Achieving NATO’s higher defence spending target of 3.5% of GDP will increase budget deficits and public debt across the EU, weakening sovereign credit profiles unless governments consider a mix of spending cuts, tax hikes, and joint defence funding

The Israel-Iran truce fails to permanently reduce geo-political uncertainties weighing on an already subdued economic outlook for Europe, exposed to continued volatility in energy prices, but the crisis’s impact on Europe’s economy is limited for now.

Poland’s polarised politics and institutional tensions are hindering reforms while wide budget deficits and rising structural spending are curbing fiscal space. Still, EU funds and investment inflows continue to underpin the economy’s robust fundamentals.

Les économies américaine et européenne connaîtront une croissance plus lente que prévue en 2025, contribuant à un ralentissement de la croissance économique globale. Les perspectives de l’économie mondiale restent orientées à la baisse, selon Scope Group.

The US and European economies will expand more slowly in 2025 than previously forecast, contributing to more moderate global economic growth, with risks for the global economy and global credit risk skewed to the downside, Scope Group says.

Greece’s favourable debt profile is a core credit strength but relying less on official-sector borrowing and more on market-based funding is vital to improve liquidity, deepen the pool of domestic investors and safeguard long-term debt sustainability.

BPCE’s announcement of the acquisition of 75% of Novo Banco, Portugal’s 4th largest bank, from Lone Star Funds represents an important development in European bank M&A.

Scope’s economists have been recognised by Focus Economics for a record 28 analyst awards for 2025, exceeding the previous high in 2024.

Spanish banks’ net interest margins reached their lowest level in Q1 vs 2024, yet profitability continues to improve, driven by higher loan volumes, sustained growth in fees and commissions and strict cost discipline.

UK bank profitability will remain sound in 2025. Asset quality is weakening modestly but remains resilient, capital is adequate and deposit outflows have reversed. The stable outlooks on our UK bank ratings indicate that risks are broadly balanced.