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10/5/2022 Research EN
Russia: tougher sanctions widen disconnect between rouble and economy, increasing retaliation risk
The Russian rouble’s fortunes are increasingly disconnected from the health of the Russian economy as international sanctions tighten in response to the war in Ukraine, says Scope Ratings.

9/5/2022 Research EN
EU retains multibillion-euro spare funding capacity to further support member states, Ukraine
The EU (AAA/Stable) could provide Ukraine with at least EUR 10-12bn in direct emergency support, reflecting its considerable financial buffers to offset, at least partially, the impact of the war with Russia, says Scope Ratings.

6/5/2022 Research EN
EU’s oil embargo proposal strikes delicate balance; Hungary risks further isolation
The EU’s proposal to temporarily exempt landlocked member states like Hungary and Slovakia from its planned Russian oil embargo provides extra time to switch to alternative energy sources at the risk of retaliation from Russia.

6/5/2022 Research EN
Italy: lower growth, higher inflation than euro area peers, yet EU funds should avert stagflation
Italy faces a period of low growth and high inflation due to its manufacturing-based economy’s reliance on Russian energy and vulnerability to volatile raw material prices and disrupted supply chains, but stimulus from EU funds should prevent stagflation.

4/5/2022 Research EN
Finland, Sweden: Covid-19 resilience creates buffers against conflict costs and geopolitical risks
Covid-19 left a relatively short-lived mark on the economic and fiscal outlooks of Finland and Sweden, which are well positioned to face the economic impacts of war in Ukraine. Exposure to geopolitical risks is now at the top of government agendas.

3/5/2022 Research EN
President Macron faces narrow path to reform given less favourable socio-economic conditions
Unaddressed structural challenges and external shocks underpin the importance of reforms for France’s credit outlook. But growing social discontent and a less buoyant economic environment could weaken the possibility of new reforms.

2/5/2022 Research EN
Russian gas stoppages stress EU’s political unity and economic outlook, accelerate Russian gas exit
Diverging approaches among EU member states to Russia’s terms for gas payments risk undermining the EU’s political unity at a time when solidarity and co-ordination are critical to meet energy needs and cushion inflationary pressures.

29/4/2022 Research EN
Hungary: triggering EU conditionality mechanism could lead to major funding cuts
Hungary could face major cuts in EU funding for breaching the rule of law as the EU activates the conditionality principle in its budgetary framework. This could improve the use of EU funds across countries, strengthening governance in the medium term.