Scope has completed a monitoring review for Gode Wind 1 Investor Holding GmbH
The latest information of the rating reports is available on this LINK.
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Scope completed the monitoring review for Gode Wind 1 Investor Holding GmbH on 28 March 2023 for the BBB+ rating on the senior secured notes with a current outstanding balance of EUR 185.3m.
This monitoring note does not constitute a credit rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated rating history can be found on www.scoperatings.com
Key rating factors
The BBB+ rating reflects a total expected loss of 0.11% over the notes’ life until maturity, equivalent to a 1.51-year constant-exposure expected risk horizon. Key drivers are the low risks during operation, particularly given the experienced sponsors and operator, and the good technical record. Projected coverage ratios are at the lower end of Scope’s expectations, but this is mitigated by the robust revenue generation, with no merchant power price exposure until the notes’ maturity, and by the low regulatory risk. The project features a fully amortising debt profile followed by a long remaining useful asset life. However, the recovery rate of the project is lower than in another Scope-rated peer transaction, Borkum Riffgrund 2, reflecting the lower profitability during the project’s tail period due to the smaller-capacity turbine model used.
The project’s actual electricity generation, including compensated curtailment volumes in 2022, was slightly above Scope’s rating case. This was mainly due to the minimal negative impact of uncompensated events (grid outages up to certain thresholds and negative price events) during the year. Technical performance was robust, with both turbine availability (97.7%) and park availability (96.5%) above expectations.
Revenues exceeded the rating case expectation by 18% due to the extremely high wholesale electricity prices, particularly in the third quarter of 2022. The market premium regime allowed generators to retain excess revenues above the applicable reference value (currently EUR 194/MWh for the project) but this upside potential has been limited since 1 December 2022 following the introduction of the windfall profit levy. Operating costs were below budget, reflecting the lower turbine maintenance costs. EBITDA was 27% higher than in the rating case. The 12-month backward-looking debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) was 1.70x for the period ending December 2022 compared with the rating case forecast of 1.23x.
Scope has updated its rating case forecast to reflect revised inflation and power price projections. For the 12-month backward-looking DSCR, the minimum is 1.20x and the average is 1.29x. The forecasted financial metrics are not materially different to the original rating case projections.
The methodologies applicable for the reviewed rating (General Project Finance Rating Methodology, 16 November 2022; Counterparty Risk Methodology, 14 July 2022) are available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst Marton Zempleni, Senior Representative
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