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      Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations

      21/5/2024 Research EN

      Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations

      With our negative CRE outlook persisting and the collateral values of CRE loans volatile, covenant breaches are also driving up NPLs. Regulators are seeking to address value volatility, but Pfandbriefe are shielded because of cover-pool eligibility caps.

      German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern

      13/5/2024 Research EN

      German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern

      EU supervisors remain concerned that banks’ real-estate exposure is vulnerable, and US contagion risk is an issue. But while German banks’ CRE portfolios are unlikely to have endangered the safe-haven status of Pfandbriefe, office exposure is a worry.

      Covered Bond Quarterly: Have German banks put Pfandbriefe at risk?

      17/4/2024 Research EN

      Covered Bond Quarterly: Have German banks put Pfandbriefe at risk?

      After a strong January, EUR benchmark covered bond issuance slowed in February and March. Some of the reluctance to issue may have been driven by Germany’s specialised commercial mortgage lenders, given rising tensions in commercial real estate.

      Systemic risk remains high in European housing market

      23/1/2024 Research EN

      Systemic risk remains high in European housing market

      Housing affordability is stretched and systemic risk a concern. Policy measures to improve financial system resilience can help. Germany might introduce borrower-based measures but they will need to be carefully calibrated to avoid further curbing supply.

      Covered Bond Outlook: Back to a credit-driven buyer’s market

      22/1/2024 Research EN

      Covered Bond Outlook: Back to a credit-driven buyer’s market

      Active covered-bond supply so far this year is testament to a functioning market, but the end of ECB asset purchases has shown that the waters can become choppy: issuers and arrangers have to take care around timing and investor appetite.

      Covered Bond Quarterly: H1 primary deluge leads to market strains

      24/7/2023 Research EN

      Covered Bond Quarterly: H1 primary deluge leads to market strains

      The covered bond market saw USD 187bn-equivalent primary supply YTD to 19 July. The pace of issuance caused some strains at the end of Q2 as buyers succumbed to fatigue, pushing issuers to adopt a more cautious approach to pricing into the summer break.

      Scope updates its Counterparty Risk Methodology

      13/7/2023 Research EN

      Scope updates its Counterparty Risk Methodology

      Existing ratings are not impacted

      Inflation fuels real house-price declines across Europe

      6/7/2023 Research EN

      Inflation fuels real house-price declines across Europe

      House prices fell in real terms in all but two countries of the EEA in the year to Q1 2023, led by Sweden with a 15.2% decline and Germany with 14%. Across Europe, there was a real weighted average fall of 8.4%.

      Scope updates its covered bond rating methodology

      24/5/2023 Research EN

      Scope updates its covered bond rating methodology

      The updated methodology, now final following a call-for-coment period, will apply to all covered bonds ratings.

      US woes reveal where covered bonds are most vulnerable

      16/5/2023 Research EN

      US woes reveal where covered bonds are most vulnerable

      Recent events regarding Credit Suisse and US regional banks have a direct read-across to covered bonds in that it was not credit quality but liquidity that led to the banks’ downfall, plus the crystallisation of market-value losses on high-quality assets.