Scope Ratings has published the performance overview of notes issued by Marzio Finance, a EUR 10bn securitisation programme backed by ‘cessione del quinto’ and ‘delegazione di pagamento’ (CQS) loans originated by IBL Banca.

Geopolitical tensions, continued political uncertainty in France, and poor operating efficiency may cloud the outlook for French banks in 2026 in an otherwise supportive operating environment where stable interest rates favour improved profit margins.

Collections in November 2025 were around 40% below the three-year average for the month, and 3% lower than October. In absolute EUR terms, volumes received between September and November were stable in a narrow range.

The EU NPL ratio continues to be low and stable, but corporate NPLs are elevated in some core countries. At a time of rising geopolitical risk, trade tensions and an uncertain economic outlook, we expect a modest deterioration in asset quality.

European CMBS issuance accelerated in 2025 to EUR 8.7bn, almost 75% higher than the previous three years combined. We expect the momentum to continue, driven by the growing role of private credit in CRE financing and sustained demand for securitisation.

Our 2026 base case for credit is defined by a resilient economy and tight labour markets. Transaction performance will be supported by an easing in lending and refinancing conditions and robust securitisation structures will support rating stability.

Scope Ratings publishes its updated rating methodology for CRE securities and CMBS. All changes incorporated are non-material and affect no outstanding ratings. The proposed updates clarify and enhance the analytical approach.

We have a balanced base case for European banks going into 2026. Profitability is resilient, asset quality and capital buffers are solid. We have upgraded our profitability forecasts for 2026 and 2027. But several risk factors could test the outlook.

Thursday 11 December 2025 - 15:00 (CET)

The cut in minimum Long-Term Funding Ratio (WFD) requirements from 40% to 20% recommended by Poland’s Financial Supervision Authority and the inclusion of capped retail deposits come alongside bold measures to strengthen the covered bond market.