK Autumn Statement, the focus with regard to the banks has been on the reduction in the corporation tax surcharge and removal of the bonus cap. But what matters more is how the economy performs and the impacts on households and businesses.

      Italian banks: solid Q3 performance; constructive outlook for 2023

      17/11/2022 Research EN

      Italian banks: solid Q3 performance; constructive outlook for 2023

      Italian banks’ Q3 results were strong. Wider interest margins reflect higher rates, operating expenses and cost of risk are under control, asset-quality trends are intact and banks maintain healthy capital buffers; trends that should continue into 2023.

      Spanish banks: solid 9m results, risks from real estate exposures manageable

      11/11/2022 Research EN

      Spanish banks: solid 9m results, risks from real estate exposures manageable

      Spanish banks’ Q3/9M results saw net interest income trend higher, better revenues absorb higher OpEx, and credit costs contained. Asset quality was broadly flat but several banks increased NPL coverage. CET1 ratios stabilised after some QoQ declines.

      The Wide Angle – European bank profitability is no longer a major problem

      8/11/2022 Research EN

      The Wide Angle – European bank profitability is no longer a major problem

      Contrary to the broadly held market view that European banks continue to be insufficiently profitable, the sector’s bottom line is now reaching an adequate level. Analysts and investors should revisit their views that profits remain a risk for the sector.

      Norway’s residential housing boom is over: prices starting to fall

      4/11/2022 Research EN

      Norway’s residential housing boom is over: prices starting to fall

      Norway’s house prices are falling as the economic backdrop deteriorates and the era of ultra-low interest rates ends. This will expose households to an affordability shock. Banks are entering the challenging environment from a position of strength.

      TLTRO changes signal significant ECB regime change

      1/11/2022 Research EN

      TLTRO changes signal significant ECB regime change

      The ECB’s decision to end its EUR 2trn TLTRO programme early by incentivising banks to repay the funds from November ends almost a decade of balance-sheet expansion so marks a significant regime change.

      EU alignment strengthens Spain’s covered bond framework

      1/11/2022 Research EN

      EU alignment strengthens Spain’s covered bond framework

      Spain’s covered bond framework has been significantly improved following legal alignment with the European Covered Bond Directive (CBD). It is now stronger and more robust, reflecting significantly enhanced legal clarity and transparency.

      European Bank Capital Quarterly: solid capital buffers against weaker outlook

      25/10/2022 Research EN

      European Bank Capital Quarterly: solid capital buffers against weaker outlook

      Heading into a much less benign economic outlook, we take comfort from the capital positions of major European banks. Since the global financial crisis, banks have materially strengthened their solvency profiles, providing buffers to absorb losses.

      Q&A: how will the ECB's efforts to trim its balance sheet affect European banks?

      24/10/2022 Research EN

      Q&A: how will the ECB's efforts to trim its balance sheet affect European banks?

      The ECB’s accommodative monetary stance has seen its asset base balloon to EUR 8.7trn, compared to EUR 4.7trn in 2019 and EUR 2.2trn in 2014. Figuring out how to trim its balance sheet sits with rate rises and normalising monetary policy is a priority.