The introduction by Poland’s financial supervisory authority (KNF) of a long-term finance ratio for residential mortgages could provide a boost to Poland’s hibernating covered bond market. Green covered bonds could become the instrument of choice.

European ESG corporate bond issuance surged to EUR 93bn-equivalent in H1 2024, keeping pace with the torrent of overall market activity and stabilising at around 25% of total bond volumes. We expect full-year ESG issuance to grow 40% year over year.

This year will not set any records for investor-placed covered bonds. After moderate-to-strong activity for most of the year, issuance in June was the slowest in over 10 years. But we still believe our projected volume of EUR 170bn for 2024 is feasible.

The new structured finance methodology is specific to residential mortgage-backed securities, mainly in Europe.

There is less than six months to go until the property value in the updated Capital Requirements Regulation takes effect. This could have a notable impact on covered bonds as market values are directly linked to the amount of bonds that can be issued.

Credit risk remains high in Europe’s retailing sector this year, particularly in the discretionary goods segment, with no sign that the rising trend of business failures from last year will reverse in 2024 after defaults rose in the first quarter.

Italian NPL collections of EUR 208m in May 2024 were 12% up month-on-month but 15% below the May average of the last two years owing to a 29% decline in DPOs.

The persistent negative rating drift in place between the fourth quarter of 2021 and third quarter of 2023 continues to recede. The upward shift is mainly due to reduced rating pressure on CRE/CMBS and secured NPL transactions.

Losses to senior noteholders of the Elizabeth Finance 2018 CMBS resulting from the sale price of the properties securing the Maroon loan was an idiosyncratic outcome. It may not be a unique outlier but will not trigger wider market turbulence.

Lower than expected indemnity proceeds and long indemnity processes have led to recovery shortfalls in most Italian NPL transactions so far.