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19/9/2022 Research EN
Russia: Western sanctions, war in Ukraine exacerbate structural economic weaknesses
The Russian government, helped by the Bank of Russia, has used windfall export revenues to mitigate the immediate domestic economic impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions, but the longer-term outlook has worsened.
16/9/2022 Research EN
Italy: institutional, political, market constraints to ensure broad post-election policy continuity
Political and economic constraints – domestic and European – will likely limit any new Italian government’s room for rolling back reforms and pursuing unorthodox economic or loose fiscal policies, containing risks to Italy’s BBB+/Stable ratings.
15/9/2022 Research EN
Baltics: small, open economies face highest European inflation; underlying credit resilience intact
Skyrocketing inflation is undermining economic growth in the Baltic states. Without a solution to Europe’s energy crisis, the countries face continued elevated price pressure, given the limited impact of rate hikes and still tight labour markets.
9/9/2022 Research EN
Hungary: policy uncertainty, EU dispute test fiscal flexibility, effective response to energy crisis
Hungary, like much of Central and Eastern Europe, faces tough economic challenges linked to the war in Ukraine, but uneven fiscal consolidation and regulation, and the unresolved dispute with the EU, jeopardise the effectiveness of government's response.
8/9/2022 Research EN
Türkiye: balance-of-payments tension rises; stopgap efforts to stabilise lira increase risks
The Turkish government’s prioritisation of short-run growth over sustainable economic policies ahead of next year’s elections continues unchecked. This increases risk of a severe financing squeeze unless authorities change course.
5/9/2022 Research EN
UK: Truss government faces immediate fiscal credibility challenge amid tax, spending promises
New UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’s tax-cutting and spending plans risk straining public finances and investor confidence if reforms do not also enhance fiscal credibility and preserve the independence of financial regulators and the Bank of England.
29/8/2022 Research EN
Germany: fiscal strength and financial reserves sufficient to weather severe energy shock
Germany has the fiscal buffers and adequate financial reserves to weather a severe energy shock, though material damage to growth prospects could result from the continued disruptions of Russian gas supplies and even higher energy prices.