The Russian rouble’s fortunes are increasingly disconnected from the health of the Russian economy as international sanctions tighten in response to the war in Ukraine, says Scope Ratings.

Scope updates and clarifies its definition of default and long-term vs short-sterm correspondance table. This update does not impact any outstanding credit ratings.

The EU (AAA/Stable) could provide Ukraine with at least EUR 10-12bn in direct emergency support, reflecting its considerable financial buffers to offset, at least partially, the impact of the war with Russia, says Scope Ratings.

The EU’s proposal to temporarily exempt landlocked member states like Hungary and Slovakia from its planned Russian oil embargo provides extra time to switch to alternative energy sources at the risk of retaliation from Russia.

Italy faces a period of low growth and high inflation due to its manufacturing-based economy’s reliance on Russian energy and vulnerability to volatile raw material prices and disrupted supply chains, but stimulus from EU funds should prevent stagflation.

Scope Ratings has published an update to its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology. The update strengthens, refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach.

Covid-19 left a relatively short-lived mark on the economic and fiscal outlooks of Finland and Sweden, which are well positioned to face the economic impacts of war in Ukraine. Exposure to geopolitical risks is now at the top of government agendas.

Unaddressed structural challenges and external shocks underpin the importance of reforms for France’s credit outlook. But growing social discontent and a less buoyant economic environment could weaken the possibility of new reforms.

Diverging approaches among EU member states to Russia’s terms for gas payments risk undermining the EU’s political unity at a time when solidarity and co-ordination are critical to meet energy needs and cushion inflationary pressures.

Hungary could face major cuts in EU funding for breaching the rule of law as the EU activates the conditionality principle in its budgetary framework. This could improve the use of EU funds across countries, strengthening governance in the medium term.