2/6/2023 Research EN
Germany: economy to rebound in 2024 on government, consumer spending after stagnation this year
Germany's economy will return to modest growth in the second half of this year helped by increased public spending, but elevated inflation and volatile net exports will ensure the recovery remains weak at least until 2024.
30/5/2023 Research EN
Turkey: Erdoğan’s re-election limits prospects for tackling economic challenges, unorthodox policies
Turkey’s economy remains exposed to a disorderly adjustment following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s election victory, putting pressure on the lira and the country’s external accounts if unsustainable economic policies persist.
26/5/2023 Research EN
Spain’s environmental governance challenge: regional elections take place amid rising climate risk
Spain is among the most environmentally exposed EU countries, needing to invest heavily to enhance climate resilience and meet climate commitments, but upcoming regional elections could complicate coordination of local, regional and national policies.
25/5/2023 Research EN
Spain’s regional elections offer chance for economic, fiscal reform; political fragmentation a risk
Regional elections in Spain (A-/Stable) this Sunday will be crucial in determining how regional governments navigate complex economic and budgetary challenges, with important national implications given the regions’ ample political and fiscal autonomy.
23/5/2023 Research EN
Greece: first-round election result is credit positive, reducing policy uncertainty
The policy continuity stemming from an expected re-election of New Democracy and a longer-run continuation of recent progress would support Greece’s creditworthiness.
16/5/2023 Research EN
Turkey: close election outcome worsens long-running uncertainty over economic policy
With the presidential election heading to a run-off vote, Turkey faces multiple hurdles to recalibrate post-election economic policy to prevent deeper balance-of-payments problems, stabilise the lira, and encourage foreign direct investment.
15/5/2023 Research EN
Longer-run risks from the debt ceiling compromise US credit standing
Risks related to the misuse of the debt ceiling amid a rise in political polarisation and higher Federal deficits in coming years have compromised the credit standing of the US. Scope placed the AA issuer ratings under review for downgrade on 5 May.
10/5/2023 Research EN
France and Spain take different paths on pension reform; demographic challenges remain
France and Spain have enacted reforms this year to put pensions on a stronger financial footing and incentivise employment. But concerns remain about their long-term sustainability and the impact on the economies given similar demographic trends.
5/5/2023 Research EN
Scope proposes an update to its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology and calls for comment
Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Government Related Entities Rating Methodology by 05 June 2023. The proposed update refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach.
2/5/2023 Research EN
Spain: fiscal outlook improves on resilient economy but jobs, inflation, pension challenges remain
Spain's high structural unemployment and inflation pose near-term risks to an otherwise resilient and growing economy, which has led to an improved near-term fiscal outlook. Growing pension payments for an ageing population are a long-term challenge.