The latest information of the rating reports is available on this LINK.

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the case of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations. 

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macroeconomic or financial market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit ratings’ performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope publicly announces the completion of each monitoring review on its website.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Gode Wind 1 Investor Holding GmbH on 28 March 2023 for the BBB+ rating on the senior secured notes with a current outstanding balance of EUR 185.3m.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated rating history can be found on www.scoperatings.com

Key rating factors

The BBB+ rating reflects a total expected loss of 0.11% over the notes’ life until maturity, equivalent to a 1.51-year constant-exposure expected risk horizon. Key drivers are the low risks during operation, particularly given the experienced sponsors and operator, and the good technical record. Projected coverage ratios are at the lower end of Scope’s expectations, but this is mitigated by the robust revenue generation, with no merchant power price exposure until the notes’ maturity, and by the low regulatory risk. The project features a fully amortising debt profile followed by a long remaining useful asset life. However, the recovery rate of the project is lower than in another Scope-rated peer transaction, Borkum Riffgrund 2, reflecting the lower profitability during the project’s tail period due to the smaller-capacity turbine model used. 

The project’s actual electricity generation, including compensated curtailment volumes in 2022, was slightly above Scope’s rating case. This was mainly due to the minimal negative impact of uncompensated events (grid outages up to certain thresholds and negative price events) during the year. Technical performance was robust, with both turbine availability (97.7%) and park availability (96.5%) above expectations.

Revenues exceeded the rating case expectation by 18% due to the extremely high wholesale electricity prices, particularly in the third quarter of 2022. The market premium regime allowed generators to retain excess revenues above the applicable reference value (currently EUR 194/MWh for the project) but this upside potential has been limited since 1 December 2022 following the introduction of the windfall profit levy. Operating costs were below budget, reflecting the lower turbine maintenance costs. EBITDA was 27% higher than in the rating case. The 12-month backward-looking debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) was 1.70x for the period ending December 2022 compared with the rating case forecast of 1.23x.

Scope has updated its rating case forecast to reflect revised inflation and power price projections. For the 12-month backward-looking DSCR, the minimum is 1.20x and the average is 1.29x. The forecasted financial metrics are not materially different to the original rating case projections.

The methodologies applicable for the reviewed rating (General Project Finance Rating Methodology, 16 November 2022; Counterparty Risk Methodology, 14 July 2022) are available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst Marton Zempleni, Senior Representative

© 2023 Scope SE & Co. KGaA and all its subsidiaries including Scope Ratings GmbH, Scope Ratings UK Limited, Scope Analysis GmbH, Scope Investor Services GmbH and Scope ESG Analysis GmbH (collectively, Scope). All rights reserved. The information and data supporting Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions and related research and credit opinions originate from sources Scope considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data. Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, or related research and credit opinions are provided ‘as is’ without any representation or warranty of any kind. In no circumstance shall Scope or its directors, officers, employees and other representatives be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages, expenses of any kind, or losses arising from any use of Scope’s ratings, rating reports, rating opinions, related research or credit opinions. Ratings and other related credit opinions issued by Scope are, and have to be viewed by any party as, opinions on relative credit risk and not a statement of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Any report issued by Scope is not a prospectus or similar document related to a debt security or issuing entity. Scope issues credit ratings and related research and opinions with the understanding and expectation that parties using them will assess independently the suitability of each security for investment or transaction purposes. Scope’s credit ratings address relative credit risk, they do not address other risks such as market, liquidity, legal, or volatility. The information and data included herein is protected by copyright and other laws. To reproduce, transmit, transfer, disseminate, translate, resell, or store for subsequent use for any such purpose the information and data contained herein, contact Scope Ratings GmbH at Lennéstraße 5 D-10785 Berlin.