Germany's economy will return to modest growth in the second half of this year helped by increased public spending, but elevated inflation and volatile net exports will ensure the recovery remains weak at least until 2024.

Turkey’s economy remains exposed to a disorderly adjustment following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s election victory, putting pressure on the lira and the country’s external accounts if unsustainable economic policies persist.

Spain is among the most environmentally exposed EU countries, needing to invest heavily to enhance climate resilience and meet climate commitments, but upcoming regional elections could complicate coordination of local, regional and national policies.

Regional elections in Spain (A-/Stable) this Sunday will be crucial in determining how regional governments navigate complex economic and budgetary challenges, with important national implications given the regions’ ample political and fiscal autonomy.

The policy continuity stemming from an expected re-election of New Democracy and a longer-run continuation of recent progress would support Greece’s creditworthiness.

With the presidential election heading to a run-off vote, Turkey faces multiple hurdles to recalibrate post-election economic policy to prevent deeper balance-of-payments problems, stabilise the lira, and encourage foreign direct investment.

Risks related to the misuse of the debt ceiling amid a rise in political polarisation and higher Federal deficits in coming years have compromised the credit standing of the US. Scope placed the AA issuer ratings under review for downgrade on 5 May.

France and Spain have enacted reforms this year to put pensions on a stronger financial footing and incentivise employment. But concerns remain about their long-term sustainability and the impact on the economies given similar demographic trends.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology by 05 June 2023. The proposed update refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach.

Spain's high structural unemployment and inflation pose near-term risks to an otherwise resilient and growing economy, which has led to an improved near-term fiscal outlook. Growing pension payments for an ageing population are a long-term challenge.