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      Germany: economy to rebound in 2024 on government, consumer spending after stagnation this year

      2/6/2023 Research EN

      Germany: economy to rebound in 2024 on government, consumer spending after stagnation this year

      Germany's economy will return to modest growth in the second half of this year helped by increased public spending, but elevated inflation and volatile net exports will ensure the recovery remains weak at least until 2024.

      Turkey: Erdoğan’s re-election limits prospects for tackling economic challenges, unorthodox policies

      30/5/2023 Research EN

      Turkey: Erdoğan’s re-election limits prospects for tackling economic challenges, unorthodox policies

      Turkey’s economy remains exposed to a disorderly adjustment following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s election victory, putting pressure on the lira and the country’s external accounts if unsustainable economic policies persist.

      Spain’s environmental governance challenge: regional elections take place amid rising climate risk

      26/5/2023 Research EN

      Spain’s environmental governance challenge: regional elections take place amid rising climate risk

      Spain is among the most environmentally exposed EU countries, needing to invest heavily to enhance climate resilience and meet climate commitments, but upcoming regional elections could complicate coordination of local, regional and national policies.

      Spain’s regional elections offer chance for economic, fiscal reform; political fragmentation a risk

      25/5/2023 Research EN

      Spain’s regional elections offer chance for economic, fiscal reform; political fragmentation a risk

      Regional elections in Spain (A-/Stable) this Sunday will be crucial in determining how regional governments navigate complex economic and budgetary challenges, with important national implications given the regions’ ample political and fiscal autonomy.

      Greece: first-round election result is credit positive, reducing policy uncertainty

      23/5/2023 Research EN

      Greece: first-round election result is credit positive, reducing policy uncertainty

      The policy continuity stemming from an expected re-election of New Democracy and a longer-run continuation of recent progress would support Greece’s creditworthiness.

      Turkey: close election outcome worsens long-running uncertainty over economic policy

      16/5/2023 Research EN

      Turkey: close election outcome worsens long-running uncertainty over economic policy

      With the presidential election heading to a run-off vote, Turkey faces multiple hurdles to recalibrate post-election economic policy to prevent deeper balance-of-payments problems, stabilise the lira, and encourage foreign direct investment.

      Longer-run risks from the debt ceiling compromise US credit standing

      15/5/2023 Research EN

      Longer-run risks from the debt ceiling compromise US credit standing

      Risks related to the misuse of the debt ceiling amid a rise in political polarisation and higher Federal deficits in coming years have compromised the credit standing of the US. Scope placed the AA issuer ratings under review for downgrade on 5 May.

      France and Spain take different paths on pension reform; demographic challenges remain

      10/5/2023 Research EN

      France and Spain take different paths on pension reform; demographic challenges remain

      France and Spain have enacted reforms this year to put pensions on a stronger financial footing and incentivise employment. But concerns remain about their long-term sustainability and the impact on the economies given similar demographic trends.

      Scope proposes an update to its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology and calls for comment

      5/5/2023 Research EN

      Scope proposes an update to its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology and calls for comment

      Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology by 05 June 2023. The proposed update refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach.

      Spain: fiscal outlook improves on resilient economy but jobs, inflation, pension challenges remain

      2/5/2023 Research EN

      Spain: fiscal outlook improves on resilient economy but jobs, inflation, pension challenges remain

      Spain's high structural unemployment and inflation pose near-term risks to an otherwise resilient and growing economy, which has led to an improved near-term fiscal outlook. Growing pension payments for an ageing population are a long-term challenge.