The UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to rise above official forecasts given continued pressure for more welfare and government spending unless future governments raise tax revenues, reduce the welfare state or significantly improve growth prospects.

European banks are displaying strong and stable financial and business fundamentals due to the effectiveness of the supervisory regime and practices successfully pursued since the aftermath of the global financial crisis a decade and a half ago.

As COP 28 starts, investors are once again grappling with the need to make their views count when assessing the feasibility of net-zero strategies, especially in the energy sector. This may be good news for green-bond issuance.

Earnings growth puts Swedish banks in a strong position to confront shrinking volumes, higher funding costs and the risk of higher provisions in the year ahead amid a gloomy economic outlook, says Scope Ratings.

Climate and demographic risks have an important if moderate impact on medium-term public debt trajectories for most EU countries but become increasingly credit relevant and mutually reinforcing in the long run, says Scope Ratings.

Commerzbank’s new three-year growth plan is reliant on durably favourable interest rates, ambitious revenue gains in private and corporate banking, plus benign banking-sector competition and buoyant activity in Germany, leaving room for disappointment.

The constitutional court ruling underlines Germany’s strong fiscal framework but complicates the government’s ability to address persistent under-investment, which we estimate at around EUR 300bn over the past decade vis-a-vis AAA-rated economies.

A wider Middle East conflict could adversely impact the credit ratings of some euro-area sovereigns if this resulted in higher commodity prices, leading to further monetary policy tightening to tame renewed rises in inflation, and thus weaker growth.

Italian bank profitability has settled at high levels thanks to wide interest margins and low provisions. Financial fundamentals are robust and banks are well placed to face a softer economic outlook and uncertainties around lending and deposit dynamics.

Wednesday December 13, 15:30 CET