Operating environment assessments, the starting point for the analytical process, reflect regulatory and supervisory convergence. Ratings are determined by economic, sector and bank-specific factors. Despite uncertainties, the picture is resilient.

Italian NPL collections in March rose 45% month on month, consistent with previous years. But while monthly volumes bounced back from a poor February, they were still 43% below the three-year March average.

Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

The robust solvency of European banks and their capacity to absorb credit losses from ordinary profitability provide important buffers against credit deterioration at a time when US trade policy is impacting Europe’s growth and interest-rate outlook.

European households will see housing affordability deteriorate as the supply-demand gap persists and prices continue to rise. Stimulus measures are urgently needed to boost housing supply in European countries where the situation is particularly acute.

The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest quarterly issuance of European CMBS since the global financial crisis but refinancing risk for securitised loans is still high, while US tariffs could affect industrial, logistics and retail assets.

The sharp correction in European banks’ share prices following the announcement of US tariffs on EU imports reflects mounting investor concerns about the potential implications for asset quality and profitability in a traditionally high-beta sector.

Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions moved into positive territory in the first quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since 2022.

French banks’ profits will grow moderately in 2025, supported by net interest income and commissions, notably in corporate and investment banking. But improvements in profitability could be slowed by the subdued performance of the domestic economy.

Italian NPL collections fell 11% month on month in February, a noticeable deviation from past years, where February collections have typically been aligned with or slightly above January’s.