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      United Kingdom: higher taxes or growth needed to reach fiscal targets given spending pressures

      29/11/2023 Research EN

      United Kingdom: higher taxes or growth needed to reach fiscal targets given spending pressures

      The UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to rise above official forecasts given continued pressure for more welfare and government spending unless future governments raise tax revenues, reduce the welfare state or significantly improve growth prospects.

      The Wide Angle: Supervision – the overlooked strength of Europe’s banking systems

      29/11/2023 Research EN

      The Wide Angle: Supervision – the overlooked strength of Europe’s banking systems

      European banks are displaying strong and stable financial and business fundamentals due to the effectiveness of the supervisory regime and practices successfully pursued since the aftermath of the global financial crisis a decade and a half ago.

      Credit Lines: might COP 28 be a boon for green bonds?

      28/11/2023 Research EN

      Credit Lines: might COP 28 be a boon for green bonds?

      As COP 28 starts, investors are once again grappling with the need to make their views count when assessing the feasibility of net-zero strategies, especially in the energy sector. This may be good news for green-bond issuance.

      Swedish banks brace for subdued lending, poorer asset quality next year, buffered by strong earnings

      23/11/2023 Research EN

      Swedish banks brace for subdued lending, poorer asset quality next year, buffered by strong earnings

      Earnings growth puts Swedish banks in a strong position to confront shrinking volumes, higher funding costs and the risk of higher provisions in the year ahead amid a gloomy economic outlook, says Scope Ratings.

      EU sovereign debt: climate but especially demographics present important long-term risk

      20/11/2023 Research EN

      EU sovereign debt: climate but especially demographics present important long-term risk

      Climate and demographic risks have an important if moderate impact on medium-term public debt trajectories for most EU countries but become increasingly credit relevant and mutually reinforcing in the long run, says Scope Ratings.

      Commerzbank's updated strategy promises profitable future; implementation will be challenging

      20/11/2023 Research EN

      Commerzbank's updated strategy promises profitable future; implementation will be challenging

      Commerzbank’s new three-year growth plan is reliant on durably favourable interest rates, ambitious revenue gains in private and corporate banking, plus benign banking-sector competition and buoyant activity in Germany, leaving room for disappointment.

      Germany: strict debt-brake application fosters discipline but EUR 300bn investment lag remains

      17/11/2023 Research EN

      Germany: strict debt-brake application fosters discipline but EUR 300bn investment lag remains

      The constitutional court ruling underlines Germany’s strong fiscal framework but complicates the government’s ability to address persistent under-investment, which we estimate at around EUR 300bn over the past decade vis-a-vis AAA-rated economies.

      Euro area: a potential oil-price shock could weaken growth, increase inflation and test ratings

      16/11/2023 Research EN

      Euro area: a potential oil-price shock could weaken growth, increase inflation and test ratings

      A wider Middle East conflict could adversely impact the credit ratings of some euro-area sovereigns if this resulted in higher commodity prices, leading to further monetary policy tightening to tame renewed rises in inflation, and thus weaker growth.

      Italian Bank Quarterly: growing resilience despite uncertainties

      13/11/2023 Research EN

      Italian Bank Quarterly: growing resilience despite uncertainties

      Italian bank profitability has settled at high levels thanks to wide interest margins and low provisions. Financial fundamentals are robust and banks are well placed to face a softer economic outlook and uncertainties around lending and deposit dynamics.

      Webinar – When the rubber hits the road: bank resolution, unlike supervision, is a murky concept

      8/11/2023 Research EN

      Webinar – When the rubber hits the road: bank resolution, unlike supervision, is a murky concept

      Wednesday December 13, 15:30 CET