French banks’ profits will grow moderately in 2025, supported by net interest income and commissions, notably in corporate and investment banking. But improvements in profitability could be slowed by the subdued performance of the domestic economy.

Italian NPL collections fell 11% month on month in February, a noticeable deviation from past years, where February collections have typically been aligned with or slightly above January’s.

We expect a modest deterioration in EU banks’ asset quality, mainly driven by rising pressures in the EU corporate sector. But a worsening of the global operating environment could accelerate this deterioration, increasing credit risks for the banks.

Monday, April 7th 2025 - 1:00 PM (CEST)

The introduction of Dutch-specific assumptions strengthens transparency and standardisation in the RMBS rating methodology.

While Spanish banks achieved record profitability in 2024, Q4 results suggest that net interest margins and customer spreads have peaked. Increasing fees and commissions will be key to profitability, given lower rates and competitive pressure on lending.

The financial landscape is undergoing momentous change. European banks must navigate these shifts carefully to maximise profitability while mitigating risks.

Europe’s real estate firms find funding respite but refinancing challenge looms; covered bonds provide stability in turbulent times; non-prime office segment faces rising vacancy rates; what can Frederick the Great tell us about today’s capital markets?

Our distressed house price decline (HPD) benchmark assumptions for structured finance transactions have been updated to reflect real estate market vulnerabilities in 18 European countries under a severe economic shock.

UK bank profitability will remain high in 2025, supported by net interest income, a recovery in loan growth and positive contributions from structural interest-rate hedges. But profits will likely decline from previous highs.